Englund

The ECB cannot rescue France until its debt crisis is absolutely dire. When France joined the euro – or more accurately snookered Germany into giving up the Deutsche Mark, thinking it could subjugate the almighty Bundesbank by that means – it gave up its sovereign economic defences.  It no longer has a central bank at its command, acting as lender-of-last-resort in the national interest. Its debt is denominated in a currency that it does not control. It cannot print its own money, bail itself out or inflate away its debt burden unilaterally.  Nor can France devalue to boost exports and cushion the contractionary shock of the coming fiscal reckoning. The raging debate among insiders is over how long the European Central Bank (ECB) will wait before stepping in to rescue Paris and suppressing another festering eurozone crisis. “There can be absolutely no suspense on how this ends,” says Robin Brooks, the former chief economist at the Institute of International Finance and now at ...

Jacob Coxon, 27 The Anonymous Math Geek Who Quit Anthropic—and Became the Face of AI Safety King Charles Calls on Nvidia, OpenAI Chiefs to Control AI Britain’s monarch plans to ask some of the most critical figures in artificial intelligence for reassurances the technologists can keep their inventions under control. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/09/jacob-coxon-27-face-of-ai-safety.html   Stockholmsbörsen inleder uppåt på bred front, i linje med ledande Europabörser. Bland dragloken finns Ericsson och Saab, upp 1,7 respektive 1,2 procent.  Marknaden verkar ha skakat av sig det hökaktiga tonläget i räntebeskedet från USA:s centralbank i onsdags och i stället ha tagit fasta på att beskedet stärker tilltron till bankens inflationsmål. https://www.dn.se/direkt/2026-09-17/borsen-fortsatter-uppat-pa-bred-front/ Tydlig nedgång i oljepriset – börsuppgången tilltar Samtidigt blir stämningen på Stockholmsbörsen allt muntrare. DI 17 september 2026, 14:42 https://www.di.se/live/ty...

Om Ryssland anfaller ett baltiskt land eller Finland kommer Sverige omgående att hamna i krig.  Mycket pekar på att Ryssland snart kommer att göra åtminstone ett mindre anfall mot Baltikum, till exempel försöka ta Narva. Sverige har både mer långtgående försvarsavtal med sina grannar än Nato-avtalet,  och en tradition av att inte försöka dra sig ur fördrag utan tvärtom överimplementera. Edward Blom SvD 10 september 2026 https://kvartal.se/erikhogstrom/artiklar/darfor-tycker-nyhogern-likadant/cG9zdDoxODU5ODI NATO eller Nordic Battle Group vid Narva? Gränsen mellan EU och Ryssland går mitt igenom staden Narva. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2015/01/nato-eller-nordic-battle-group-vid-narva.html Nordic Battlegroup https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nordic_Battlegroup The Baltic Geopolitics Programme is designed to promote research and understanding regarding the geopolitics of the greater Baltic and the UK’s role in this diverse and geostrategically significant region. https://englu...

  Jean-Luc Melenchon France, Europe’s No. 2 economy, troubles are feeding voters’ populist turn.  Political risk linked to the decent chance of the hard-right Marine Le Pen becoming president.  Melenchon’s polling a close second to Le Pen shows French voters are very much tempted by the idea of bailing themselves out to avoid confronting the country’s profligate social spending and pension outlays. Nominal growth in gross domestic product falling off a cliff and bond yields climbing to their highest level since 2008. Central bankers mustn’t confuse the inflation seen in America’s AI-boom economy with that of France and Germany, where yearly growth is expected at below 1%. These will add to an already fearsome challenge for the ECB’s officials. Should they stick doggedly to their inflation-busting mandate, even if it nudges France ever closer to crisis and gives Melenchon’s brand of recklessness even broader support? Bloomberg 8 September 2026 https://www.bloomberg.com/opi...

The ECB may be fighting the last war, as European energy prices and electricity markets remain calm, and the bank's economists seem to be misjudging the outlook for energy costs, which could lead to a policy error. https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2026-06-11/ecb-rate-decision-the-ecb-is-jumping-at-old-inflation-shadows Markets fully expect the European Central Bank to raise interest rates this week, with a 97% probability of a quarter-point hike. Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berneberg, called the ECB’s likely decision to hike rates a “mistake in the making,” citing falling consumer confidence in the eurozone, a drop in services activity and a slowdown in bank lending to households.  Against this backdrop, he said, “a further headwind in the form of higher interest rates to exacerbate the Iran war damage” is the last thing the eurozone needs. MarketWatch 11 june 2026 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/markets-are-pricing-in-a-rate-hike-by-the-european-central-bank...

Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq set to climb  on hopes that deal to end Iran war is closer. Follow all the latest U.S. market action for Tuesday here. https://www.marketwatch.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-jones-s-p-500-nasdaq-us-oil-wti Börserna på Wall Street ser ut att gå mot en minusöppning på tisdagen. Investerare oroades över att amerikanska militära angrepp mot Iran riskerar att grumla utsikterna för ett fredsavtal. 26 maj 2026, 15:03 https://www.di.se/live/usa-borserna-vantas-oppna-nedat-bVnBb/ Chiprally ledde Wall Street till nya rekord   De amerikanska börserna steg till nya rekordnivåer på tisdagen. Micron Technology  1.000-miljarder  (dollar),  UBS tror att mer finns att hämta och skruvar upp riktkursen kraftigt. https://www.di.se/live/chiprally-ledde-wall-street-till-nya-rekord/ Efter sex raka uppgångsdagar vände börsen ned på tisdagen.  ”Momentumet är starkt på börsen just nu. Samtidigt är det kanske mer osäkert än någonsin med tanke...

Trump Says Iran’s Concessions Pave Way for Deal to End War President Donald Trump claimed Iran has made key concessions in negotiations with the US and that a deal to end the war could be announced “fairly soon.” Trump said it may be unnecessary to renew a two-week ceasefire with Iran before it expires next week, and that the two sides might meet for a second round of direct negotiations this weekend. Israel and Lebanon agreed to a 10-day ceasefire starting in the early hours of Friday, with Trump saying US officials would work with both sides to secure a lasting deal. His repeated predictions of a quick end to the war are nonetheless reinforcing optimism in global markets. Wall Street  closed at all-time highs April 17, 2026 at 9:04 AM GMT+2 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-17/trump-says-iran-s-concessions-pave-way-for-deal-to-end-war USA:s president Donald Trump säger att kriget i Iran ”bör vara över ganska snart” under en presskonferens i Las Vegas natten till fre...

Lagarde sade att hon har stor respekt för Villeroys ”personliga beslut” att lämna posten som Frankrikes centralbankschef efter 11 år av ”lojal och hängiven tjänst för både Frankrikes och Europas gemensamma bästa”. Villeroy tar nu över ordförandeskapet för Fondation des Apprentis d’Auteuil, där han kommer att använda sina talanger till förmån för utsatta ungdomar och familjer genom utbildningsprogram, sociala program och yrkesutbildningsprogram. https://www.di.se/live/frankrikes-centralbankschef-avgar-i-fortid/ France’s central bank chief François Villeroy de Galhau is stepping down early to run a charitable foundation,  allowing French President Emmanuel Macron to fill the key role by this summer and before the presidential election of 2027. Financial Times February 9, 2026  https://www.ft.com/content/f7207116-a485-431e-9a8a-163e2d92cde5

The euro briefly traded above $1.20 on Wednesday, the highest since 2021. That level has usually caused anguish for the bloc’s export-led economy. In a surprisingly frank admission in July, ECB Vice-President Luis de Guindos said it would be “complicated” if the euro exceeded $1.20. The fiscal cavalry is sadly still quite far away.  It’s frustrating for ECB policymakers and EU politicians that they’ve got inflation under control, but they cannot get growth going.  Adding to the sense of cosmic injustice, the US dollar is weakening despite its much stronger economy.  You can be sure Donald Trump will claim it’s the result of his own genius. Japan took action last Friday that caused the yen to rise in value by about 3%.  Bessent said Wednesday that the US is “absolutely not” intervening to sell the dollar against the yen. Marcus Ashworth Bloomberg January 29, 2026 https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2026-01-29/the-us-dollar-is-kicking-europe-while-it-s-down ...

  €726,000 (typ 8 mkr) in 2024, according to the FT’s calculations https://www.ft.com/content/c7cd22f0-efe5-40de-a448-fa9075926a6a

 relaterat till bankernas verksamheter i Baltikum. Det uppger källor för Bloomberg News. https://ww.di.se/live/uppgifter-brister-i-swedbanks-och-seb-s-riskmodeller/ The European Central Bank has identified significant deficiencies in risk models of top Swedish lenders SEB AB and Swedbank AB for their operations in Baltic countries, according to people familiar with the matter. Swedbank Riga The banks have committed to short- and longer-term measures to address the issues, said the people, who asked to remain anonymous as the interactions were private. Both lenders have previously said that they are working on updating their wider risk models, which are used to determine banks’ capital requirements. Officials for SEB and Swedbank declined to comment beyond those disclosures. An ECB spokesman declined to comment. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-16/swedish-banks-forced-to-review-risk-models-after-ecb-probe Högsta domstolen tar upp målet mot Swedbanks tidigare vd Birgit...

France’s president has created a constitutional crisis and cannot sustain his dying centrist project The ECB lacks the legal power to mop up French bonds until the crisis spins further out of control, either causing eurozone contagion or posing a systemic threat to monetary union. “The ECB is in a bind. It can’t just bail out France,” said Thomas Mayer, a former chief economist of Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank. Frankfurt may use its rescue tool (TPI) only to buy the debt of countries that pursue “sound fiscal and macroeconomic policies” and where the “trajectory of public debt is sustainable”, among other conditions. “None of that applies to France,” said Mayer. Ambrose Evans-Pritchard Telegraph 7 October 2025 https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/10/07/emmanuel-macron-disaster-cause-european-integration/ Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel, who is in charge of market operations at the ECB, said in a speech about fiscal and monetary policy in early June — before the EU electio...

¨ Det ser ut att vara lättförtjänta pengar för Riksbankens direktion. – Det är inte så att Riksbanken slaviskt följer ECB vid varje beslut, men de kan i praktiken inte avvika med flera procentenheter, säger Harry Flam.   – Saken är den att internationella kapitalrörelser har vuxit i omfattning de senaste 20 åren och det är de som bestämmer växelkursen   Ivana Vujic SvD 11 september 2025 https://www.svd.se/a/xmaMj8/vagar-riksbanken-gasa-nar-ecb-pausar  "Independence does not mean that you don't answer the phone"  "Independence means the right to say no."  Willem Buiter https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2015/01/willem-buiter-helicopter-money-and.html If Germany were suddenly to say “nein” to PSPP one or more eurozone countries could be forced to crash out of the monetary union. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2020/05/if-germany-were-suddenly-to-say-nein-to.html Target 2 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2017/08/target-2.html Mer här: Italy’s debts to European Ce...

  Novo’s vast output has helped drive Denmark’s large surplus and bolstered the krone.  That has made it necessary for the Danish central bank to maintain a lower interest rate than the European Central Bank’s to defend the currency peg.  Soren Kristensen, chief economist at Sydbank, cautioned against reading too deeply into Novo’s dip.  Should exports take a major hit, however, Kristensen said that Denmark might need to reverse course and raise its rates. Bloomberg 3 augusti 2025 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-03/novo-nordisk-s-troubles-weigh-heavily-on-denmark-s-economy

  ECB will probably keep the interest rate unchanged at 2%, pushing off a response to Trump’s threatened tariffs of 30% until they materialize and their impact can be better assessed.   https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-19/ecb-won-t-flinch-yet-in-the-shadow-of-trump-s-trade-war

ECB’s Newest Rate-Setter Has Seen the World Order Collapse Before The 69-year-old head of Bulgaria’s central bank was a Finance Ministry official in the 1980s when the Communist government abruptly closed it.  fter witnessing the regime’s eventual collapse and the ministry’s reinstatement, he helped his country emerge from a bout of hyperinflation before joining the push to make it the euro area’s 21st member. After hyperinflation abated in the 1990s, the country pegged its currency, the lev, first to the Deutsche mark and then to the euro — effectively surrendering control over its monetary policy “Politics is often seen as a source of stability,” Radev said. “In reality, it is increasingly a source of volatility, uncertainty and systemic risk. This is something central banks must factor into their assessments. ” Joining the bloc also required a cleanup of Bulgaria’s financial sector, where murky ties between politicians and businesses triggered a banking crisis just over a decade...

 My blogg short index https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/07/my-blogg-short-index.html ”EU-ledarna uppmanade Rådet, kommissionen och Europeiska centralbanken, inom ramen för eurogruppen, att fortsätta arbetet med att förstärka eurons internationella roll, både som reserv- och transaktionsvaluta”, hette det i kommunikén från EU-toppmötet 26 juni. https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2025/774658/EPRS_BRI(2025)774658_EN.pdf Om EU-ledarna är överens om att eurons roll bör bli större är det svårare att enas om hur det ska gå till. Kanske hetast är frågan om gemensam upplåning.  Det är svårt för en politiker att sälja in hos det egna landets väljare att de ska står risken för hur andra länder hanterar sina statsfinanser. I samband med pandemin tog unionen upp EU-gemensamma lån till ett värde av ungefär 540 miljarder euro, motsvarande cirka 6.000 miljarder kronor, sedan finanskrisen finns obligationer för 270 miljarder euro utgivna av stödfonden ESM och den europeisk...

The single currency is up about 14% against the dollar this year as confidence in the US dwindles  The danger, however, is that the rally propels the euro to levels damaging competitiveness. The topic has featured prominently at the ECB’s annual retreat in Sintra, Portugal.  Vice President Luis de Guindos warned that an advance past $1.20 would be problematic. The currency has averaged at $1.1829 since it was introduced in 1999, and traded just below that level on Tuesday. Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel used that argument to play down any concerns. Bloomberg 1 July 2025 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-01/ecb-wonders-whether-euro-rally-will-turn-from-blessing-to-curse If experience over the last decade holds true, a too-strong euro is the last thing the euro area needs.  Former European Central Bank President Mario Draghi always tried to avoid mentioning currency strength but was forced to address it in 2014,  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/article...