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2020-07-13

Ivestment gains since early 2017 have been completely dominated by Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet GOOG and Facebook

Here’s what the Wilshire 5000, a market-capitalization-weighted gauge of all U.S. stocks, has done since January 2017, minus the Giant 5.

MarketWatch 13 July 2020

Kommentar av Englund:
Knapptryckarna i Stockholm brukar nära följa kurserna i New York.
Men Sverige har ju inte Apple och dom andra giganterna.


Dow





This financial system is light years away from the postwar model, where banks borrowed from retail depositors and lent to individuals and companies.

The chief source of funds is not deposits but repurchase agreements or repos, a form of borrowing that has to be backed by collateral in the form of “safe” assets such as government bonds.

About Capital Wars: The Rise of Global Liquidity, by Michael Howell

John Plender FT 13 July 2020



2020-07-10

Anders Borg, Barbro Hedvall och Göran Persson

 Sverige mötte alla tiders finanskris 2008 och klarade sig tack vare en erfaren och bestämd styrman, finansministern. Då hette han Anders Borg

Hans läge var också betydligt bättre än föregångarnas hade varit. Budgetsaneringen, som bär Göran Perssons märke, hade gjort Sverige starkare.

Barbro Hedvall DN 9 juli 2020


Göran Persson om 90-talet: Vi gjorde mycket fel, naturligtvis. 
Kanske borde vi ha sparat lite mindre.




Löntagarfonder i Socialistisk Politiks textarkiv

The leveraging of America: how companies became addicted to debt

FT Series The new social contract

The Federal Reserve pledged in April to buy trillions of dollars of debt, much of it owed by the corporate sector.

This is the second time in just over a decade that the Fed has mobilised the full force of its balance sheet to put a floor under creaking credit markets.

FT 10 July 2020



2020-07-09

Det fria näringslivets försvarare: Timbros tidiga historia


I början av 1960-talet lades Byrån för ekonomisk information ned i samband med att den drivande Tore Sellberg slutade. I stället satsade Fonden tillsammans med ett antal företag knutna till Wallenberggruppen på det som med tiden fick namnet Utredningsbyrån för samhällsfrågor.

Rikard Westerberg Smedjan 8 oktober 2018


BBVA sold a 1 billion-euro additional tier-1 perpetual note CoCos

CoCos are popular because they pay more interest than other debt, in exchange for investors being at the front of the queue to bear losses if the bank fails.

In this case the coupon was 6%.

Bloomberg 9 July 2020


Cocos on my website


2020-07-08

Jankowski’s All Against All and Robert Gerwarth’s November 1918

are two of the most stimulating histories of the interwar period to have been published in recent years.

Because we know that the period ended in the most destructive war in history, it is tempting to conclude that this outcome was foreordained in events 10 or 20 years earlier. 

Such determinism often comes with an assumption that there was something inevitable about the collapse of Germany’s democratic Weimar Republic


Heinrich Brüning Popular mythology in Germany has it that the Weimar hyperinflation of 1922-23 led directly to the rise of Hitler. 



Europe's great stimulus plan is little more than political theatre

The IMF has slashed its forecast for 2020 yet again to -12.2pc for France, and -12.5pc for Italy and Spain

Gita Gopinath, the IMF’s Indian chief economist, drew up these figures after the outlines of the EU’s Next Generation Recovery Plan were already known, so clearly she does not believe the "game-changer" rhetoric.

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard 8 July 2020



Expend and pretend - Banks need to prepare now for Covid-19 losses later

Many European banks adopted an “extend and pretend” approach, and even before coronavirus were still suffering depressed valuations.

FT 8 July 2020



Give them more time, hoping things improve and they can repay later.
Banks call it a wise strategy. Skeptics call it "extend and pretend."


What if water shortages destabilise China?

The painfully unequal distribution of water in China reawakens intra-regional resentments not seen in decades. 

An imagined scenario from 2050

The Economist 4 July 2020


2020-07-07

Italy’s 10-year bond yields are now higher than Greece’s — not exactly a sign of confidence from investors.

The European Union’s political leaders will meet next week to negotiate the details of their joint fiscal response to the Covid-19 crisis.

The Netherlands has emerged as the main villain opposing the plan

Bloomberg 7 July 2020

Robert J. Shiller explains the pandemic stock market and why it’s decoupled from the economy

Possible explanations based on crowd psychology, the virality of ideas, and the dynamics of narrative epidemics.

After all, stock-market movements are driven largely by investors’ assessments of other investors’ evolving reaction to the news, rather than the news itself.

MarketWatch July 7, 2020 


Chart Wall Street 2015-2020

They’re reverting to their only playbook -- the past. It’s a technique that showed its age in March, when the fastest plunge ever turned into the quickest 50-day advance in nine decades, a rally those with a historical bent said was doomed.

Now, with momentum back, history supposedly shows the gains are here to stay.

Bloomberg 7 July 2020


Larry Kudlow, Krugman about

Larry Kudlow is, of course, the chairman of the National Economic Council, in effect Trump’s chief economist. He’s also famous among those who follow such things for his remarkable track record of being wrong about everything, from his dismissal of those warning about a housing bubble as “bubbleheads” to his declaration a few months ago that the coronavirus was completely contained and wouldn’t inflict any economic damage.
Now, all of us get things wrong sometimes. But Kudlow is in a class of his own; as New York magazine’s Jonathan Chait memorably put it, he “has elevated flamboyant wrongness to a kind of performance art.” 
And he’s also notable because his solution to all problems is the same: cut taxes on rich people and corporations.
Paul Krugman NYT 7 July 2020

Olivier Blanchard, former chief economist at the IMF and doyen of the global Keynesians.





“Stocks are [behaving] very much like that rebound in 1929

where there is absolute conviction that the virus will be under control and that massive monetary and fiscal stimuli will reinvigorate the economy,” he said, adding that the market could drop as much as 40% over the next year.

 A. Gary Shilling again delivering a gloomy take on what’s next in a recent CNBC interview.

MarketWatch 6 July 2020

- I am convinced that the housing bubble is gigantic and will burst before long with massive implications here and abroad. In fact, it's the key to the global economic outlook.



Caveat. Ära vare Gud i höjden. Detta har jag gjort i slöjden.


When things cannot go on forever, they stop. And so it is with China’s support of the US dollar.

Foreigners sold more than $500bn of US government bonds during the second quarter, and perhaps one-third of that was unloaded by Chinese entities. The trend is worth watching.

Ever since 2001, when China was allowed unfettered entry into the World Trade Organization, the country has played a huge behind-the-scenes role in pushing up the value of the US currency and suppressing US bond yields.



“Stein’s law” If something cannot go on forever, it will stop.



Departing eurogroup chief warns against post-pandemic rush to reinstate fiscal limits

Brussels took the unprecedented move to suspend the application of its “stability and growth pact” at the onset of the crisis, a move designed to avoid punishing countries for their stimulus efforts. 

But the slow return to normality has revived calls for a fundamental rethink of the rules which have been a source of constant tension between Brussels and eurozone capitals in recent years.

FT 7 July  2020


A big step towards fiscal federalism in Europe
When the euro was born everyone knew that sooner or later a crisis would occur.
It was also clear that the stability and growth pact was – as I have said before – “stupid”


2020-07-06

Den sköraste tråden: ett fallfärdigt Italien

Nicholas Nassim Taleb, The Black Swan Mauldin

We knew pandemics happen and can have big consequences. No one knew in 2019 one was coming in 2020. It was what my friend Nassim Taleb called a “Black Swan” in his 2007 book with that title.

(That book, along with Antifragile, are his two best. You only need to read the first half of Antifragile to get the point, making it a short but very important read.)

Let's look at 1987, 1998, and 2000 [and now 2008]. Each period had rather solid US economies preceding them. All had rather significant disruptions. And each one saw the Fed open the liquidity flood gates.

John Mauldin 3 July 2020

Taleb Black Swan på min site


Households across the world have been saving up since the coronavirus

Tim Congdon, an economist who tracks money supply figures, said the growth in deposits in the US and around the world had been “unprecedented in modern peacetime history”. 

He warned that at some point, such moves would lead to “a significant uptick in inflation”

FT 5 July 2020




In a democracy, people are not just consumers, workers, business owners, savers or investors. We are citizens.

In today’s world, citizenship needs to have three aspects: 
loyalty to democratic political and legal institutions and the values of open debate and mutual tolerance that underpin them; 
concern for the ability of all fellow citizens to lead a fulfilled life; and the wish to create an economy that allows the citizens and their institutions to flourish.

Martin Wolf FT 6 July 2020

medborgare.englund@gmail.com

Medborgare mot EMU


2020-07-05

How to make capitalism work for all

In many rich countries, decades of economic polarisation have left people like my neighbour not just underpaid, but having to accept short-term contracts, erratic shift patterns and unpredictable earnings. 

This “precariat” faces debilitating insecurity, which lockdown has made worse.

 As the gilets jaunes protests in France illustrated, many people see the economy as a system to which they do not belong, rigged to benefit others.

Donald Trump, the architects of Brexit and populist movements across Europe all advanced by appealing to groups that felt forgotten by elites and saw the economic system as rigged against them. 

They have, in effect, been promising to restore the post-1945 era and bring about the sort of moral reordering we glimpsed in the lockdown.

Martin Sandbu FT 3 July 2020


2020-07-04

Explosiv utveckling av pandemin i ett av tre scenarier från MSB

Våren 2021 är smittspridningen i Sverige låg, men med kraftiga regionala utbrott. Allmänheten är uppgiven och pandemin tränger undan långsiktiga politiska frågor.

Den ekonomiska krisen fördjupas med allt fler varsel samtidigt som permitterade inte kan återgå till arbetet. Ojämlikheten i samhället ökar vilket leder till missnöje och polarisering. 

Högt skuldsatta hushåll tvingas sälja sina bostäder och antalet vräkningar ökar liksom konkurserna. Svensk ekonomi är i ett läge som påminner om 90-talskrisen.

DN 3 juli 2020

Göran Persson om 90-talet: Vi gjorde mycket fel, naturligtvis. Kanske borde vi ha sparat lite mindre



Kronkursförsvaret och 90-talskrisen



war is peace freedom is slavery ignorance is strength

The 101st Airborne Division

conducts an air assault with UH-60 Black Hawk helicopters

Youtube




Därför är jag inte centerpartist eller sverigedemokrat


Konservatism utan liberalism blir lätt ett vattentrampande i en stark ström. Tidens gång drar oss framåt och förändring är oundviklig, oavsett hur mycket vi kämpar emot. 

Liberalism utan konservatism blir lätt drömmande utopisk. 
Ett försök att applicera lösningar utifrån princip snarare än rådande verklighet.









2020-07-02

The lessons of the 1930s and 1980s for Latin America

The second slump was in the 1980s, when a string of countries defaulted on their foreign debts after international interest rates soared. (När Volcker höjde räntan för att  besegra inflationen.)

Dictatorships, which had prevailed in the region, yielded to elected democratic governments in eight countries between 1982 and 1989.

The Economist 27 July 2020

Volcker startade sedelpressarna, inte Greenspan.



Det är lätt att vara efterklok, säger en del. Ofta de som har till uppgift att vara förkloka.

That´s what they are paid for.

Rolf Englund 2 juli 2020 

2020-07-01

Niall Ferguson - en av mina Gurus

Detta är början på en ny serie om mina nuvarande Gurus.

Jag börjar med Niall Ferguson som är både bred och djup.

En av hans senaste artiklar har rubriken 

2020 Is Not 1968. It May Be Worse.

Några av hans tidigare artiklar finns på min website här.

Hans egen hemsida finns här

Inlägg i denna serie kommer att tilldelas etiketten Gurus.

2020-06-30

‘Too big to fail’ banking reforms hailed by Financial Stability Board


The FSB is working on a separate review of the more lightly regulated non-bank, or shadow-banking, sector.

FT 28 June 2020

The Basel-based FSB


‘Large demand gap’ looms for US government bonds

A gulf is growing between the amount of US government debt to be issued by the Treasury department this year and what the Federal Reserve is planning to buy.

Inflation expectations have fallen dramatically in the months that followed, with one market measure derived from inflation-protected US government securities — the 10-year break-even rate — remaining at just over 1 per cent.

FT 29 June 2020


Towering debts are a big threat, even if servicing costs are low

One innocent explanation for the extraordinary bounce back in global equity markets in the second quarter is that investors have concluded that the worst of the pandemic is over and that recovery is within reach.

A less innocent — but all too plausible — alternative reading is that investors now believe central banks will exercise complete control over asset prices for the foreseeable future.

could ensure a lasting decoupling of equity prices from ailing economies.

In a recent paper for the Brookings Institution, Sage Belz and David Wessel

A pick-up in inflation is a far more probable outcome than markets currently allow. 

It is, moreover, part of the solution to countries’ excessive debt burdens.



2020-06-29

Germany is doomed to lead Europe

The EU’s biggest member is in charge, whether Germans like it or not.

The EU is supposed to be a convergence machine, spreading prosperity rather than embedding differences between rich and poor countries. It has not worked that way. 

When the euro was introduced at the start of the millennium, Italian GDP per capita was 20% below Germany’s. Now the gap is nearly 40%—a figure that will only widen during the crisis.

The Economist 27 June 2020


2020-06-28

The next catastrophe

Preparedness is one of things that governments are for

If a coronal mass ejection (cme) were to hit, all sorts of satellite systems needed for navigation, communications and warnings of missile attacks would be at risk. 

Large parts of the planet could face months or even years without reliable grid electricity

The Economist 25 June 2020


Stiglitz, Roubini and the Post-Pandemic Future of Capitalism

The precariat is the contemporary version of Karl Marx’s proletariat

 A vast underclass of increasingly indebted, socially immobile Americans – African-Americans, Latinos, and, increasingly, whites – is revolting against a system that has failed it.

The precariat is the contemporary version of Karl Marx’s proletariat: a new class of alienated, insecure workers who are ripe for radicalization and mobilization against the plutocracy (or what Marx called the bourgeoisie). 

This class is growing once again, now that highly leveraged corporations are responding to the COVID-19 crisis as they did after 2008: taking bailouts and hitting their earnings targets by slashing labor costs.

Nouriel Roubini ProjectSyndicate 24 June 2020


Nouriel Roubini, Professor of Economics at New York University's Stern School of Business and Chairman of Roubini Macro Associates, was Senior Economist for International Affairs in the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers during the Clinton Administration. He has worked for the International Monetary Fund, the US Federal Reserve, and the World Bank. 

His website is NourielRoubini.com.https://nourielroubini.com/

----


Martin Wolf 2008: One might not expect much from economists, but one would surely expect them to warn us of a crisis on this scale.

I am not seeking to deny that a few people saw important pieces of the emerging puzzle and some saw more than a few pieces.

In my gallery of heroes are Avinash Persaud, who told us early and often that the risk-management models on which regulators foolishly relied were absurd individually and lethal collectively

(Long list of names.....and Nouriel Roubini, of course, who was Dr Doom before almost anybody else.)

The list is not exhaustive and I apologise to all those offended by my omissions.Alternatively, we could have spent more time studying the work of Hyman Minsky.

Speech given by Martin Wolf, chief economics commentator, at the FT’s annual economists’ drinks party in London


Financial Times, 27/11 2008

Hyman Minsky




2020-06-27

The Domino Theory

The domino theory — the idea that setbacks can accumulate quickly and catastrophically — is one of the most controversial ideas in U.S. foreign policy. It guided a half-century of statecraft during the Cold War, only to be rejected by many historians of that conflict

The domino theory became infamous thanks to the Vietnam War, which the U.S. fought in part to prevent the rest of Southeast Asia from falling. President Dwight D. Eisenhower coined the phrase in 1954, in explaining why losing Indochina would be so disastrous

A principal reason President Harry Truman provided aid to Greece and Turkey in 1947 was fear that other parts of the Middle East and Europe would find it impossible to resist if these countries succumbed to Soviet pressure or communist subversion.

The U.S. war in Vietnam may have bought time for other parts of Southeast Asia, but the price, in human and strategic damage, was astronomical for America itself. 

Hal Brands is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist, the Henry Kissinger Distinguished Professor at Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies, and a scholar at the American Enterprise Institute. Most recently, he is the co-author of "The Lessons of Tragedy: Statecraft and World Order."


https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-06-27/korean-war-anniversary-china-and-return-of-the-domino-theory



2020-06-26

Nu är det snart 45 år sedan LO-ekonomen Rudolf Meidner lade fram sitt förslag om löntagarfonder

Det har nästan lämnat debatten. 

Synd – vi bör komma ihåg vad facket försökte göra, och vad som hänt om facket lyckats.

Nils-Eric Sandberg Kristianstadsbladet 21 juni 2020

Ur innehållsförteckningen om boken av Lars Tobisson 

Löntagarfonder – så nära men ändå inte


Läs om hans bok här



FT Summer books of 2020: History

The Human Factor: Gorbachev, Reagan, and Thatcher and the End of the Cold War

https://www.ft.com/content/15de1810-b146-11ea-a4b6-31f1eedf762e

https://www.ft.com/summerbooks2020


2020-06-25

Mervyn King inflation fiscal union

 2016, King published The End of Alchemy – a searing critique of the global banking system – which argued that “another economic and financial crisis would be devastating to the legitimacy of a democratic market system”.

“I think it is a terrible mistake the economics profession has engendered, to believe it doesn’t really matter why the economy is growing slowly; you just need to … lower rates and print more money.”

“That will lead us back to the world from which we had happily escaped in the early 1990s, after two decades of high and volatile inflation, and a very painful recession … that bad old world of high inflation.”

Having consistently warned of the “technical incoherence of monetary union”, King now sees the eurozone as “the single biggest problem we face in rebalancing the world economy”.

He says that “the fundamental mistake … was to pretend monetary union … would ensure each country was responsible for its own debts – something they’ve found it impossible to stick with”. As a result, eurozone governments have now “entered into a gradual and slow move towards fiscal union, for which there is absolutely no legitimate democratic support across Europe”.

Mervyn King Telegraph 25 June 2020

Lord Mervyn King, former governor of the Bank of England The End of Alchemy.


2020-06-24

Martin Wolf Summer books of 2020: Economics

 FT 23 June 2020


The Deficit Myth:
Modern Monetary Theory and How to Build a Better Economy by Stephanie Kelton

The government, proponents argue, can print as much money as it wants to fund whatever it wishes. The only constraint is excess demand and so inflation.

It is right, because there is no simple budget constraint.

It is wrong, because it will prove impossible to manage an economy sensibly once politicians believe there is no budget constraint.



2020-06-23

2020-06-21

U.S. banks are ‘swimming in money’ as deposits increase by $2 trillion

The wall of money flowing into banks has no precedent in history: in April alone, deposits grew by $865 billion, more than the previous record for an entire year.

CNBC 21 June 2020


‘La la land?’ The stock market

“Speculation is rampant and being championed by a bold new breed of millennial day traders,” he said.

“The mania is based on a widespread hope in Fed money printing. The catalysts for reckoning are numerous as a major cyclical economic downturn has only just begun.”

MarketWatch 20 June 2020


2020-06-20

We will dress up again

The function of the suit and tie in 2020 is almost purely as a professional uniform: the domain of politicians, lawyers and middle management (upper management are required to drop the tie, to communicate their openness and sincerity).

FT 18 June 2020


2020-06-19

A bloodbath awaits commercial property investors

Those who have seen more than one cycle know many of them will not survive.

Then they will have to face the problem that while the AAA holders might have survived, the more speculative tranche holders will be wiped out.

FT 19 June 2020


2020-06-18

Bundesbank boss moves to defuse row between ECB and German court

Stock-market legend who called 3 financial bubbles says this one is the ‘Real McCoy,’

Grantham is worth paying attention to due to his prescient calls over the years. He said that stocks were overvalued in 2000 and again in 2007, anticipating those market downturns

My confidence is rising quite rapidly that this is, in fact, becoming the fourth, real McCoy, bubble of my investment career.

The great bubbles can go on a long time and inflict a lot of pain but at least I think we know now that we’re in one.

MarketWatch 18 June 2020

We found 28 bubbles. Every one of the 28 went back to trend, no exceptions, no new eras, not a single one that we can find in history."

Jeremy Grantham 30/4 2007


"The real McCoy" is an idiom and metaphor used in much of the English-speaking world to mean "the real thing"

Wikipedia

Jeremy Grantham

Wikipedia





2020-06-17

Central banks repeatedly set the stage for the next boom and bust cycle, fuelled by growing debt

The retreat from globalisation and a switch from just-in-time supply chain management to just-in-case inventories will not be good for corporate profits.

The current debt overhang will never be repaid in full. With central banks directly monetising government deficits, much of the debt will ultimately be inflated away — which is something that fixed-income markets resolutely refuse to believe. 

John Plender FT MAY 8 2020




2020-06-16

Gunnar Wall om Lisbeth, Holmér, Ebbe och Lidbom


Intervju: Är du säker på att inte Engström hade alibi, Krister Petersson?

Vi vet ganska precis var och när mordet ägde rum: i Dekorimahörnan klockan 23:21:30 fredagen den 28 februari 1986.

Och frågan som måste ställas lyder så här: är det sannolikt att Stig Engström över huvud taget kunde befinna sig där vid just den tidpunkten?

Nej, men han stämplade ju ut innan han passerade receptionen. Och både han och väktaren i receptionen sa att de hade ett samtal. Då ska han alltså hinna med att stämpla ut, han ska gå till receptionen, han ska gå ut och sedan ska han hinna utföra mordet. Om han stämplade ut mellan 23.20.00 och 23.20.59 kan jag inte se att han hade någon tid att utföra mordet.

https://gunnarwall.wordpress.com/2020/06/12/ar-du-saker-pa-att-inte-engstrom-hade-alibi-krister-petersson/

Det märkliga är att Lisbeth – enligt vad som är officiellt känt – inte förhördes igen förrän den 25 mars då Hans Holmér hade ett samtal med henne hemma hos Ebbe Carlsson på Söder.

Jag har i mitt skrivande gjort klart att jag menar att just Holmér, Ebbe och Lidbom var centrala figurer i ett sådant mörkläggningsarbete

Lars Borgnäs bok inleds med ett förord av författaren Lena Andersson som förklarar att hon ansluter sig till Borgnäs uppfattningar.

https://gunnarwall.wordpress.com/2020/04/06/har-lars-borgnas-ratt-nar-han-omtolkar-forloppet-pa-sveavagen/


 Anders Isaksson har skrivit standardverket om folkhemmet och Per Albin Hansson i fyra delar och kartlagt samtidens elit i "Den politiska adeln". Nu kommer hans nya bok: "Ebbe - Mannen som blev en affär" (Bonnier fakta).


- Du kom sanningen ganska nära. Den nu framlidne Carl Lidbom fällde yttrandet under ett av våra samtal. Ämnet var boken "Den godhjärtade buffeln"

https://www.internetional.se/ebbecarlsson.htm




2020-06-15

The stock rally since March

 is built on the premise that the lockdown is one-and-done, and that a V-shaped recovery in GDP is more or less assured.

US Treasury will be issuing $100bn of monthly debt over and above Fed purchases from now on, and appetite for this flood of bonds from banks, pension funds, and foreign investors is “lukewarm” .

The Fed and the ECB will not dare until they have crystal clear justification. It will take a very painful sell-off before we reach that threshold. 

As we now know from an astonishing speech this week by the Bank of England’s Sir Jon Cunliffe, is that the market ructions in late March came close to bringing down the global financial system (yet again). 

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard Telegraph 12 June 2020


The EU crosses the Rubicon as it inches toward fiscal union

All along, there has been a dichotomy between those who saw the EU as being on a journey towards a United States of Europe and those who saw it as destined to remain a federation of sovereign states.

It was always envisaged by its proponents that monetary union would be a key step along the road to full union, including the pooling of past debts, the common issue of new debt, a shared tax base and, eventually, political union. 

Indeed, this was also recognised by its opponents, including in this country, which is precisely why there was so much hostility here towards joining the euro.

Mind you, after Julius Caesar crossed the Rubicon in 49BC, things didn’t exactly turn out too well.

Rogerl Bootle Telegraph 14 June 2020

Crossing the Rubicon
Wikipedia

Morgan Stanley Economists Double Down on V-Shape Global Recovery

The global economy is in a new expansion cycle and output will return to pre-coronavirus crisis levels by the fourth quarter, according to Morgan Stanley economists.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-15/morgan-stanley-economists-double-down-on-v-shape-global-recovery

Den segerrusiga mobb som nu sveper fram genom västvärlden


Maos fjärde fru Jiang Qing, ledare för De Fyras Gäng


När dagens ikonoklaster besöker det förflutna gör de det med revolutionärens blick: allt som inte passar in i den framtid som ska byggas måste rensas ut. 

Maoisterna tänkte likadant under den kinesiska kulturrevolutionen

Ivar Arpi SvD 14 juni 2020


Ikonoklasm

Under 1500-talets reformation ägde en liknande bildstrid rum, då reformerta bildstormare förstörde konstverk i bland annat tyska, nederländska och engelska kyrkor. Lutherdomen var mer tolerant, varför bilderna behölls i kyrkorna i de nordiska länderna.

Talibanstyret i Afghanistan införde ett totalförbud mot avbildning av människor, något som i mars 2001 resulterade i förstörelsen av de två gigantiska, antika buddhastatyerna i Bamiyan.

Wikipedia


Kulturrevolutionen

Kampanjen inleddes 1966 och hade sin mest intensiva fas till år 1969, men upphörde slutgiltigt först med Maos död år 1976. Det officiella syftet var att förnya och sprida revolutionen till alla delar av det kinesiska samhället. Kampanjen genomdrevs med stöd av de unga idealistiska rödgardisterna och en grupp trogna i partiledningen.

Enligt den idag både i och utanför Kina vanliga historieskrivningen avslutades kulturrevolutionen definitivt först med Maos död och gripandet av de fyras gäng år 1976. 

https://sv.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kulturrevolutionen

Maos svaga hälsa och tilltagande senilitet ledde dock till ett maktvakuum, vilket fylldes av Maos fjärde fru Jiang Qing samt en mycket radikal politisk gruppering runt henne. 

De fattade radikala beslut, vilket bland annat innebar förstörandet av flertusenåriga kulturskatter, historiska monument, brännande av stora mängder litterära verk, fördömande, förföljelse, fängslande och avrättande av författare, konstnärer, akademiker och intellektuella.

Skolor, universitet och sjukhus stängdes för att rensa ut "gammalt tänkande"

Wikipedia



2020-06-12

Gradually, then suddenly - John Hussman

“In the face of a breathtaking disconnect between Main Street and Wall Street, largely based on overconfidence in free money, my sense is that there remains a crisis ahead that will emerge ‘gradually, then suddenly,’” he wrote, referring to Ernest Hemingway’s famous quote from “The Sun Also Rises” about going bankrupt, “gradually, then suddenly.”

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/beware-of-these-widely-held-stocks-when-the-market-crisis-gradually-then-suddenly-emerges-fund-manager-warns-2020-06-11

Jag tycker det börjar kännas som 1968 igen.

Plötsligt är gatorna fulla av demonstranter.
Statyer vräks omkull. Nu är det År Noll.

Unga idealister som utnyttjas av anarkister. Men kan det finnas så många anarkister?
Jag upprepar mitt mantra: Tidsandans kraft är stor.
Rolf Englund på Facebook 12 juni 2020


Ian Burumas Year Zero. A history of 1945

There's nothing irrational about buoyant stock prices

The resilience of stock markets in the face of economic catastrophe actually makes some sense.

Who is to say that the collective judgment of millions of investors is wrong?

Jeremy Warner 6 June 2020

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/06/05/nothing-irrational-buoyant-stock-prices/

Markets are celebrating $9 trillion of stimulus across the world, but they have either forgotten why authorities are having to take wartime counter measures, or they are ignoring that a V-shaped economic recovery is not in fact happening anywhere 


https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/06/09/markets-pocketing-global-recovery-does-not-yet-exist/



The Great Crash came in two phases


https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/11/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html

With 3% of America’s population, New York has suffered 19% of deaths

One in four French deaths was in Paris and its region.

https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/06/13/great-cities-after-the-pandemic


2020-06-09

A Crash in the Dollar Is Coming

The era of the U.S. dollar’s “exorbitant privilege” as the world’s primary reserve currency is coming to an end. Then French Finance Minister Valery Giscard d’Estaing coined that phrase in the 1960s largely out of frustration, bemoaning a U.S. that drew freely on the rest of the world to support its over-extended standard of living. For almost 60 years, the world complained but did nothing about it. 

Those days are over.

Already stressed by the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. living standards are about to be squeezed as never before. 

Stephen Roach Bloomberg June 8, 2020

2020-06-08

ECB is following the Weimar Reichsbank into an inflation trap

The Institute of International Monetary Research says “broad” M3 money has been growing at a 19pc rate over the last three months (annualised) and will rise further

Prof Mayer is author of Europe’s Unfinished Currency and a fellow at the Centre for Financial Studies in Frankfurt.

While Weimar inflation stemmed from the upheavals of the First World War, Germany did succeed in stabilising the mark and controlling prices for a while. The rot set in when the Reichsbank stepped up money creation to cover falling tax revenues.

Inflation spiralled higher in early 1923 after French troops occupied the Ruhr to extract war reparations. Germans stayed at home under a policy of passive resistance, a form of lockdown. Printed money covered the shortfall.

Oxford professor Richard Werner said the euro has become a doomsday machine. “In the end it destabilises every country in one way or another. It will be Germany’s turn next,” he said.

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard Telegraph 7 June 2020 







2020-06-05

Dow rallies more than 700 points after surge in U.S. jobs

U.S. employers added a shocking 2.5 million jobs last month — the largest gain on record. 

Economists polled by Dow Jones expected a drop of more than 8 million jobs

CNBC 5 June 2020

Nice chart



US Treasury sell-off becomes crowded trade

The difference in yields between 5-year and 30-year Treasuries rose to 122 basis points, the most since December 2016.

FT 4 June 2020

US government debt is a safe haven the way Pearl Harbor was a safe haven in 1941.

Niall Ferguson, FT February 10 2010




2020-06-04

NK kämpar för att överleva

Simon Kuper är en lysande skribent hos Financial Times

Hans senaste opus handlar om så skilda ting som Lenin, Alexander Kerensky, Viktor Orban, Modern Monetary Theory och Joe Biden.

- In March 1917, Vladimir Lenin was living in Zurich, in smelly rooms rented from a shoemaker, spending his days in the library. When a neighbour told him there had been a revolution in Russia, he could hardly believe it.

- In October the Bolsheviks seized the Winter Palace. Nothing about their triumph was historically inevitable. Alexander Kerensky, head of the provisional liberal government, who would die almost forgotten in New York in 1970, might have prevailed.

- Hungary’s Viktor Orban is currently ruling by decree, though the government now says those powers will lapse on June 20.

- Most governments still deny that they can print money with impunity, as advocated by modern monetary theory, but what matters is that they are doing it.

- Nobody would call Biden an ideas person steeped in libraries, but his campaign is listening to people who are

Simon Kuper FT 4 June 2020