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Wall Street surnar till.   https://www.di.se/live/experter-tunt-fran-fed-wall-street-surnar-till/ Volatilt Wall Street stängde på mörkrött Wall Street såg ut att avsluta på plus efter kvällens räntebesked från Fed. Men med en timmes handel kvar vände indexen tvärt nedåt.  https://www.di.se/live/volatilt-wall-street-stangde-pa-morkrott/ The Most Radical Plane Design Since the Concorde   https://www.wsj.com/business/could-the-most-radical-plane-design-since-the-concorde-take-on-boeing-abd9a6ce https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-29/iran-attacks-us-bases-and-saudi-arabia-joins-strikes-in-iraq USA:s president Donald Trump säger att USA kommer att genomföra militära angrepp mot Iran som svar på attacker mot amerikanska mål i Jordanien, rapporterar Fox News. DI 29 juli 2026, 14:28 https://www.di.se/nyheter/trump-usa-kommer-att-sla-till-mot-iran/ Kevin Warsh betonade han att inflationsmålet inte kommer att justeras. ”Låt mig upprepa. Det finns inget flexibe...

  US launches fresh strikes on Iran.  US Central Command (Centcom) said its latest strikes had hit Iranian "military command centres, maritime capabilities, missile and drone launch sites, and air defence systems". BBC 21 July 2026 https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx25wg2x26do De amerikanska börserna stänger på plussidan, efter att ha fått ytterligare fart under dagen. Flera AI-bolag slutar som dagens vinnare, samtidigt som oljepriset stiger ytterligare. Brentolja för 91,4 dollar. https://www.di.se/live/gron-stangning-pa-wall-street-RsVlN/ U.S. stock indexes are advancing, helped by a recovery in chip stocks, as investors gear up for earnings from some of America’s biggest tech companies. Wall Street Journal 21 July 2026 https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/u-s-futures-higher-as-ai-trade-bounces-back-d120b6a2 Three years into the artificial-intelligence trade, the U.S. market has delivered some of the best returns, and the most extreme concentration, in decades.  - Yet W...

Bill Dudley, US inflation and financial conditions US inflation remains elevated, with a broad range of underlying measures ranging from 2.4% to 3.3%.  Inflation has exceeded the central bank’s 2% objective for more than five years.  When this is the case, monetary policy should be restrictive. There is little evidence that US monetary policy is currently restrictive.  The federal funds rate has been at the current level or higher for almost four years and the unemployment rate has been quite stable, at a level consistent with full employment for the past 2 years.  If policy had been restrictive then we should have expected to see the unemployment rate rising and inflation falling. The notion that monetary policy is not restrictive is supported by the buoyancy of financial market conditions: high stock prices, tight credit spreads and moderate bond yields.  For example, the Fed’s financial conditions index estimated that the stance of financial conditions last m...

Trump Cancels Iran Strikes, Says Tehran Has ‘Approved’ Talks President says Tehran’s leadership and other parties are negotiating a deal to end the conflict approved ‘discussions and points’ https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/trump-threatens-new-strikes-on-iran-says-u-s-will-seize-its-oil-and-gas-markets-38996e77 Donald Trumps besked om att ställa in de planerade anfallen mot Iran möttes av glädjeskutt på de ledande indexen på Wall Street.  Vid 21.30-tiden uppgav Donald Trump vid Vita huset att USA ”just nått en fantastisk uppgörelse om kriget med Iran, och väntar på att dokumenten ska färdigställas”, skriver Bloomberg. ”Vi bör vara klara under de närmaste dagarna. Sannolikt blir det ett undertecknande, kanske i Europa”, https://www.di.se/live/breda-uppgangar-efter-trumps-utspel-oracle-mot-strommen/ Presidenten skriver att USA ska slå till hårt mot Iran under natten och att man ”vid någon tidpunkt” ska ta över ön Kharg, som har beskrivits som en viktig del av Irans oljeexport. h...

I have often written about one of the few indicators in economics that has earned its reputation over the years, and for good reason. It has preceded virtually every US recession since World War II. I’m talking about the inverted yield curve. The only recession in the modern era that occurred without an inverted yield curve was COVID, and that was an externally imposed shock, not a cyclically generated downturn.  John Mauldin May 22, 2026 https://www.mauldineconomics.com/frontlinethoughts/past-performance-is-not-indicative-of-future-results Prisnivån Price Level talas det inte mycket om.  De flesta kommenterar om KPI/CPI stigit med 0,2 eller 0,3 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/02/donald-trump-ar-inte-popular-bland.html

3,8 procent i april den högsta siffran på tre år  och förklaras bland annat av rusande priser på flygbiljetter, energi      och en oväntat hög kärninflation. DI 12 maj 2026, 15:12 https://www.di.se/live/hogsta-inflationen-i-usa-pa-tre-ar-flygpriserna-rusar/ Policymakers could leave their 2% target in place formally, but be all right with never quite getting there.  And then some years down the line, they could adopt a higher target. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/10/inflationsmalet-overges-i-tysthet.html  

Vance US and Iranian delegations are set to meet in Pakistan on Saturday. More U.S. Forces Deploy to Middle East https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/iran-war-latest-news-israel-us-lebanon-2026/card/more-u-s-forces-deploy-to-middle-east-aCya5kNVTR0CsBVX0Z3v Uppgifter: Framsteg i fredssamtal mellan Ukraina och Ryssland ”De förstår alla att kriget måste ta slut. Det är därför de förhandlar. Jag tror inte att det kommer dröja länge”, säger Ukrainas högsta förhandlare Kyrylo Budanov till Bloomberg.  Han poängterar att inga slutgiltiga beslut har fattat. ”Men i princip förstår alla nu tydligt gränserna för vad som är acceptabelt. Det är enorma framsteg”, säger han.  Det framgår inte varför Bloomberg publicerar intervjun först nu, sex dagar efter att den gjordes.  DI 10 april 2026, 11:47 https://www.di.se/live/uppgifter-framsteg-i-fredssamtal-mellan-ukraina-och-ryssland/ ”Fomo” lyfter börsen Om Stockholmbörsens muntra humör håller i sig blir det första fredagen sedan krigsutbrottet...

America does not have a price problem. It has a wage problem.  For years, policymakers celebrated cheap consumer goods as proof that globalization was working. After China entered the World Trade Organization in 2001, U.S. corporations shifted production overseas at an unprecedented speed.  The result was a surge in imports and a collapse in the price of tradable goods such as electronics, apparel and furniture. The research paper “On the Persistence of the China Shock” found that import competition accounted for more than half of the decline in U.S. manufacturing employment in the 2000s.  Roughly 3.4 million factory jobs disappeared. Most displaced workers did not transition into equally productive, equal-paying employment. Many left the labor force completely. If the United States wants to solve its affordability crisis, it must rebuild the wage base that once supported the middle class.  MarketWatch March 18, 2026  https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-does-e...

Bad midterms news for Trump. John Authera Bloomberg 9 March 2026 https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/newsletters/2026-03-09/iran-war-a-longer-conflict-is-already-here-for-markets IMF-chefen varnar för inflationssmäll Internationella valutafondens chef Kristalina Georgieva varnar för att kriget i Mellanöstern kommer att driva upp inflationen. En långvarig ökning av oljepriserna med 10 procent skulle resultera i en ökning av den globala inflationen med 0,4 procentenheter. DI 9 mars 2026 https://www.di.se/live/imf-chefen-varnar-for-inflationssmall-efter-oljeprisrallyt/ Tungt ras? https://www.di.se/nyheter/stockholmsborsen-mot-tungt-fall-logiskt/

JPMorgan Chief Jamie Dimon cautioned that there’s more optimism in the market than there should be given all the risks — such as conflict in the Middle East — that have cropped up. “Right now, the economy is doing fine, asset prices are high,” Dimon said Monday in a Bloomberg Television interview at his company’s annual global leveraged-finance conference in Miami.  “I think there’s a little more exuberance than there should be, but we’ve had years of it.” “I think the probabilities of something going south are more than other people think,” Dimon said. “I think inflation will cause the economic downturn.” Boomberg 2 March 2026 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-02/jamie-dimon-says-exuberant-market-doesn-t-match-fine-economy JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon warned that inflation could become a “skunk at a party” for the US economy. “There’s some risk there’s more inflation than people think, and that could be like a skunk at a party if that ...

Index för kärninflationen, core PCE, steg 3,0 procent jämfört med samma månad året innan. DI 20 februari 2026 https://www.di.se/live/hogre-inflation-och-lagre-bnp-tillvaxt-an-vantat-i-usa/  Policymakers could leave their 2% target in place formally, but be all right with never quite getting there. And then some years down the line, they could adopt a higher target. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/10/inflationsmalet-overges-i-tysthet.html Most can’t afford to buy a home. Consumers are downright gloomy about their finances nowadays, for one key reason: Most can’t afford to buy a home. A study published in January in the journal Economics Letters links consumer malaise in large part to the high cost of housing — which the Consumer Price Index undercounts. Entitled “The Cost of Money is Part of the Cost of Living: New Evidence on the Consumer Sentiment Anomaly,” The study was conducted by a group of researchers from Harvard University and the International Monetary Fund. They wr...

Americans are upset about the level of prices. That is, they’re not satisfied with inflation that’s down to 2 or 3 percent.  Having been accustomed over the past several decades to low inflation, Americans want to see prices fall to the levels they were at before the supply chain shock.  And because that isn’t happening (and basically can’t happen, but the public doesn’t know that), Americans are angry. Paul Krugman 22 April 2026 Att opinionssiffrorna dalar beror helt enkelt på att Trump inte rår på inflationen. En ny undersökning visar att medborgare i en rad europeiska länder ger sina regeringar underkänt. Orsaken är att regeringarna i Europa liksom i USA inte upplevs leverera verkliga förbättringar för medborgarna.  Utan leverans kan man inte heller förvänta sig att folk ska fortsätta stödja demokratin.  Det skriver statsvetaren Francis Fukuyama i artikeln ”Delivering for Democracy: Why Results Matter”. Anders Sundell SvD 18 februari 2026 https://www.svd.se/a/y54d...