Englund

  Sol och vind; kol och olja Sunt förnuft och en stunds eftertanke leder till slutsatsen att det knappast är möjligt att på mycket kort tid ställa om det komplexa fossilbaserade ekonomiska och teknologiska system som vuxit fram de senaste 150 åren  – ett system som använder motsvarande 10 miljarder ton kol per år och ur detta utvinner 17 terawatt energi varje timme  Magnus Henrekson Axess Samhälle 2024 9 https://www.axess.se/artiklar/varlden-gar-inte-under/

  Världen går mot tre graders uppvärmning Målet i Parisavtalet är att temperaturökningen inte ska vara mer än 1,5 grader. SvT 24 oktober 2024 https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/morka-fn-rapporten-visar-varlden-gar-mot-tre-graders-uppvarmning The UN Emissions Gap report indicates that if only “current policies” are implemented the world could warm by up to 3.1C. Today's report says that if countries put into action the promises they have already made in their carbon cutting plans then temperatures will rise by 2.6C to 2.8C. And if every country puts these plans into action and follows through on their existing net zero pledges, the Emissions Gap report says the rise could be contained to 1.9C. Let's be clear - even a rise of 1.9C would be disastrous. BBC 24 October 2024 https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn0d24w28qno Det kan kännas hopplöst att  följa utsläppen, som fortsätter att öka år efter år. – Men å andra sidan så tycker jag att vi ser framsteg. De är bara så långsamma. – ...

So much information on the newly launched Copernicus Climate Change Service atlas that my laptop started to overheat As well as all the past data, it predicts where the climate is going and how soon we will breach the 1.5C “limit”, and then 2C.  You can call up the region where you live, so it is specific to what is happening to you and your family – and all the more disturbing for that. A separate part called Climate Pulse intended particularly for journalists is easier to operate. Looking at the mass of information, there is only one conclusion: we are running out of time Guardian 29 March 2024 https://www.theguardian.com/news/2024/mar/29/copernicus-online-portal-offers-terrifying-view-climate-emergency

 Do you worry about what sort of world we are bequeathing to our children and grandchildren?  In the words of science writer and author of “The Uninhabitable Earth” David Wallace-Wells, “No matter how well informed you are, you are surely not alarmed enough.” I would put it even more strongly. If the fracturing of our once stable climate doesn’t terrify you, then you don’t fully understand it. The reality is that, as far as we know, and in the natural course of events, our world has never — in its entire history — heated up as rapidly as it is doing now. Nor have greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere ever seen such a precipitous hike. Think about that for a moment. We’re experiencing, in our lifetimes, a heating episode that is probably unique in the last 4.6 billion years. The truth is that people can take being scared if they know there is still hope and that they can do something to make things better, or at least stop things getting worse. Bill McGuire is professor emeri...

  Den obeboeliga planeten av David Wallace-Wells https://www.bokus.com/bok/9789100180959/den-obeboeliga-planeten/ The Uninhabitable Earth https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Uninhabitable_Earth_(book) Some readers will find Mr Wallace-Wells’s outline of possible futures alarmist. He is indeed alarmed. You should be, too. The Economist 21 February 2019 https://www.economist.com/books-and-arts/2019/02/21/a-terrifying-look-at-the-consequences-of-climate-change Climate Wars: What People Will be Killed for in the 21st Century https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/13175184-climate-wars https://www.amazon.com/Climate-Wars-People-Killed-Century/dp/0745651453 Det är kört. Så kan man helt kort sammanfatta Jonathan Jeppssons bok  ”Åtta steg mot avgrunden”. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2020/08/det-ar-kort-sa-kan-man-helt-kort.html We will eventually get to net-zero emissions. Solar and wind energy, as well as storage batteries, keep getting cheaper.  We just won’t get there in time ...

Not Aquarius. A new-old period of realism has returned The fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 and the subsequent collapse of the Soviet Union ended the Cold War and prompted a false diagnosis of the “end of history.” Al-Qaeda’s attacks against the US on Sep. 11, 2001, seemed instead to debut a “clash of civilizations.”  In this brave new-old world, military power will once again assert its primacy in international affairs, with economic, political and “soft” power lining up as its attendants. This will raise the profile of the martial — such as the US — and lower that of the meek, including the mercantile and post-heroic European Union. This is why EU members like Sweden and Finland will join NATO in 2023. The main difference between this era of Realpolitik and previous ones — from Thucydides’ to Metternich’s and Bismarck’s — is instead the existence of a new and apocalyptic externality. This is anthropogenic climate change, with all its side effects — from zoonotic pandemics to flood...

 It would’ve been better to do more, of course, since the world is still on course for devastating levels of warming. The ethics of the “loss and damage” question were never in dispute. Rich countries have already emitted almost all the carbon the atmosphere can stand if climate change is to be arrested.  A group of countries led by the US and Japan announced a $20 billion financing package to support Indonesia’s plan to shift from coal to renewables. The agreement would not have happened without the leadership of Indonesia and the G-7 nations, along with Mark Carney and Mary Schapiro of the Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero, a group Carney and I co-chair that includes many of the world’s largest financial firms and asset managers.  Michael R. Bloomberg Bloomberg 25 november 2022 Michael R. Bloomberg is the founder and majority owner of Bloomberg LP, the parent company of Bloomberg News https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-11-25/michael-bloomberg-on-cop27...

 The star of Glasgow was South Africa. The country agreed to shut most of its 15 coal plants by 2030, even though coal provides 85pc of its power and employs 80,000 people.  That deal was made possible by an $8.5bn pilot project of cheap loans from the US, UK, and the EU known as the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP). It has had teething problems but remains the global template.  In Sharm El-Sheikh the star was Indonesia, the second of the JETP series, this time drawing the biggest financial climate package ever put together. The country agreed to halt 13 gigawatts of planned coal plants, phase out unabated coal plants, and start reducing power emissions by 2030, seven years early and at a much lower level than expected.  In recompense, the US and Japan will lead the West in coming up with $20bn of funding, half from state agencies, which in turn unlocks the other half from HSBC, Bank of America, et al, under the Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero. Ambro...

 Nu måste vi göra om samhället i grunden på 20-30 år.  Sett på nätet, förmodligen Bloomberg.

There are plenty of reasons to be hopeful about the energy transition -- more drivers are switching to electric cars, the deployment of renewable sources of power continues to grow, and the US may have finally gotten serious about climate action with the Inflation Reduction Act. But while the general direction of travel may be correct, the pace needs to pick up dramatically. The world is getting uncomfortably close to running out of time to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees C above pre-industrial levels In fact, the latest annual Global Carbon Budget report concludes there is a 50% chance this threshold will be breached within the next nine years if the current rate of emissions persists. Here are five charts from BloombergNEF on some of the latest headwinds for the race to net zero. Bloomberg 15 november 2022 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-15/the-world-s-failure-to-deliver-on-climate-action-in-five-charts There is no way Earth can now avoid a temperature rise of mor...

 Om inte världens ledare kommer med radikalt förnyade klimatlöften så går vi mot tre graders uppvärmning innan seklets slut. En sådan hetta kommer på många platser att leda till systemkollaps av el-och vattenförsörjning. Enda ljusglimten i lägesrapporten från FN är att världens länder kommer att öka sina utsläpp med 10,6 procent till 2030, i stället för 13,7 procent enligt förra årets prognos. Men ländernas klimatlöften är ljusår ifrån IPCC:s beräkning att utsläppen måste minska med 45 procent till 2030 för att hålla uppvärmningen kring 1,5 grad. SvT 26 oktober 2020 https://www.svt.se/nyheter/vi-kor-mot-ovissheten Climate Tipping Points May Be Triggered Bloomberg 8 september 2022 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2022/09/climate-tipping-points-may-be-triggered.html We will eventually get to net-zero emissions. Solar and wind energy, as well as storage batteries, keep getting cheaper.  We just won’t get there in time to prevent ruinous climate change. Simon Kuper FT 12 November...

A United Nations-backed panel of climate scientists warned in a new report released Monday that the world may be on track to warm by more than 3°C -  twice the Paris Agreement target - in a change that would painfully remake societies and life on the planet.  Bloomberg 4 April 2022 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-04/planet-s-breakneck-warming-likely-to-pass-1-5-c-un-scientists-warn https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-3/ IPCC: World must halve emissions by 2030 | Environment | All topics from climate change to conservation | DW | 04.04.2022 I rapporten beskrivs prissättning av koldioxid som ett effektivt verktyg. S amtidigt omfattas endast 4 procent av världens utsläpp av ett koldioxidpris på tillräckligt hög nivå. Den svenska prissättningen ligger högre än den nivå som enligt rapporten är tillräckligt hög. Att Sverige inte behöver höja priset på koldioxid är ett viktigt konstaterande i klimatdiskussionen  DI ledare 5 april 2022...

  Tack till Anders Fischer och Vlade Naumovski

The technologists on the front line solving the problem, and the corporations racing ahead with net zero faster than the political class can keep up, or the environmental old guard seems able to believe. It was a festival of optimism. In one room Rolls-Royce engineers explained how they can already run the world’s existing fleet of passenger jets on 50pc clean fuel, with 100pc clean energy engines being tested successfully, and with the prospect that this fuel will be generated by small modular reactors. In another room, CWP Global explained how it is developing super-sized renewable hubs in Patagonia, or the Sahara, or the Australian outback, able to produce breathtakingly cheap electricity from wind and solar.  Few understand how quickly Big Money has gone from being the careless enabler of fossil pollution and land abuse to becoming instead the arch-enforcer of the green order, pulling forward change Ambrose Evans-Pritchard 16 November 2021 https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2...

global production of coal, oil and gas must start declining immediately and steeply. Nothing that came out of Glasgow suggests this will happen.  UN climate process does not work. This is not because the science discussed at the COP meetings is faulty. The problem is political.  Domestically, politicians have good reason to fear that the cost of decarbonisation will be electoral defeat or social unrest.  The repeated failures of the UN process have led many to denounce the current generation of world leaders as deficient or immoral. But different leaders, placed under the same pressures, would probably come up with similar results. Gideon Rachman FT 15 November 2021 https://www.ft.com/content/ae6a8e8f-94db-4f06-a377-343a84e9be4d  

Global warming has already seen temperatures rise by 1.1C since pre-industrial times, as a result of the release of about 2,400 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide since 1850 from human activity. FT 12 November 2021 https://www.ft.com/content/3e287ff2-0f74-43f4-85ee-bf48ee01c934 COP-presidenten i tårar – här klubbas historiska avtalet igenom https://www.svt.se/nyheter/utrikes/klimatavtalet-klart-forandringar-i-sista-minuten  Men oavsett allt kommer isarna fortsätta att smälta och haven kommer fortsätta att stiga. Erika Bjerström SvT  13  November 2021 https://www.svt.se/nyheter/utrikes/analys-en-historisk-enighet-om-att-fasa-ut-fossila-branslen   6 takeaways from the U.N. climate conference https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/13/climate/cop26-climate-summit-takeaways.html COP26 has achieved more than expected but less than hoped More ambitious climate plans are vital at the next conference a year from now THE EDITORIAL BOARD FT 14 November 2021 https://www.ft.com/content/fdbf57...

 This should not be surprising: while a growing number of countries have set net-zero targets, for example, very few have credible plans to meet them.  And even if we did meet existing targets, that would not be enough to achieve the 2015 Paris climate agreement’s main goal: limiting global warming to 1.5℃ above pre-industrial levels. The result is what social scientists call a collective action problem. Leaders and citizens alike conclude that the most rational short-term strategy is to pay lip service to the cause and hope others will solve the crisis.  Meanwhile, the planet burns. Mark Leonard Project Syndicate 2 November 2021 https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/cop26-will-fail-lack-of-solidarity-climate-change-by-mark-leonard-2021-11 Mark Leonard is Co-Founder and Director of the European Council on Foreign Relations and the author of The Age of Unpeace (Bantam Press, 2021).

“It’s all a matter of degrees, so to speak. That is, you know, hitting 2.5 is better than hitting 3, hitting 2 is better than hitting 2.5,” he said. “1.5 … will be very difficult, I doubt that we’ll be able to achieve that.” CNBC NOV 3 2021 https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/03/bill-gates-doubts-aim-to-limit-global-warming-to-1point5-degrees-achievable-.html

The Arctic is nearing the tipping point.   The world's leading polar scientist, Dr. Peter Wadhams, is headed to Greenland to study actual conditions there.  He expects the blue ocean event, when the summer ice melts completely, to occur much sooner than anticipated, probably in the next year or two.   The blue water will absorb more of the sun's heat, further warming our planet, and the Jet Stream, which balances weather in the northern hemisphere, will be disrupted. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1PJon1u3U5M Väderkartan är konstig (inte som den var förr) Rolf Englund blogg 12 maj 2010 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2010/05/vaderkartan-ar-konstig-inte-som-den-var.html

But the real story of this excellent and informative piece isn’t about the climate and what it will do to us. It’s about what the reaction to the climate will do to us. August 3, 2021 by Yves Smith https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2021/08/the-economist-notices-the-climate.html By Thomas Neuburger. Originally published at God’s Spies https://neuburger.substack.com/p/the-economist-notices-the-climate The Economist - What’s the worst that could happen Three degrees of global warming is quite plausible and truly disastrous Rapid emission cuts can reduce the risks but not eliminate them https://www.economist.com/briefing/2021/07/24/three-degrees-of-global-warming-is-quite-plausible-and-truly-disastrous