2 oktober. Riksbankschefen Erik Thedéen: Om Frankrike leder till en eurokris eller en fransk kris återstår att se. 1,949 people arrested on Thursday. Spansk regeringskris hotar .

With the premium investors charge to hold French securities over equivalent German bunds hitting the highest since the European debt crisis, speculation is mounting on how far turmoil would need to intensify before ECB steps in with its as-yet-unused firefighting tool.

That’s a situation the ECB wanted to avoid when it opted during an Italian bond blowout in 2022 to create the Transmission Protection Instrument, whose very existence was meant to keep financial ructions at bay.

Bloomberg 2 October  2026 at 5:23 PM GMT+2

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-02/ecb-s-nightmare-scenario-gets-closer-as-french-bond-yields-surge

Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI)

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/06/ecb-officials-see-no-cause-for-alarm.html

France’s Crisis Is Deepening as Investors Head for the Exit

A selloff in global debt has fueled a rout that’s hitting harder and faster in France than anyone expected, with nerves fraying about missed deficit targets and policy gridlock.

The country’s 10-year yield has surged more than one percentage point since June, its worst quarterly performance since the birth of the single currency, and equities are underperforming.

The risk perception on French debt is deteriorating, with the market starting to punish France and its level of debt, which is not necessarily something it has done in the past, 

according to Marie Jacot, chief executive at Edmond de Rothschild Asset Management France.

Bloomberg 2 October 2026

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-02/france-s-crisis-is-deepening-as-investors-head-for-the-exit

The move to dump French bonds and replace them with German bunds was amplified Thursday, bringing the spread between the two perilously close to the record set during the euro zone’s sovereign debt crisis in 2011.

The spark for the market’s crisis of confidence in French debt was lit in the US, for sure. But the spiral upward in OATS yields compared to bunds has now taken on a momentum of its own. 

John Authers Bloomberg 2 October 2026

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/newsletters/2026-10-02/soaring-yields-find-europe-s-weak-spot-in-france

 High school protests across France have turned violent in recent days, with top officials and far-right politicians accusing the hard-left firebrand Jean-Luc Mélenchon of fuelling the unrest.

According to the interior ministry, 1,949 people were arrested on Thursday.

Financial Times 2 October 2026

https://www.ft.com/content/38176237-e89f-410c-979c-c8c5d68d041a?syn-25a6b1a6=1

 Svenska räntor faller häftigt

”Man vill ut ur Frankrike och delvis även Storbritannien och flyttar då pengarna till Tyskland och Sverige.”

Viktor Munkhammar DI 2 October 2026

https://www.di.se/live/svenska-rantor-faller-haftigt/

Talet om en andra eurokris – denna gång med epicentrum i Paris – tilltar, och det är lätt att förstå varför.

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/09/talet-om-en-andra-eurokris-denna-gang.html

Riksbankschefen Erik Thedéen: Om Frankrike leder till en eurokris eller en fransk kris återstår att se.

DI 24 september 2026

https://www.di.se/nyheter/thedeen-finns-tre-jokrar-i-ranteleken/

Since France is too big to fail, investors expect the European Central Bank to eventually intervene in case of crisis, keeping a lid on yields. The ECB has the tools and could step in to prevent contagion to other Eurozone sovereigns. 

But it would also face stiff opposition in other capitals to bailing out a country that has repeatedly failed to get its house in order, especially if led by a president who is at loggerheads with the EU on other fronts. 

The market squeeze and France’s fiscal pain could get much worse before any rescue.

Financial Times Editorial 1 October 2026

https://www.ft.com/content/e7c1da68-aed3-471d-911f-0b6086a327ec?syn-25a6b1a6=1

The European Central Bank will always step in to mop up French debt in the end because the eurozone would disintegrate if it did not.

In strict legal terms, the ECB may activate its intervention tool (TPI) only to buy the debt of countries that pursue “sound fiscal and macroeconomic policies” and where the “trajectory of public debt is sustainable”. 

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard Telegraph 29 August 2025 

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/09/larmet-frankrike-kan-tanda-ny-eurokris.html

Är eurons förespråkare seriösa?

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/09/ar-eurons-foresprakare-seriosa.html

Spansk regeringskris hotar efter nedröstad bostadslag.

Premiärminister Pedro Sánchez hade själv oväntat deltagit i debatten som föregick omröstningen, skriver El País.

”Jag ber er att tänka på folket, de vanliga människor som behöver stödet mest. Tänk på de miljoner unga som inte har råd att skaffa egna bostäder, familjer som lever i oro för att hyrorna ökar, pensionärer som ser en framtid där de inte längre har råd att bo kvar, eller de tusentals barn som i morgon kan tvingas se sina leksaker på trottoaren för att deras föräldrar har vräkts”, sade han.

DI/TT 2 oktober 2026

https://www.di.se/live/spansk-regeringskris-hotar-efter-nedrostad-bostadslag/

Trots att räntorna tog ny fart uppåt under kvällen steg de amerikanska börserna. Elon Musk blev stor vinnare efter kraftiga lyft för både Tesla och Space X.

De amerikanska börserna handlades på högre nivåer under hela fredagen. S&P 500 stängde på plus 0,7 procent och Dow Jones steg 0,5 procent. Nasdaqs tekniktunga kompositindex nosade på nytt rekord med en uppgång på 1,2 procent.

https://www.di.se/live/musk-stor-vinnare-nar-usa-borserna-lyfte/

Stockholmsbörsen har backat de två senaste handelsdagarna, men studsade upp tydligt på fredagen.

 

Börsen stärktes efter eftermiddagens oväntat svaga amerikanska jobbsiffra, som ökar sannolikheten för att USA:s centralbank inte höjer räntan

https://www.di.se/live/borsen-tog-helg-med-uppgangar-tunga-industribolag-steg/

Personer

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/search/label/Personer

Dagen innan

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/10/1-oktober-wrlds-biggest-battery.html