Rolfs länktips 17 december 2024

december 17, 2024

This Market Has Me Scared

When investors are wildly optimistic, it is much harder for the market to rise—everyone’s already got a lot of stocks—and much easier for it to fall on any hint that they might be wrong.

I don’t know what the trigger might be, but it doesn’t need to be much.

Other signs of optimism. Investment newsletter writers have rarely been more bullish or less bearish

Some of the best-known bears have given up.

David Rosenberg of Rosenberg Research didn’t actually say the fateful words “this time is different” but he did write that “traditional valuations, at the least, are not that helpful right now.”

This time will be different.

Rosenberg thinks investors have shifted away from the standard metric of price against one-year forward earnings to look further out because of the prospects for an AI-driven productivity boom.

None of these points are proof that the market must fall, let alone that it will happen soon.

But I don’t want to be part of a crowd buying into a narrow story when prices, valuations and hope are already extremely high, and insiders aren’t willing to back it with their money.

This feels like a good time to take some money off the table.

James Mackintosh Wall Street Journal 17 December 2024

https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/why-this-frothy-market-has-me-scared-295c07c3

Strategerna räknar med den bästa av börsvärldar nästa år

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/12/strategerna-raknar-med-den-basta-av.html

Europas bilkris är den perfekta stormen eftersom många faktorer samspelar

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/12/europas-bilkris-ar-den-perfekta-stormen.html

Prospect of 6% Treasury Yields

according to T. Rowe Price

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/12/prospect-of-6-treasury-yields-according.html

Röd stängning i USA –

längsta nedgångssviten på 40 år

https://www.di.se/live/rod-stangning-i-usa-langsta-nedgangssviten-pa-40-ar/

Dow’s drop over the past nine days can be chalked up to one stock.

Dow fell on Tuesday for a ninth straight day, tallying its longest losing streak since 1978.

This sudden shift might come as a shock to some investors.

For the 12th day in a row on Tuesday, the number of S&P 500 stocks declining surpassed the number of gainers. That is the longest streak on record going back to at least the end of 1999

Dow’s drop over the past nine days can be chalked up to one stock.

UnitedHealth

It contributed about 750 points to the Dow’s 1,564-point drop since the losing streak began.

Joseph Adinolfi MarketWatch 17 December 2024 

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/whats-behind-the-dows-current-losing-streak-and-should-investors-be-worried-d51cc0f4