Englund

Founded two years ago and backed by Jeff Bezos,  Perplexity is a combination search engine and AI chatbot. It scours the web for current information like Google and provides answers to questions like ChatGPT. Perplexity currently earns money by selling premium subscriptions to consumers.  It recently launched an enterprise version for corporate customers that searches their internal files  Wall Street Journal 20 October 2024 https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/ai-startup-perplexity-in-funding-talks-to-more-than-double-valuation-to-8-billion-54d36787 Perplexity: Snillrik AI-sökmotor https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/07/perplexity-snillrik-ai-sokmotor.html Ett exempel

  The extra yield that investors demand to hold speculative-grade corporate bonds over U.S. Treasurys fell to 2.85 percentage points last week, just a touch higher than the 14-year lows reached in 2021 It is a sign investors have few concerns that the economy is on the verge of a slowdown that would spark bankruptcies and defaults among lower-rated companies. Wall Street Journal 21 October 2024 https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/red-hot-bond-market-powers-wave-of-risky-borrowing-57886b52

 You already own a computer and pay for internet access, and OpenAI and others offer limited-use services for free. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-ai-bubble-is-looking-worse-than-the-dot-com-bubble-heres-why-f688e11d OpenAI’s Complex Path to Becoming a For-Profit Company https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/09/openais-complex-path-to-becoming-for.html

  Det är en av de centrala delarna av det svenska finanssystemet som nu säljs Samtidigt är frågan vad de anställda som motiverats av att vara delägare tycker om att bli vanliga anställda i en delstatlig norsk storbank i stället. Det finns en hel del egensinniga personer på en firma som Carnegie När statliga PK-banken, numera Nordea, köpte Carnegie i slutet på 1980-talet blev det en tämligen misslyckad konstruktion med stora kulturkrockar. I mitten på 1990-talet såldes Carnegie också vidare. Torbjörn Isacson DI 21 oktober 2024 https://www.di.se/analys/valkommen-miljardvinst-for-mix-och-altor/ Den norska storbanken DNB Bank köper alla aktier i den svenska investmentbanken Carnegie Holding AB. Prislappen landar på 12 miljarder. SvD/TT 21 oktober 2024 https://www.svd.se/a/o39jb0/dnb-koper-carnegie-for-12-miljarder Carnegie köper Erik Penser Banks värdepappersrörelse. Familjen Penser blir storägare i Carnegie. ”Det är trevligt att komma tillbaka”, säger finansveteranen Erik Penser som 1969

  The two companies once set the standard for world class engineering and manufacturing.  In the past five years the combined market value of the two has fallen by half.   The U.S. is in a geopolitical contest with China defined not just by military power but economic and technological prowess.  Leaders from both U.S. political parties say they are on the case, pushing for tariffs and subsidies. The U.S. still designs the world’s most innovative products, but is losing the knack for making them. At the end of 1999, four of the 10 most valuable U.S. companies were manufacturers. Today, none are.  The lone rising star: Tesla, which ranked 11th. Neither fell prey to cheap foreign competition, but to their own mistakes. Their culture evolved to prioritize financial performance over engineering excellence, which also brought down another manufacturing icon, General Electric. Without Boeing, that business would go to Airbus and, eventually, China’s state-owned Comac, which is now delivering

Market strategists think the increasingly high valuation of the S&P 500 will squeeze out further room to run To predict simultaneously that an already strong market will have a great next 12 months and a poor next 10 years does imply  even, conceivably, a bubble. In the short term, markets are creatures of what Keynes called animal spirits. Things are moving emphatically in a bullish direction, making it hard to stand in the way in the short term. For the long term, scarcely anything matters other than valuation. The more expensive a stock when you buy it, the less of a return you’re likely to get for it over a decade or more.  The most widely followed measure of long-term value is the CAPE (Cyclically Adjusted Price/Earnings multiple) There are reasons why the CAPE would rise over time, as profitability and productivity grow. But it’s disconcerting that the S&P is more expensive than on the eve of the Great Crash in 1929, and not much cheaper than when the dot-com bubble burst

Inger Arenander SvD 20 oktober 2024 https://www.svd.se/a/25q1Kx/hans-dahlgren-om-memoarerna-i-fem-statsministrars-tjanst Tsunamibanden blir inte offentliga Uppdaterad 28 november 2012 Publicerad 26 november 2009 Regeringskansliets säkerhetskopierade material, som till exempel den elektroniska trafiken i samband med tsunamikatastrofen julen 2004, ska inte vara allmänna handlingar. Därmed kan de inte heller begäras ut av medborgarna. Det föreslår som väntat nu regeringen i en proposition till riksdagen. Beslutet togs vid torsdagens sammanträde och innebär att tryckfrihetsförordningen, en av Sveriges grundlagar, ändras. https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/tsunamibanden-blir-inte-offentliga Ministrarna i den svenska regeringen talade inte med varandra under hela det första dygnet efter tsunamikatastrofen. Det framgår i de tidigare hemligstämplade förhören som Katastrofkommissionen haft med de statsråd som var ansvariga för hanteringen av katastrofen där 543 svenskar omkom. Biståndsminister

  Stock market rotation ‘lifeblood’ of the bull market The financial sector has the highest percentage of stocks beating the S&P 500 this year   “Most people are surprised by that,” as they tend to think it’s technology Tesla has a market value of more than $700 billion MarketWatch 20 October 2024 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-rotation-in-stocks-is-the-bull-markets-lifeblood-as-s-p-500-logs-record-peak-e9f11974 Tillbaka till Wall Street och Stockholm 21 oktober 2024 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/10/wall-street-och-stockholm-21-oktober.html  

  ELA i Europaparlamentet https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/10/ela-i-europaparlamentet.html DNB köper Carnegie; Penser storägare i Carnegie;  "Penser är slut, utblottad, färdig, https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/10/dnb-koper-carnegie-penser-storagare-i.html Hans Dahlgren har skrivit sina memoarer ”I fem statsministrars tjänst” https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/10/hans-dahlgren-har-skrivit-sina-memoarer.html Wall Street Lost Decade — But Not Yet https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/10/wall-street-lost-decade-but-not-yet.html Crises at Boeing and Intel National Emergency https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/10/crises-at-boeing-and-intel-national.html  “The bull market is alive and well,” said Adam Turnquist https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/10/the-bull-market-is-alive-and-well-said.html Börsen stänger nära dagslägsta rapportmiss sänkte Sandvik https://www.di.se/live/borsen-stanger-nara-dagslagsta-rapportmiss-sankte-sandvik/ ”Det är inte alls ovanligt att mark

  Vänsterpartiets nya EU-parlamentariker Hanna Gedin tillsammans med representanter från övriga partier i ELA från Danmark, Finland, Frankrike, Polen, Portugal och Spanien.  Foto: Charlotta Asplund Catot/Altinget I dagarna var hon med på den officiella lanseringen av det nystartade europeiska partiet European Left Alliance for the People and the Planet (ELA) – ett samarbete mellan sju europeiska vänsterpartier som Altinget tidigare rapporterat om. Altinget 21 oktober 2024 V-parlamentarikern Hanna Gedin: ”Vi måste visa på alternativ till ytterhögern” - Altinget - Allt om politik: altinget.se Tillbaka till Wall Street och Stockholm 21 oktober 2024 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/10/wall-street-och-stockholm-21-oktober.html

 German success in the 2010s reflected the country’s competitive advantage against the rest of Europe.  At the start of the century, Germany was struggling with reunification. Its price level was higher than others in the common-currency area.  Then, in the early 2000s the Hartz reforms, which included labour-market liberalisation, put a lid on costs by weakening labour’s bargaining power.  At the same time, debt-fuelled growth in southern Europe drove the price level higher in the euro area as a whole. By 2019 the price-level gap between Germany and the rest of the euro area had narrowed. The impact of the energy squeeze, with Germany especially reliant on Russian gas, pushed the country’s price level higher. For the first time in more than two decades, Germany does not have a cost advantage over its euro-zone peers. More government spending could provide a boost, but ministers are constrained by self-imposed fiscal rules.  Annual net public investment has fallen from 1% of GDP in the

 Priserna på bostäder och aktier har stigit till rekordnivåer.  Enbart sedan 1980 har hushållens samlade förmögenhet ökat sjufalt efter justering för inflation. I dag utgör bostäder och fonderat pensions­sparande fyra femtedelar av allt ägande i Sverige. Har den stigande svenska förmögenhets­koncentrationen på senare tid skett på övriga gruppers bekostnad? Inte mycket tyder på det.  Bostadsägande ökar jämlikheten i förmögenheter. Daniel Waldenström SvD 19 oktober 2024 https://www.svd.se/a/eMqO2Q/daniel-waldenstrom-sa-blir-vi-rikare-och-minskar-klyftorn a professor i national­ekonomi och docent i ekonomisk historia, Institutet för näringslivs­forskning https://www.ifn.se/om-ifn/

 – En fördubbling av försvarsanslagen som vi genomfört de senaste åren, i kombination med ungefär 173 miljarder ytterligare fram till 2030 från nuvarande nivå, ger en mycket hög siffra i en internationell jämförelse, säger Pål Jonson. Fyra brigader färdiga till 2030 Aftonbladet 17 oktober 2024 https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/nymBVB/sa-kommer-sveriges-nya-forsvar-att-se-ut Tillbaka till Wall Street och Stockholm 19-20 oktober 2024 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/10/wall-street-och-stockholm-19-20-oktober.html

  Few sights have better captured America’s world-beating ingenuity.  On October 13th a giant booster rocket built by SpaceX hurtled to the edge of the atmosphere before plunging back to Earth and being neatly caught by the gantry tower from which, only minutes earlier, it had taken off.  Yet, just as the launch was a testimony to American enterprise, so Elon Musk, SpaceX’s founder, captures all that is going wrong with its politics. In his support for Donald Trump The Economist 17 October 2024 https://www.economist.com/leaders/2024/10/17/americas-economy-is-bigger-and-better-than-ever U.S. trade deficit in August goods narrows to $94 billion.  11.300 miljarder SEK på årsbasis. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/09/us-trade-deficit-in-goods-narrows-to-94.html Tillbaka till Wall Street och Stockholm 19-20 oktober 2024 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/10/wall-street-och-stockholm-19-20-oktober.html

  Why Russia-Ukraine War Is So Hard to Win, and How It Might End Bloomberg 10 juli 2024 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2024-07-10/why-russia-ukraine-war-is-so-hard-to-win-and-how-it-might-end A divided West is looking for a way to end its support for resisting Putin’s invasion. Even if Kamala Harris reaches the White House, it is likely she will pursue a deal to end the war because Washington sees no scenario for Ukrainian victory, despite the dispatch of $175 billion in US aid.  President Zelenskiy’s tour of Europe earlier this month to promote his so-called “Victory Plan” secured supportive rhetoric, but little more.  In Ukraine itself, after almost three years in which it has been deemed treasonable to speak of any acceptable outcome of the war except victory and the expulsion of the Russians from the Donbas, today many people speak instead of negotiations.  They acknowledge that it is unlikely Putin’s forces can be dispossessed of their gains, which are still increasing. A

  Let’s look at how US home prices changed https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/10/lets-look-at-how-us-home-prices-changed.html US Interest Burden Hits 28-Year High; IMF warnings; typ överskottsmålet https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/10/us-interest-burden-hits-28-year-high.html The Economist: America’s economy is bigger and better than ever https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/10/the-economist-americas-economy-is.html Selling Out Ukraine Casts Shame on the West https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/10/selling-out-ukraine-casts-shame-on-west.html Germany’s economy goes from bad to worse  https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/10/the-economist-germanys-economy-goes.html Så blir Sveriges nya försvar https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/10/sa-blir-sveriges-nya-forsvar.html Favorit i repris; två tredjedelar av de pengar de svenska bankerna lånar upp är i utländsk valuta https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/10/favorit-i-repris-tva-tredjedelar-av-de.html Turkiet, Tyskland och EU

  Treasury’s 2024 interest bill exceeded US spending on defense The climb reflects a historically big fiscal gap, higher rates The Treasury spent $882 billion on net interest payments  The cost was the equivalent of 3.06% as a share of gross domestic product, the highest ratio since 1996. The Fed’s short-term benchmark rate averaged less than 0.75% over the decade through 2019; policymakers in September projected the rate would settle around 2.9% in time. Bloomberg 19 October 2024  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-19/us-interest-burden-hits-28-year-high-escalating-political-risk IMF urges debt reduction as finance chiefs meet in Washington Even before global finance chiefs fly into Washington over the next few days, they’ve been urged in advance by the International Monetary Fund to tighten their belts. The fund, whose annual meetings  https://www.imfconnect.org/content/imf/en/meetings/AM24.html begin on Monday Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva, in a speech on Thurs

  The chart shows quarterly HUD data for actual selling prices For sales in Q2 2014, the average price was $288,000. Ten years later in Q2 2024 it was $426,800, a 48.2% increase.  That was actually down a bit from the Q4 2022 peak, when the average selling price was $442,600, a 53.7% increase in 8½ years.  Notice, however, when most of the gains occurred. Home prices zoomed higher in the COVID era, gaining 39.6% in the 2½ years from Q2 2020.  I think the COVID-driven monetary and fiscal stimulus was a much bigger factor. The Fed’s easy policy made borrowing cheap while other programs put cash in people’s pockets.  Consumer goods spending boosted profits at many businesses. This led to higher salaries, bonuses, and stock prices. A small number of business owners and executives ended up with a lot of extra money, some of which went to buying new homes.  Naturally, prices rose. A similar trend unfolded in rental properties.  Homeownership became “the American Dream” in the post-WW2 period

 “The growth is there and it’s still driven by the consumer,” she said. “Earnings season will be pretty robust. We will see more surprises to the upside than to the downside. We are very bullish.” Of course, extending a rally that has seen the S&P 500 nearly double since the start of 2020 would be no mean feat, with the index trading at 24 times annual earnings, one of its higher multiples outside the 1990s technology bubble.  Bloomberg 18 October 2024  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-18/wall-street-s-nonstop-rally-mints-new-class-of-hardcore-bulls Einhorn says it’s the most expensive stock market in decades; 30 to 50 times earnings https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/10/einhorn-says-its-most-expensive-stock.html Den amerikanska aktiemarknaden har sedan 2009 ökat med nästan 1 000 procent https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/10/den-amerikanska-aktiemarknaden-har.html Tillbaka till Wall Street och Stockholm 19-20 oktober 2024 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/202

Are home prices in some areas being driven down by people fleeing the parts of the Sunshine State most prone to flooding and high insurance costs?  Or are developers snatching up storm-ravaged land to build new — and more expensive — homes in those same places?  Or are people moving just in from the shore, displacing those on higher ground and making housing there less affordable? The answer to all these questions is yes. Finally, everybody needs to accept that part of this process will inevitably involve giving up the dream of a single-family mansion on the beach or in a lovely wildfire zone. Climate change is increasingly turning such dreams into nightmares. “We don’t let people build on crumbling cliffs or active volcanoes. Why do we let them build in other risky places?” Siders asked.  “The debate is over the right level of risk. But right now we’re not even willing to engage in that debate.” Mark Gongloff Bloomberg 17 October 2024  https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-1

Det är skillnad på inlåning och upplåning. Den 15 september 2007 drabbades den brittiska banken Northern Rock av en kundrusning. Finanskrisen var igång, men världens andra banker körde obekymrat på. About "The Great Recession" The Subprime Credit Crunch at IntCom Ett år senare, den 15 september 2008, kollapsade den amerikanska investmentbanken Lehman Brothers och permafrosten tog blixtsnabbt grepp om de globala finansmarknaderna. Birgitta Forsberg SvD 2018-04-30 Bankerna kan få problem eftersom två tredjedelar av de pengar de lånar upp är utländsk valuta. The alchemy is “the belief that money kept in banks can be taken out whenever depositors ask for it” https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2016/06/the-alchemy-is-belief-that-money-kept.html Bankernas utlandslån 8.000 miljarder kronor Patricia Hedelius SvD 8 oktober 2018 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2018/10/bankernas-utlandslan-8000-miljarder.html Copilot förklarar Källa: Samtal med Copilot, 2024-10-19 Bankernas inlåning och

  For many years now, Germany has been Turkey's most important trading partner and the largest foreign investor. More than three million people with Turkish roots live in Germany. The EU has now paid Turkey almost €10 billion to care for refugees in Turkey, 3.6 million of whom are Syrian. Following the Turkish military offensive in northern Syria, German arms exports to Turkey were significantly restricted in 2019. In the meantime, Germany's government has reportedly eased its restrictions.  Der Spiegel reported that German arms deliveries to Turkey worth at least €236 million were approved in September 2024. These also included anti-aircraft missiles and torpedoes. Political scientist Hürcan Asli Aksoy expects that Germany will now also give the green light for the Eurofighter. DeutscheWelle 19 October 2024 https://www.dw.com/en/germanys-olaf-scholz-holds-difficult-talks-in-turkey/a-70524813  Tillbaka till Wall Street och Stockholm 19-20 oktober 2024 https://englundmacro.blogs

  It can be harder to spot market tops than bottoms. The latter usually come with signs of fundamental market stress and acute investor fear. In contrast, “investor optimism can become a chronic condition. Equity summits are typically extended and marked by rotation as narratives across different styles and industry segments are pushed to exhaustion,”  But what might be the catalysts that causes the invincibility syndrome to crack? Grant thinks that the current consensus among investors that only a recession can kill the bull market is wrong “Today’s ‘invincibility syndrome’ implies that when financial markets change their mind, they can do so in a profound way,” he adds. MarketWatch 18 October 2024 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-investors-should-be-worried-about-the-markets-invincibility-syndrome-54e7b037 “the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.” https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2022/08/the-market-can-remain-irrational-longer.html Interesting times

 Space Exploration Technologies Corp.’s reusable Falcon 9 is today the world’s most flown rocket, a milestone in bringing down the cost of space transportation.  It gives SpaceX a “de facto” monopoly on launch missions slinging payload like satellites into orbit.  And that dominance extends to its own Starlink satellites, 6,000 of which orbit the Earth, offering high-speed internet almost anywhere.   Lionel Laurent Bloomberg 18 October 2024  https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-10-18/musk-and-spacex-rivals-can-t-seem-to-catch-up Elon Musk: Offering Young Men an American Dream; campaigns for Trump https://www.wsj.com/tech/on-the-campaign-trail-with-elon-musk-offering-young-men-an-american- dream-05bd0349 SpaceX Starlink Thierry Breton, the European Union commissioner for the internal market, issued an unprecedented warning to Elon Musk that Monday’s interview of former President Donald Trump on the X social-media platformcould run afoul of the EU’s new sweeping online laws ai

  Alltfler av Europas nationalister inser att vi behöver den gemensamma valutan. Det borde även gälla sverigedemokrater.  DI Ledare:Carl-Vincent Reimers 18 oktober 2024  https://www.di.se/ledare/sd-borde-andra-sig-om-euron-1/  S och M förbereder statskupp? Ett införande av euron är en i praktiken irreversibel process, jfr Grekland. Då måste vi följa med på tåget mot ett federalt rike.  De som vill avskaffa vårt lands suveränitet, i strid med tidigare folkomröstningsresultat, får faktiskt besvära sig med att fråga folkets en gång till. Rolf Englund  9 januari 2023 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2023/01/s-och-m-forbereder-statskupp.html Tillbaka till Wall Street och Stockholm 18 oktober 2024 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/10/wall-street-och-stockholm-18-oktober.html

FI förtydligade hur banker ska beräkna NSFR, på svenska kallat stabil nettofinansieringskvot.  FI uppgav att bankerna endast får tillgodoräkna sig 50 procent av den obundna inlåning som kommer via inlåningsplattformar, där många nischbanker inkluderat minst 90 procent. Med den beräkningsmetod som Norion fortfarande använder uppgår NSFR till 141 procent – långt över kravet på 100 procent.  Men med den beräkningsmetod som FI anser är korrekt, och som måste användas vid nästa kvartalsrapport, är den nuvarande nivån alltså endast 103 procent. DI 18 oktober 2024 https://www.di.se/nyheter/erik-selins-nischbank-nara-att-bryta-mot-likviditetskrav/ Nischbanken Norion, tidigare Collector - RE: Kanske skulle kraven på att bli bank skärpas. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/04/nischbanken-norion-tidigare-collector.html Balders grundare och vd Erik Selin berättar https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/07/balders-grundare-och-vd-erik-selin.html RE: Det är för aktörer av detta slag som kohorten

Det gör såväl den svenska ekonomin som svenska hushåll sårbara.  Åtgärder har vidtagits men mer behöver göras för att komma till rätta med osunda lånesituationer Daniel Barr, generaldirektör Finansinspektionen DI 18 oktober 2024 https://www.di.se/debatt/hog-skuldsattning-stor-risk-for-ekonomin/ Tillbaka till Wall Street och Stockholm 18 oktober 2024 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/10/wall-street-och-stockholm-18-oktober.html

  Photographer: Chris Ratcliffe/Bloomberg Odin, which operates out of London, Singapore and Hong Kong,  has placed more than 900 executives at international financial institutions  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-18/headhunter-said-to-use-fake-identities-to-dupe-wall-street-traders Harris Says Sinwar’s Death Is Opportunity to End Gaza War https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/10/harris-says-sinwars-death-is.html SD borde ändra sig om euron, anser Dagens Industri https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/10/sd-borde-andra-sig-om-euron-anser.html In Space, No One Can Hear Musk's Rivals Scream; Musk support Trump; and makes Tesla https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/10/in-space-no-one-can-hear-musks-rivals.html Svenska hushåll tillhör de mest skuldsatta i världen https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/10/svenska-hushall-tillhor-de-mest.html Erik Selins nischbank Norion https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/10/erik-selins-nischbank-norion.html Apple, Netflix och Nvidia