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Kina riskerar att fastna i en självförstärkande deflationsspiral.  Ett stort problem som Kina brottas med just nu. Sedan september 2022 har det samlade prisläget fallit med drygt 2 procent. Kommunistpartiet förstår faran Det spelar roll. För ju mer priserna sjunker, desto större är risken att tillväxten i världens näst största ekonomi minskar under många år – till och med årtionden.  Om det händer blir det svårare för Kina att nå sitt mål om att officiellt klassas som ett höginkomstland, eller ta över tronen som världens största ekonomi, menar Bloomberg. År av stigande inkomster och fastighetsvinster har gett näring åt drömmar om uppåtgående rörlighet, men nu urholkar deflationen i tysthet självförtroendet hos Kinas en gång så uppåtsträvande medelklass. Johan Carlström SvD 23 december 2025 https://www.svd.se/a/JO13ER/nytt-begrepp-skapar-problem-for-kina-kan-sla-mot-sverige

  The Chanel quilted flap purse, left, has been trying to mimic the success of the Hermès Birkin bag.  Photo: Edward Berthelot/Getty Images, Eric Helgas for WSJ Chanel’s most recognizable products, the quilted classic flap purse, has become emblematic of the extraordinary price increases in luxury goods.  American shoppers pay $10,800 for the bag today, up from $5,800 in 2019. Professionals in the luxury-goods industry think that Chanel may be trying to compete directly with Hermès’s most popular handbag, the Birkin.  Birkin limits how many it produce To get a Birkin, shoppers must build a relationship with one of the brand’s sales assistants and wait to be offered a purse. This creates a perception that the biggest spenders get access to Birkins and encourages customers to splurge on other goods To get their hands on a Birkin 25 in basic Togo leather, shoppers might have to shell out $10,000 or more on other goods they don’t necessarily want.  https://www.wsj.c...

  She was just a "regular" person when she and her husband bought their family home in Vancouver 25 years ago for a modest sum of  $312,000 in today's dollars. That same property is now worth several million. In the city on Canada's west coast, Ms Yamauchi's story is as common as the rainy weather. The average price of a detached home in Vancouver in 2000 was around C$350,000. Now, it is more than C$2m. As a member of Generation X, timing was on her side. The same, she says, cannot be said for younger people, who - without "the bank of mom and dad" - are effectively priced out of the city they grew up in. Canada as a whole has one of the highest house-price-to-income ratios among developed nations. BBC 18 April 2025 https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cy70y75v5l7o A mortgage binge fuelled by rock-bottom interest rates has left each country with enormous quantities of household debt.  As a share of disposable income, such debt sits at 185% in Canada, 202% i...

  It was the moment China’s leaders finally blinked. After four years of standing by as property developers like China Evergrande Group spiraled into default,  Communist Party officials decided in late January that China Vanke Co. — one of the country’s last surviving real-estate giants —  was, for now at least, too big to fail. The unprecedented intervention has triggered a sigh of relief in markets, but it also underscores a somber reality:  The property crisis that hobbled China’s economy and created a nearly $160 billion pile of distressed debt — the world’s largest — is getting worse. Bloomberg 11 February 2025 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2025-02-11/china-s-real-estate-crisis-property-sector-debt-is-getting-worse Tillbaka till Rolfs länktips 13 Februari 2025 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/02/rolfs-lanktips-13-februari-2025.html

Riksbankschef Erik Thedéen litar inte på att bankerna är tillräckligt restriktiva med sin utlåning:  ”Vi vet ju att när vi inte hade amorteringskrav då annonserade bankerna: kom till oss, du slipper amortera”. Räntesänkningar och ökade tillgångspriser har gjort det svenska finansiella systemet mer stabilt.   – Vårt övergripande budskap i dag är att stabilitetsriskerna har minskat på kort sikt. Det har bland annat att göra med att det har blivit lättare (för företag; reds anm) att finansiera sig på obligationsmarknaden och i banksektorn, säger Erik Thedéen I sin rapport varnar Riksbanken för att lättare krav kan kan leda till snabbt stigande skulder och bostadspriser, särskilt givet att räntorna nu faller. En sådan utveckling skulle i sin tur leda till ökade risker för den finansiella stabiliteten. – Jag ser ingenstans att utredarna slår hål på den grundläggande tesen: att ökade skulder utgör en risk, säger han. Johan Carlström SvD 14 november 2024 https://www.svd.se/a/yE9...

  By targeting unsold homes, the government believes it can fix some of the economy’s most glaring problems. With so many flats on the market, developers are hesitant to start new projects. When they halt construction they also stop leasing government land—a shock to heavily indebted local governments, whose main source of revenue is land leasing. Analysts fear the government’s plan will ultimately fall short of fixing the market. It does not focus enough on uncompleted flats for which payment has already been received, a nightmare scenario that puts off buyers.  Households are waiting for over 20m such homes to be finished; the developers of many are bankrupt. The Economist 31 October 2024 https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2024/10/31/why-china-needs-to-fill-its-empty-homes Chinese people had nearly 78% of their wealth tied up in residential property https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/04/chinas-real-estate-boom-developers-home.html China; the new Japan https:...

  SvT 18 oktober 2024 https://www.svtplay.se/video/ed6MnZr/ekonomibyran/miljonarerna-drar-ifran Har den stigande svenska förmögenhets­koncentrationen på senare tid skett på övriga gruppers bekostnad? Inte mycket tyder på det.  Bostadsägande ökar jämlikheten i förmögenheter. Daniel Waldenström SvD 19 oktober 2024 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/10/vi-har-i-dag-fler-miljardarer-nagonsin.html Cervenka: De senaste trettio åren har varit en fantastisk period för alla som ägt tillgångar, alltifrån bostäder till aktier. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/04/cervenka-de-senaste-trettio-aren-har.html Andreas Cervenka  https://www.aftonbladet.se/av/andreas-cervenka Tillbaka till Wall Street och Stockholm 24 oktober 2024 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/10/wall-street-och-stockholm-24-oktober.html

  Americans are sitting on more than $35 trillion in home equity after a 75% surge since early 2020 thanks to booming home prices.  Homeowners often get itchy fingers to tap the equity like a personal ATM, and a rush to do so could pose an inflation risk for the Federal Reserve considering the massive pileup in value.  But many homeowners today are reluctant to use it as a source of cash. Wall Street Journal 22 October 2024 https://www.wsj.com/articles/pro-take-americans-home-equity-surges-to-over-35-trillion-d8eafc05 "Balance Sheet Boom" https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/10/balance-sheet-boom.html North Dakota voters could end property taxes; Klas Eklund mest korkade ekonomisk-politiska beslut https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/10/north-dakota-voters-could-end-property.html

 Priserna på bostäder och aktier har stigit till rekordnivåer.  Enbart sedan 1980 har hushållens samlade förmögenhet ökat sjufalt efter justering för inflation. I dag utgör bostäder och fonderat pensions­sparande fyra femtedelar av allt ägande i Sverige. Har den stigande svenska förmögenhets­koncentrationen på senare tid skett på övriga gruppers bekostnad? Inte mycket tyder på det.  Bostadsägande ökar jämlikheten i förmögenheter. Daniel Waldenström SvD 19 oktober 2024 https://www.svd.se/a/eMqO2Q/daniel-waldenstrom-sa-blir-vi-rikare-och-minskar-klyftorn a professor i national­ekonomi och docent i ekonomisk historia, Institutet för näringslivs­forskning https://www.ifn.se/om-ifn/

  The chart shows quarterly HUD data for actual selling prices For sales in Q2 2014, the average price was $288,000. Ten years later in Q2 2024 it was $426,800, a 48.2% increase.  That was actually down a bit from the Q4 2022 peak, when the average selling price was $442,600, a 53.7% increase in 8½ years.  Notice, however, when most of the gains occurred. Home prices zoomed higher in the COVID era, gaining 39.6% in the 2½ years from Q2 2020.  I think the COVID-driven monetary and fiscal stimulus was a much bigger factor. The Fed’s easy policy made borrowing cheap while other programs put cash in people’s pockets.  Consumer goods spending boosted profits at many businesses. This led to higher salaries, bonuses, and stock prices. A small number of business owners and executives ended up with a lot of extra money, some of which went to buying new homes.  Naturally, prices rose. A similar trend unfolded in rental properties.  Homeownership became “the Amer...

FI förtydligade hur banker ska beräkna NSFR, på svenska kallat stabil nettofinansieringskvot.  FI uppgav att bankerna endast får tillgodoräkna sig 50 procent av den obundna inlåning som kommer via inlåningsplattformar, där många nischbanker inkluderat minst 90 procent. Med den beräkningsmetod som Norion fortfarande använder uppgår NSFR till 141 procent – långt över kravet på 100 procent.  Men med den beräkningsmetod som FI anser är korrekt, och som måste användas vid nästa kvartalsrapport, är den nuvarande nivån alltså endast 103 procent. DI 18 oktober 2024 https://www.di.se/nyheter/erik-selins-nischbank-nara-att-bryta-mot-likviditetskrav/ Nischbanken Norion, tidigare Collector - RE: Kanske skulle kraven på att bli bank skärpas. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/04/nischbanken-norion-tidigare-collector.html Balders grundare och vd Erik Selin berättar https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/07/balders-grundare-och-vd-erik-selin.html RE: Det är för aktörer av detta slag som ...

Det gör såväl den svenska ekonomin som svenska hushåll sårbara.  Åtgärder har vidtagits men mer behöver göras för att komma till rätta med osunda lånesituationer Daniel Barr, generaldirektör Finansinspektionen DI 18 oktober 2024 https://www.di.se/debatt/hog-skuldsattning-stor-risk-for-ekonomin/ Tillbaka till Wall Street och Stockholm 18 oktober 2024 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/10/wall-street-och-stockholm-18-oktober.html

  In the first half of this year  lenders originated more than 333,000 new home-equity loans totaling about $23.6 billion With home values soaring over the last few years, homeowners who have built up equity are turning to home-equity loans to cash in on their gains.  Homeowners are tapping into their home equity to cover expenses such as home renovations or to consolidate debt. They’re taking on a second mortgage rather than refinancing because they want to avoid giving up the relatively low rate on their primary mortgage.  Aarthi Swaminathan MarketWatch 12 October 2024 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/homeowners-havent-drained-cash-out-of-their-houses-this-fast-since-2008-2e080b36 U.S. Home Prices Hit Record in June - Sverige har en liknande utveckling https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/07/us-home-prices-hit-record-in-june.html Housing Bubbles in America https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/06/housing-bubbles-in-america-wolf-street.html Why the bulls are run...

Jag tycker inte räntan skall sänkas. Den kan gott ligga kvar ett tag till. Det behövs för att upprätthålla, eller snarare återupprätta, disciplinen i systemet. Om några högt belånade bostadsägare eller fastighetsbolag drabbas är det ett rimligt pris för det höga syftet. Men ekonomin går ju ner, det behövs väl stimulans, kommer den vanliga kohorten att invända. Javisst, men då är det bättre att stimulera med till exempel höjda barnbidrag. Detta har jag tyckt länge.  - Jag tycker det är skriande uppenbart att räntan världen över är för låg och att en större del av stimulanserna borde ske via finanspolitiken, skrev jag den 5 december 2009. Den Österrikiska skolan, med Hayek i spetsen, brukar hävda att krisen måste ha sin gång.  Man skulle kanske kunna förklara deras synsätt med Ensamma Mamman contra villaägarna,  som jag skrev om den 25 januari 2008: Om uppgången före kraschen skedde genom våldsamt stegrade barnbidrag skulle de ha lett till att ensamma mamman skyndade till L...

    Utlandsfonder sänker kronan? https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/06/utlandsfonder-sanker-kronan-juni-2024.html Den svenska kronan faller mystiskt under måndagseftermiddagen  Den svenska kronan faller mystiskt under måndagseftermiddagen (englundmacro.blogspot.com)

The honour, which was approved by the Queen, is to recognise Mr Greenspan's "contribution to global economic stability" BBC 7 August 2002 http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/2177814.stm

  Bloomberg 5 maj 2024

Americans are sitting on a record amount of tappable home equity at $11 trillion Home equity loosely corresponds with how much housing wealth one has: It is the difference between how much a homeowner owes on their mortgage and the market value of their house.  “Tappable equity” refers to the amount the homeowner can leverage while maintaining a 20% equity buffer. Homeowners can tap into their equity by doing a cash-out refinance or taking out a home equity line of credit.  Roughly 48 million people have access to tappable equity, which averages out to about $206,000 per homeowner, up from $185,000 at the same time last year.  RE: Typ 20 miljoner kronor, i genomsnitt. Aarthi Swaminathan MarketWatch 6 May 2024 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/americans-are-sitting-on-a-record-amount-of-tappable-home-equity-at-11-trillion-heres-how-much-cash-is-trapped-in-your-home-c30c1887 Powell thinks interest rates are restrictive,  that they are slowing the economy and thus shoul...

Commercial real estate faces a ‘slow moving train wreck.’ The roughly $20 trillion U.S. commercial real-estate market has been facing a big liquidity crunch that looks to get worse if interest rates stay high as a deluge of debt comes due. Roughly half of the estimated $4.7 trillion of the debt on commercial buildings set to mature through 2027. Many of “these mortgages need to be extended  MarketWatch 30 April 2024 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/commercial-real-estate-faces-a-slow-moving-train-wreck-here-are-fixes-for-lawmakers-834c0eaa The World’s Empty Office Buildings Have Become a Debt Time Bomb Extend and Pretend https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2023/06/the-worlds-empty-office-buildings-have.html

That was 2016, during the heady days when the Chinese property boom was just getting going. Even then, the truth was obvious to anyone who knew what to look for: The boom had turned into a bubble—and was likely to end very badly. The bubble proceeded to get even worse, though, because no one wanted the music to stop.  Chinese developers, home buyers, real-estate agents and even the Wall Street banks that helped underwrite the boom all ignored warning signs.  The total value of Chinese homes and developers’ inventory hit $52 trillion, according to Goldman Sachs, twice the size of the U.S. residential market and bigger than the entire U.S. bond market.  Chinese people had nearly 78% of their wealth tied up in residential property Rebecca Feng Wall Street Journal 24 April 2024  https://www.wsj.com/real-estate/china-real-estate-bubble-bust-35a2b7db Citigroup chairman Chuck Prince Dance While The Music Still Goes On a month before the music stopped 2007.  https://eng...