Englund

  Planer­na ses som en markering från president Macron om att fransmännen är beredda att ta större ansvar för Europas försvar. Luxeuil kommer enligt Macron att vara den ”första flygbasen som får den nästa versionen av Rafale och dess hypersoniska kärnvapenrobot”. Upprustningen av Luxeuil-basen ska vara klar 2035 Therese Larsson Hultin SvD 19 March 2025 https://www.svd.se/a/4Bg4EV/macron-placerar-karnvapen-vid-tyska-gransen

  Officials again left interest rates alone,  but signaled it may cut them twice this year  

  Muntert på Wall Street efter Feds räntebesked Bland vinnarna märktes Boeing som steg efter  optimistiska utblandanden från bolagets finanschef. https://www.di.se/live/muntert-pa-wall-street-efter-feds-rantebesked/ Jag tycker i dag  att fixering vid inflationsmålet två procent är sjukligt. Om priserna stiger när Trump höjer tullarna säger regeln att räntorna skall höjas. Men folk har ju fått sänkta reallöner av de stigande priserna. Då behövs det ingen räntehöjning för att kyla av ekonomin. Det skulle Biggles har klarat bättre. Biggles löser finanskrisen Things Fall Apart  Something much bigger is going on than simply correcting prices. The world is reallocating itself into independent groups  or spheres of interest.  https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/03/things-fall-apart.html Ambrose It’s no longer safe to buy weapons from Trump’s America https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/03/ambrose-its-no-longer-safe-to-buy.html GSIBs; Globally systemically imp...

  Too Big To Fail isn’t what it used to be! By Antje Berndt, Darrell Duffie, and Yichao Zhu For globally systemically important banks (GSIBs) with US headquarters,  we find significant reductions in market-implied probabilities of government bailout after the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). Great links, images, and reading from Chartbook Newsletter by Adam Tooze The Decline of Too Big to Fail https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.20220846 The alchemy is “the belief that money kept in banks can be taken out whenever depositors ask for it”, Lord Mervyn King, former governor of the Bank of England. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2016/06/the-alchemy-is-belief-that-money-kept.html Silicon Valley Bank  https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2023/05/silicon-valley-bank-feds-review.html Banking stands revealed as a part of the state masquerading as part of the private sector. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2023/03/banking-stands-revealed-as-part-of.html Big Banks Are Sup...

  ”Vi ser goda förutsättningar för att konjunkturen ska vända”,  säger finansminister Elisabeth Svantesson (M). DI/TT 19 mars 2025   https://www.di.se/live/regeringen-varnar-for-hogre-arbetsloshet/

Something much bigger is going on than simply correcting prices. Events of the last 24 hours have made ever clearer a trend that has been taking shape for years:  Germany has decided to go ahead with massive borrowing to fund rearmament, and the DAX surged while US stocks fell;  BYD, the popular Chinese electric vehicle maker, unveiled a new charging system that allows motorists to recharge their battery in only five minutes.  That’s provoked a mini-DeepSeek Moment for Tesla, Bank of America’s latest survey of fund managers found the biggest switch away from US stocks on record. Rather than the globalized free markets that have held sway since the end of the Cold War, the world is reallocating itself into independent groups or spheres of interest.  This is a new form of mercantilism, or autarky — the economic term for national self-sufficiency.  John Authers Bloomberg 19 mars 2025  https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-03-19/remaking-the-world-thr...

  “Nobody needs to buy an F-35,” said Tom Enders, ex-Airbus chief and now head of the German Council on Foreign Relations.  He said Germany’s contract for these fighters was a misguided attempt by Angela Merkel to “appease” Trump during his first term. It should be cancelled forthwith. Ambrose Evans-Pritchard Telegraph 18 March 2025 https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/03/18/no-longer-safe-buy-weapons-donald-trump-america/ RE: EU-federalisterna tar denna chans, liksom alla chanser, att ta steg framåt mot deras dröm om ett Europas Förenta Stater - ESA. De tror, eller låtsas tro, att Trump's America will be forever.  Expressen: USA:s svek visar att Sverige måste skaffa euron https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/03/expressen-usas-svek-visar-att-sverige.html Tillbaka till Rolfs länktips 19 mars 2025 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/03/rolfs-lanktips-19-mars-2025.html

  Enligt henne befinner sig styrräntan redan på en nivå som håller tillbaka ekonomin i stället för att stötta den.  Givet lågkonjunkturen är det därför osannolikt att Riksbanken i närtid skulle vilja byta spår och börja höja styrräntan, säger hon. SvD 19 mars 2025 https://www.svd.se/a/25lwkx/ekonomer-splittrade-om-riksbankens-nasta-drag

  In recent weeks, Chinese tech groups including Alibaba, Baidu and Tencent have been flooding the market with powerful  open-source   AI models.  But in an industry where secrecy is the norm, the real shock is their openness — these models are free to download, modify and integrate.  June Yoon Financial Times 19 March 2025 https://www.ft.com/content/13df6250-dffb-40fc-bb79-309764fa3905 Tillbaka till Rolfs länktips 19 mars 2025 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/03/rolfs-lanktips-19-mars-2025.html

If one is to understand this more sophisticated approach, one should read Miran’s “A User’s Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System”, published in November 2024. Underpinning Miran’s argument is a proposition made by the Belgian economist Robert Triffin in the early 1960s.  Triffin argued that the growing demand for dollars as a reserve asset could only be supplied by persistent US current account deficits.  This in turn meant that the dollar was persistently overvalued relative to the requirements of equilibrium in the balance of payments. Martin Wolf Financial Times 18 March 2025 https://www.ft.com/content/9fa4a76d-60bb-45cd-aba0-744973f98dea

I have never heard Democrats so confused: about who they are — aside from their opposition to Donald Trump — as well as how and why they lost. Democrats are losing working-class voters. They’re seeing their margins among nonwhite voters erode and vanish. They’re losing young voters.  Something is wrong in the Democratic Party. So I think it’s important that the conversation among Democrats is grounded on a pretty real understanding of what happened in 2024. Ezra Klein New York Times 18 March 2025 https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/18/opinion/ezra-klein-podcast-david-shor.html Attention; the world’s most valuable resource.  The notion now is that at every single moment when you are competing for someone’s attention, you are competing against literally every piece of content ever produced. Kamala Harris and Tim Walz and before them, Joe Biden — before the changeover, they were just terrified of an interview going badly. And Trump and Vance — they were all over the place, including ...

 ... as President Donald Trump’s erratic trade war sparked fears over the US economy and prompted a heavy Wall Street sell-off. Allocations to US equities plunged 40 percentage points, from 17 per cent overweight in February to net underweight 23 per cent in March Stagflation fears, the global trade war and an end of US exceptionalism were cited as drivers Financial Times 18 March 2025 https://www.ft.com/content/e0b8fcfe-77a9-456d-bb6a-d2b8b489577d Treasury secretary Bessent: ‘Corrections are healthy’ ‘Corrections are healthy’  

  Techjättarna sänkte New York-börserna – Tesla fortsatte ned https://www.di.se/live/techjattarna-sankte-new-york-borserna-tesla-fortsatte-ned/ Poetry in ocean: Hong Kong from the water  https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/03/poetry-in-ocean-hong-kong-from-water.html   Kina  Förra året installerades sol- och vindkraft  motsvarande cirka 320 atomreaktorer https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/03/kina-forra-aret-installerades-sol-och.html Democrats Need to Face Why Trump Won https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/03/democrats-need-to-face-why-trump-won.html Svenskt Näringsliv: Ett problem med att försöka nå ett avtal  är att det inte går att lita på Trump https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/03/svenskt-naringsliv-ett-problem-med-att.html EU-länder överväger 40 miljarder i militärt stöd till Ukraina https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/03/eu-lander-overvager-40-miljarder-i.html Musten gick ur den initialt muntra Stockholmsbörsen    efter att USA-b...

  Låt oss låtsas vi är ensamma en stund Donald Trump’s peace efforts falter The outcome of the call — the second with the Russian president since Trump returned to office — underscored his difficulty in translating his vision of a quick peace in Ukraine into a workable pact palatable to both Moscow and Kyiv. Having repeatedly cast himself during last year’s US presidential campaign as an agent of global peace, Trump is now struggling to end the brutal wars he vowed to stop. The call with Putin came just hours after the collapse of a ceasefire deal in Gaza brokered between Israel and Hamas by Trump allies and officials from Joe Biden’s administration in January. Financial Times 19 March 2025 https://www.ft.com/content/7180bf6a-4e12-424f-a591-0853875f6734 Fredssamtalen har kört fast – svår motgång för Trump j https://www.dn.se/varlden/michael-winiarski-fredssamtalen-har-kort-fast-svar-motgang-for-trump/ Putin har gått med på att upphöra med attackerna mot Ukrainas elnät under en 30-d...

Vad jag säger och skriver har tyvärr – eller kanske turligt nog – ingen som helst betydelse så riskerna är försumbara  (utom för mitt eget rykte som observatör och kommentator vilket egentligen inte heller spelar någon roll för mina möjligheter, som ändå är obefintliga, att få den där ryttarstatyn på Stureplan som jag alltid önskat mig). 18 mars, 2025   https://detgodasamhallet.com/2025/03/18/patrik-engellau-finns-det-nagon-koalition-av-villiga/

  https://www.ft.com/content/383ecb40-26f1-4cb2-8897-0ee0ff558662 See inside a 155 mph sleeper train  connecting Hong Kong and Beijing https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/12/rolfs-lanktips-9-december-2024.html Tillbaka till Rolfs länktips 18 mars 2025 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/03/rolfs-lanktips-18-mars-2025.html

  DI/TT 16 mars 2025 https://www.di.se/nyheter/kinas-grona-elboom-som-320-karnreaktorer/ China hit its target of 1,200 gigawatts (GW) of solar and wind power last year, six years ahead of schedule.  https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/03/has-wright-any-idea-what-world-looks.html Tillbaka till Rolfs länktips 18 mars 2025 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/03/rolfs-lanktips-18-mars-2025.html

Mikael Odenberg från hela projektet, i en tidigare okänd pro­memoria.  Kristersson hade bett den tidigare försvarsministern om en utvärdering. Svaret blev en sju sidor lång sågning av idén. ett ”hitte-på-organ”. ”Mycket vanskligt”, skrev Odenberg. Torbjörn Nilsson SvD 18 mars 2024 https://www.svd.se/a/XjB27g/henrik-landerholm-tillsattes-trots-kraftig-avradan Inte bra.

Investors can’t buy enough European defense stocks as postwar inhibitions become history. It’s about to happen: Germany brings radical new fiscal policy to a vote today. The bond market is OK with this, and the stock market is still excited. It’s an extraordinary moment, and all the more so because these radical changes are being voted on by a “lame duck” lower house, many of whose members will be replaced next week after losing seats in February’s election. How big a deal is this? TS Lombard’s Davide Oneglia suggests that it outstrips the spending booms that came with the postwar Marshall Plan and with German Reunification in the early 1990s John Authers 18 mars 2025    https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-03-18/everyone-loves-german-rearmament Jag håller just på med en bok om det svenska biståndet till u-länderna och råkade därvid på några uppgifter om Marshall-hjälpen. Omräknat till dagens priser och växelkurser uppgick Marshall-hjälpen till 382 miljarder svenska...

  EU-länder överväger 40 miljarder i militärt stöd till Ukraina – varnar för ryska villkor Tillbaka till Rolfs länktips 18 mars 2025 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/03/rolfs-lanktips-18-mars-2025.html

Men om vi säger nej till ett avtal med honom får vi alltså en handelskonflikt?  Ja, det är sannolikt att så blir fallet, och det gäller nog även om vi får till något slags avtal. De potentiella konfliktytorna mellan USA och EU är så många och stora att det knappast går att undvika.  Henrik Isakson Policyansvarig för handelspolitik, Svenskt Näringsliv Altinget 10 mars 2025 https://www.europaportalen.se/2025/03/riskera-inte-hela-ekonomin-i-handelskonflikten-med-trump Tillhör han den liberala eliten? Den liberala eliten slår tillbaka mot Trump https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/03/den-liberala-eliten-slar-tillbaka-mot.html Tillbaka till Rolfs länktips 18 mars 2025 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/03/rolfs-lanktips-18-mars-2025.html

 The city of Doncaster, South Yorkshire, is a long way from the gleaming skyscrapers of Boston, Massachusetts, but they are both places that the British stock picker Jeremy Grantham calls home. Grantham, 86, is one Britain’s most successful investors, having made his name on Wall Street in the 1960s at GMO, the Boston-based $63bn money manager, which still bears his name.  He represents the G. As an investor he predicted the dotcom bust and has been likened to “the skunk at the garden party” for his grumpy pessimism when the stock markets are riding. But ever since US markets cratered last week, Grantham has been transformed from a doomster into a Cassandra figure whose warnings should have been heeded. He claims to have studied 300 historical financial bubbles throughout history, including England’s canal building and railway construction busts during the Industrial Revolution,  and now his long-standing predictions that the AI bubble will pop appears to be bearing fruit...

  Trump Revolutionizes Political Communication https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/03/trump-revolutionizes-political.html Jeremy Grantham varnar för Crash https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/03/jeremy-grantham-varnar-for-crash.html Jag tycker i dag Överskottsmålet, tidigare heligt i bl a Sverige och Tyskland och EU,  är nu något som monteras ner i raketfart. Is this time really different?  Sanningen är väl att det har varit fel hela tiden Då borde väl alla de som i årtionden fört fel politik  nu anses förbrukade  och avskedas och det utan utan att bli landshövding  eller lyfta lön på någon elefantkyrkogård. Uppåt på Wall Street – trots fall i slutminuterna https://www.di.se/live/uppat-pa-wall-street-trots-fall-i-slutminuterna/ Svagt uppåt på börsen – nytt rekord för Saab https://www.di.se/live/svagt-uppat-pa-borsen-nytt-rekord-for-saab/ Det lönar sig att pendla till Stockholm från kranskommun - DN.se Den stora frågan är inte om Maria Malmer Stenergard...

  To an unprecedented extent, he and his cabinet are speaking directly to voters and bypassing traditional media. Mr. Trump chose senior officials who could sell the administration’s message to voters. Most have extensive on-air experience, and it shows.  They consider media appearances a vital part of their jobs, not a distraction.  T hey want to do interviews and do them live, whenever possible.  And they deliver their messages with enthusiasm and without apology. They are willing, indeed eager, to confront opponents head on. Mr. Trump provides the model. He answered more than 1,000 questions in his first month, seven times as many as his predecessor. Charles Lipson Wall Street Journal 16 March 2025  https://www.wsj.com/opinion/trump-is-giving-a-master-class-in-political-communication-media-speaking-messaging-5829e1d1 Mr Trump has appointed people to top posts who may lack management or other relevant experience but can fluently communicate via new and old for...

   Nu har kurserna för stora som små fastighetsbolag rasat med upp till cirka 30 procent på knappt en månad. Även mer stabila aktörer har dragits med.  Maria Gillholm, senior kreditchef vid Moody’s. – De räntesänkningar som var förväntade kanske inte är så självklara längre. Inflationen har visat sig högre än väntat och konjunkturen sämre. Räntesänkningarna är åtminstone försenade. Visserligen är obligationsmarknaden ”öppen” – det är inte längre samma svårigheter för fastighetsbolagen att refinansiera höga lån så som för ett par år sedan.  Men i stället pekar Maria Gillholm på en annan typ av risk: kontorsvakanser.  Johan Hellekant SvD 17 mars 2025 https://www.svd.se/a/wgLPqM/vantar-en-ny-kris-for-fastighetsbolagen-pa-borsen

Grekland gick i slutet av 2008 in i en långvarig ekonomisk kris.  Under de efterföljande fem åren sjönk landets BNP med ungefär en fjärdedel  DI 17 March 2025 https://www.di.se/live/grekland-slipper-skrapstatus-for-forsta-gangen-sedan-2010/

  Chris Wright, ex-fracker and now US energy secretary, vowing to end the “irrational quasi-religious policies on climate change”.   What about the other 7bn people? They want what we have,” he said. This is a revealing window into the mental world of Trumpism.  Has Wright any idea what the world looks like in 2025? Has he visited China lately? Does he think that most people in Asia, Latin America and the Middle East have no fridges, no lighting, no TVs, no heating and rags for clothes?   He should read ‘The New Joule Order, a report this week by the Carlyle Group, which argues that large parts of the world are about to decarbonise at breakneck speed for reasons that have nothing to do with net zero.  China is the world’s biggest importer of crude and LNG, and it is moving with alacrity to end this state of affairs. Most tankers pass through the Strait of Malacca, easily choked by US warships.  The “Malacca Dilemma” has guided Chinese strategic pl...

  It is difficult in China to discuss  the horrors of the Cultural Revolution openly.  The dark period from 1966 to 1976, when millions of people were persecuted, many of them to death, by fanatical gangs unleashed by Mao Zedong, is skated over in official histories.  Under Xi Jinping the subject is even more taboo. He describes reflection on Mao-era atrocities as “historical nihilism”—a threat, as he sees it, to the Communists’ grip on power. Yet in online discussion of American politics, censors provide leeway.  The Economist 13 March 2025 https://www.economist.com/china/2025/03/13/american-politics-prompt-some-chinese-to-explore-historical-taboos Copilot: Xi Jinping's personal history is deeply intertwined with China's political landscape. During the Cultural Revolution, his father, Xi Zhongxun, a prominent revolutionary leader, was purged and sent into internal exile.  This led to Xi Jinping being sent to a rural village in Shaanxi province for "re-educ...

  Stock futures fall as Treasury secretary Bessent dismisses market worries Corrections are healthy. They’re normal. “What’s not healthy is straight-up, that is, euphoric markets,”  “That’s how you get a financial crisis. It would have been healthier if someone had put the brakes on in ’06-’07. We wouldn’t have had the problems in ’08. What Carmen Reinhart, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, and Harvard’s Kenneth Rogoff call “the second great contraction” (the Great Depression of the 1930s being the first). https://www.internetional.se/hedgefunds.htm MarketWatch 16 March 2025 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/corrections-are-healthy-bessent-says-dismissing-market-worries-after-a-dismal-week-ddd866b3