Black Swans Over France and Bitcoin chart
Centrist and left-wing tactical alliances designed to thwart Marine Le Pen’s National Rally from taking a majority of seats, thus producing an unworkable parliament divided into three roughly equal blocs — Le Pen and Macron’s groups, plus an ungainly left-wing coalition.
Le Pen is now aiming to show that she holds the power in this situation
It’s possible that Le Pen is bluffing
The Franco-German axis remains at the heart of the EU. It looks unlikely to set a budget within the agreed euro-zone parameters, and so the issue casts doubt on the currency area’s viability
ECB might buy French bonds to help, but Barclays argues that it’s unlikely to do so because of requirements that French public debt be on a sustainable path. It could, however, act to rein in any contagion to other countries’ bonds.
John Authers Bloomberg 2 December 2024
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