Apple Closes In on $4 Trillion Valuation
Apple Closes In on $4 Trillion Valuation https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-10-21-2025/card/apple-closes-in-on-4-trillion-valuation-sh2hp2PRcICp9CoaIXyn
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7 + 493 = 500
Magnificent seven – Apple, Amazon, Google (Alphabet), Microsoft, Meta, Nvidia och Tesla Enligt Goldman Sachs hade bolagen en årlig vinstökning på 28 procent det senaste kvartalet. Och den amerikanska börsen går överlag fortfarande mycket starkt. Men tittar man på de andra 493 bolagen i S&P 500 är motsvarande siffra 6 procent. Björn Jeffery SvD 15 september 2025 https://www.svd.se/a/RzkmXW/ai-rushen-tecknen-hopas-toppen-kan-vara-nara Magnificent Seven earnings growth of 18.1%; “other 493” 0.1%. Authers https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/11/magnificent-seven-earnings-growth-of.html
This Investing Trend Is Your Friend—Until It Isn’t
Momentum, an oddly successful investment strategy, might be nearing the danger zone Spencer Jakab Wall Street Journal 31 March 31, 2025 https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/this-investing-trend-is-your-frienduntil-it-isnt-70d156b6 Monday saw a 0.6% decline in the S&P 500, which doesn’t sound like anything to get excited about given the index is still up 27% on the year. But actually, it was a historic day in one sense – momentum stocks plunged. december 10, 2024 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/12/momentum-stocks-plunged.html Tillbaka till Rolfs länktips 31 mars 2025 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/03/rolfs-lanktips-31-mars-2025.html
I Quit Google Search for AI—and I’m Not Going Back
Key Points AI chatbots like ChatGPT and Perplexity provide clear, human-sounding answers to search queries, eliminating the need for scrolling through sponsored links and clickbait. AI search excels in providing concise information, product recommendations, and how-to guides, while Google Search remains superior for accessing specific webpages and accurate local information. While AI chatbots offer convenience, it's crucial to verify information by clicking on source links to support trusted sources and maintain the open web. Joanna Stern Wall Street Journal 26 March 2025 https://www.wsj.com/tech/personal-tech/google-search-chatgpt-perplexity-gemini-6ac749d9 More than two decades Google Search ruled the web; then came ChatGPT https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/03/more-than-two-decades-google-search.html Tillbaka till Rolfs länktips 26 mars 2025 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/03/rolfs-lanktips-26-mars-2025.html
More than two decades Google Search ruled the web; then came ChatGPT
Google Search currently processes almost 200,000 queries each secondt, generating more than $198 billion in revenue in 2024, almost 60% of Alphabet’s annual sales. Then in 2022, OpenAI introduced something new. Within the past several years blog posts began appearing about the declining quality of Google Search. “People have high expectations for search and what it does for them,” says Pandu Nayak, Google’s chief search scientist. “And when it delivers on those high expectations, they don’t notice it because it’s just working the way it should.” Bloomberg 24 March 2025 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2025-03-24/google-s-ai-search-overhaul-racing-chatgpt-for-the-web-s-future
Slutet närmar sig för ”Mag 7”
CNBC Magnificent 7 Index Sommaren 2024 utgjorde Mag 7-bolagen 31 procent av hela marknadsvärdet i amerikanska S&P 500-indexet, en rekordhög koncentration till teknikgiganterna. I dag är motsvarande siffra drygt 28 procent, med andra ord fortfarande hög. Det är ingen nyhet att Tesla är högt värderat eller att Apples tillväxt går att ifrågasätta. Men inget förändrar sentiment lika mycket som pris brukar man säga, och nu när kursutvecklingen varit svag under flera månader har marknaden tydliga incitament att omvärdera sin syn. FANG, FAANG, och Mag7 FANG: Akronymen myntades av den amerikanska börskommentatorn Jim Cramer för mer än 10 år sedan. Bokstäverna står för Facebook (i dag Meta), Amazon, Netflix och Google (i dag Alphabet). FAANG: Facebook , Amazon, Apple, Netflix och Google. Mag 7: En fortkortning för Magnificent 7, och syftar till Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia och Tesla. DI 21 mars 2025 https://www.di.se/analys/slutet-narmar-sig-for-mag-7/ ...
Things Fall Apart
Something much bigger is going on than simply correcting prices. Events of the last 24 hours have made ever clearer a trend that has been taking shape for years: Germany has decided to go ahead with massive borrowing to fund rearmament, and the DAX surged while US stocks fell; BYD, the popular Chinese electric vehicle maker, unveiled a new charging system that allows motorists to recharge their battery in only five minutes. That’s provoked a mini-DeepSeek Moment for Tesla, Bank of America’s latest survey of fund managers found the biggest switch away from US stocks on record. Rather than the globalized free markets that have held sway since the end of the Cold War, the world is reallocating itself into independent groups or spheres of interest. This is a new form of mercantilism, or autarky — the economic term for national self-sufficiency. John Authers Bloomberg 19 mars 2025 https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-03-19/remaking-the-world-thr...
Why pay for closed models if a free, equally capable alternative exists?
In recent weeks, Chinese tech groups including Alibaba, Baidu and Tencent have been flooding the market with powerful open-source AI models. But in an industry where secrecy is the norm, the real shock is their openness — these models are free to download, modify and integrate. June Yoon Financial Times 19 March 2025 https://www.ft.com/content/13df6250-dffb-40fc-bb79-309764fa3905 Tillbaka till Rolfs länktips 19 mars 2025 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/03/rolfs-lanktips-19-mars-2025.html
Jeremy Grantham varnar för Crash
The city of Doncaster, South Yorkshire, is a long way from the gleaming skyscrapers of Boston, Massachusetts, but they are both places that the British stock picker Jeremy Grantham calls home. Grantham, 86, is one Britain’s most successful investors, having made his name on Wall Street in the 1960s at GMO, the Boston-based $63bn money manager, which still bears his name. He represents the G. As an investor he predicted the dotcom bust and has been likened to “the skunk at the garden party” for his grumpy pessimism when the stock markets are riding. But ever since US markets cratered last week, Grantham has been transformed from a doomster into a Cassandra figure whose warnings should have been heeded. He claims to have studied 300 historical financial bubbles throughout history, including England’s canal building and railway construction busts during the Industrial Revolution, and now his long-standing predictions that the AI bubble will pop appears to be bearing fruit...
What the Dot-Com Bust Can Tell Us About Today’s AI Boom
Carlota Perez, author of “Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital: The Dynamics of Bubbles and Golden Ages.” https://www.bokus.com/bok/9781843763314/technological-revolutions-and-financial-capital/ AI innovators are making their own gargantuan capital investments, primarily in specialized semiconductors known as graphics processing units, or GPUs, made by Nvidia. Today Nvidia is among the most valuable companies in the world, with a market capitalization of $2.7 trillion. The question is whether those investments will lead to productivity advances that power the economy, or elements of a good bubble. Wall Street Journal 10 March 2025 https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/what-the-dot-com-bust-can-tell-us-about-todays-ai-boom-c78482e7 Tillbaka till Rolfs länktips 10 mars 2025 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/03/rolfs-lanktips-10-mars-2025.html
I dag för 25 år sedan. Inte lätt för 27-åringar att minnas.
What the Dot-Com Bust Can Tell Us About Today’s AI Boom Wall Street Journal 10 March 2025 What the Dot-Com Bust Can Tell Us About Today’s AI Boom Hur vet man när en bubbla har spruckit? För tjugofem år sedan i måndags, nådde ett flerårigt amerikanskt aktierally sin topp och började en brant nedgång som skulle ta bort 77 procent av värdet på Nasdaq när det slutligen kratrades två år senare. Nuförtiden har dotcom-bubblan blivit en förkortning för dumdristig entusiasm för ny teknik och blind girighet. Så många investerare kastade pengar på uppenbart olönsamma internetföretag att marknaderna var tvungna att komma till sorg. Men om man ser tillbaka på vad folk sa i mars 2000, blir det tydligt att det är mycket svårare att upptäcka den exakta vändpunkten än man kan tro. How do you know when a bubble has popped? Twenty-five years ago on Monday, a multiyear US stock rally hit its peak and began a precipitous decline that would wipe 77 per cent off the value of the Nasdaq by the time it finally...
How big is the stock market’s America bubble?
US stocks’ huge surge since the global financial crisis means they account for almost two-thirds of the world’s investable market Ccompanies linked to artificial intelligence — which is now worth almost as much as all the stocks in Europe combined. Tthe global crash of 1973-74 hit the US particularly hard. Wall Street stocks did not climb back to its late 1960s peak for more than 20 years Difficult to push against the trend, because “naysayers have been wrong many times over”, The Magnificent Seven group of giant technology stocks — Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla — hold almost a third of the S&P 500’s $51.8tn market value Financial Times 3 mars 2025 https://www.ft.com/content/80d0ca38-7b15-4432-891d-d9b1d5b080ca The bear market that walloped stocks in 1973 and 1974. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/02/it-has-been-long-time.html
The economy is built on the idea that expertise is scarce and expensive. AI is about to...
... make it abundant and practically free. For most of history, hiring a dozen PhDs meant a massive budget and months of lead time. Today, a few keystrokes in a chatbot summon that brainpower in seconds. The question facing individuals and organizations alike is: What will you do when intelligence itself is suddenly ubiquitous/överallt and practically free? This isn’t the first time we’ve witnessed a revolutionary drop in the cost and distribution of knowledge. When the printing press emerged in the mid-15th century The Internet extended this trend by dramatically reducing the cost of accessing reliable information. When I was a child, researching a new topic meant walking to the local library It wasn’t until an afternoon in January 2023, while sitting with my 12-year-old daughter, that I started to realize the true power of these new tools. Over the course of a few hours, we worked with ChatGPT to design an entirely new board game. What I had experienced was a system that could seemin...
“What happened to sentiment? Everywhere you look, fear has set into the collective mood,”
But what’s remarkable about the current bout of worry is that as of Wednesday’s close the S&P 500 was down by merely 3.1% from its record finish, set just a week earlier on Feb. 19. “It takes a lot less to strike fear into investors than it has in the past,” the analysts wrote. “If there is one word to describe the state of investor sentiment right now, complacent it is not.” MarketWatch 27 February 2025 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/extremely-fearful-stock-market-sentiment-shows-investors-scare-easily-right-now-75d2edc2 Rolfs länktips 19 Februari 2025 Time Machine https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/02/rolfs-lanktips-19-februari-2025.html For two years, Wall Street traders have minted profits simply by chasing the hottest stocks in the market regardless of price, fundamentals or the economic backdrop. Those days appear to be over. Killing the so-called momentum trade that’s been driving the latest stock market rally. “The S&P 500 has welcomed lower yie...
Vad betyder Nvidias bokslut?
Börserna världen över väntar med spänning på Nvidias bokslut. Det kan bli bättre än väntat. Eller till och med sämre. Men vad säger det om övriga IT-aktier? Och vad säger det om tillståndet i världsekonomin? Platt intet.
Cevians vd och medgrundare Christer Gardell vill inte dödförklara AI-hajpen, men ser Svart Svan
”AI kommer att ha stor inverkan på allt möjligt men sektorn är galet övervärderad. Sedan är det mycket spekulativa flöden och kasinopengar – så fort något nytt kommer in på börsen vill många vara med och spela – så där kommer det att smälla ordentligt”, säger han. Hur sårbar är du själv för en AI-smäll? ”Inte alls, vi håller inte på med sådant där.” Christer Gardell är mer orolig för västvärldens relation med Kina framöver. ”Skulle väst gå för hårt åt och isolera Kina för mycket riskerar världen att slitas isär i ett ‘vi och dom’. Det är den verkligt stora svarta svanen. Dagens industri 14 februari 2025 https://www.di.se/digital/gardell-varnar-dar-kommer-det-smalla-ordentligt/ Tillbaka till Rolfs länktips 14 Februari 2025 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/02/rolfs-lanktips-14-februari-2025.html
By 2028, US will need to boost annual electricity generation by as much as 26 per cent
from 2023 levels to meet demand, far higher than any supply growth the US has achieved in the past two decades Nearly 45 per cent of this demand growth is being driven by the construction of power-hungry data centres required to support the rollout of AI technologies. Financial Times 4 February 2025 https://www.ft.com/content/47dbfee3-5517-43c6-85ab-dfe86d2d4085 Tillbaka till Rolfs länktips 4 Februari 2025 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/02/rolfs-lanktips-4-februari-2025.html
Den nya EU-backade språkmodellen ”Open Euro”
”Jag har propagerat länge för att det behövs en stor satsning, inte tio små”, säger professorn och Silo-grundaren Peter Sarlin som ska leda EU-forskarna. EU-kommissionens satsning ”Euro HPC” – kort för ”high performance computing”. Donald Trump presenterade nyligen projektet Stargate – ett samarbete mellan investerare, AI-experter och molnjättar som tillsammans säger sig villiga att lägga över 500 miljarder dollar över fyra år på amerikansk AI-utveckling, inte minst genom att bygga datacenter och infrastruktur. EU-kommissionens initiala bidrag till Open Euro är 54 miljoner euro, motsvarande 620 miljoner kronor. Det inkluderar dock inte kostnaderna för att träna de kommande AI-modellerna. ”Det är huvudsakligen för löner”, förklarar Peter Sarlin Peter Sarlin blir i egenskap av professor och grundare av finländska Silo – som jobbar nära Wallenbergs Combient-nätverk DI 3 februari 2025 https://www.di.se/digital/de-bygger-europas-deepseek-ai-profilen-ska-leda-forskarna/ EuroHPC JU is a ...
Bill Gates född 1955 : I dag hade jag fått diagnosen autism
DN 3 februari 2025 https://www.dn.se/varlden/bill-gates-i-dag-hade-jag-fatt-diagnosen-autism/
Alibaba’s Qwen team released a new family of AI models, Qwen2.5-VL
... that can perform a number of text and image analysis tasks. The models can parse files, understand videos, and count objects in images, as well as control a PC — similar to the model powering OpenAI’s recently launched Operator. Per the Qwen team’s benchmarking, the best Qwen2.5-VL model beats OpenAI’s GPT-4o, Anthropic’s Claude 3.5 Sonnet, and Google’s Gemini 2.0 Flash on a range of video understanding, math, document analysis, and question-answering evaluations. https://techcrunch.com/2025/01/27/alibabas-qwen-team-releases-ai-models-that-can-control-pcs-and-phones/ DeepSeek Just Lost to Alibaba’s New AI! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0GQe7FUkZBA&t Tillbaka till Rolfs länktips 1-2 Februari 2025 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/02/rolfs-lanktips-1-2-februari-2025.html