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  Bondpocalypse? What’s going to break and when will it happen?  US stocks have been moving sideways, with the main S&P 500 benchmark only 1.5% below its August record.  It’s still up 12.2% for the year, despite the drastic tightening of the bond market.  As for the mainstream credit market, there is no sign of additional pressure. The turn of the month will bring the usual welter of data, with personal consumption expenditures, ISM purchasing manager indexes and US non-farm payrolls all due by the end of this week.  If bonds’ slide is to be arrested any time soon, it will probably because something in these numbers disappoints. John Authers Bloomberg September 29, 2026 https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/newsletters/2026-09-29/what-s-going-to-break-in-the-bondpocalypse Spansk inflation lyfter oväntat mycket Enligt det EU-harmoniserade måttet steg inflationen till 5,0 procent.  På onsdag kommer motsvarande siffror från Frankrike, Italien och Tyskland och ...

The driver of Spain's growth is population growth via immigrant labor, with about 80% of Spanish job growth since 2022 down to the increase in foreign-born hires, with measures such as mass regularization granting residency permits to more than 1 million undocumented arrivals. RE: De flesta kommer från Latinamerika och behöver inte gå på kursen Spanska för invandrare. The other boon is tourism, which accounts for almost 13% of the economy Spain’s population has jumped to almost 50 million from 36 million a half century ago. This means more workers, more spending and more tax receipts. Spanish GDP has grown less impressively on a per-capita basis than in aggregate, enough to overtake Japan’s but still firmly behind Korea’s. On a per-hour-worked basis, there’s a persistent gap with Germany, the Netherlands and the Nordic countries. Lionel Laurent Bloomberg 6 July 2026 https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2026-07-06/how-spain-outgrew-south-korea

EU delays trade confrontation with China; “global macroeconomic imbalances” Leaders opt for dialogue with Beijing rather than immediate action over fears of retaliation. The EU has delayed a trade confrontation with China at a summit that exposed divisions within the bloc over how to deal with cheap imports from Beijing that have eroded European industrial output and cost hundreds of thousands of jobs. Despite combative rhetoric in the lead-up to the Brussels meeting, the 27 leaders opted for dialogue rather than immediate action to deal with what they called “global macroeconomic imbalances”.  Demanded the EU “stop naivety towards the long-term ambitions of China”.  Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez told reporters when arriving at the summit that China is a “potential ally”. Financial Times 19 June 2026 https://www.ft.com/content/e220372c-b20e-418e-9f02-29a5aa269702?syn-25a6b1a6=1

  Spain’s unemployment rate converge with Finland’s The Finnish government has introduced reforms to bring more flexibility to the labour market, for example by making it easier for employers to dismiss workers Many of Spain’s new arrivals have come from Latin America, so they speak the same language, helping them to secure jobs, especially in tourism and hospitality. It’s important not to overstate Spain’s success. At about 10 per cent, unemployment is still double the OECD average, and many of Spain’s jobs remain fairly low-pay and low-productivity.  Financial Times 2 June 2026 https://www.ft.com/content/eec2ec91-6e1f-4b6e-b59d-d5718a82a5be?syn-25a6b1a6=1 Sviten fortsatte på Wall Street: ”Tech dominerar” Den AI-haussade halvledarsektorn hjälpte S&P 500 stiga för den nionde dagen i rad. Samtidigt behåller marknaden en optimistisk syn på fredsförhandlingarna mellan USA och Iran. https://www.di.se/live/sviten-fortsatte-pa-wall-street-tech-dominerar/ Stockholmsbörsen avsluta...

In rich and established democracies, what people want from life goes up until no conceivable government can provide it.  Notice that one of the few major western countries to have a popular leader right now is Spain. It is a place with recent memories of dictatorship.   Low expectations, born of a low starting point, is most of the trick to happiness.  Sir Keir Starmer. No UK leader has collapsed from landslide-winner to national joke with such speed.  The trouble is that, if I am right, almost nothing can be done.  Britain cannot choose to have a Franco in its recent past to make it grateful for a well-meaning plodder /someone who works slowly and continuously, but without imagination, enthusiasm, or interest/   like Starmer. Janan Ganesh Financial Times 9 May 2026 https://www.ft.com/content/14152ab1-864d-4ff7-8524-afc7b08821b3?syn-25a6b1a6=1

RE: Man vågar inte tänka på vad som skulle hända om fredsprocessen havererar. 2026/04/17 Paul Krugman: The futures markets are closed for the weekend. So let’s see what happens when they reopen Sunday night. 2026/04/18 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/04/18-april-iran-hormuz-sundet-stangs-igen.html On Sunday, Trump said negotiators would arrive in Islamabad on Monday.   But Tasnim News Agency, which is closely linked to Iran’s military and security services, reported that Iran has no intention of sending its negotiators due to the US navy’s continuing blockade of Iranian ports. Financial Times 19 April 2026 17:11 https://www.ft.com/content/0e51cdea-99df-4913-8c71-03396c4a6faf?syn-25a6b1a6=1 Iranian gunboats fire on tanker https://edition.cnn.com/2026/04/18/world/video/us-iran-talks-pakistan-hormuz-robertson-latam-intl Can Trump finally make a nuclear deal with Iran? After going to war twice, the US president is again trying to strike a deal on the regime’s uranium enric...

Its troubles started with the 2008 financial crisis, which saddled the banking system with some €200 billion ($240 billion) in bad loans at its peak. As lenders collapsed and unpaid debt was transferred from one institution to another, money for new construction dried up. That collided with Spain becoming the euro zone’s fastest-growing major economy since 2022 and migration steadily increasing the population. The Covid pandemic stalled a reckoning as the government forbid evictions of vulnerable residents.  Known as the “social shield,” the measure was initially valid for 12 months, but as the problem intensified, Spain’s Socialist-led minority government managed to extend it every year since. Critics say that by forbidding evictions of vulnerable tenants while not doing enough to ease housing shortages, the measure has created incentives for strapped tenants to stop paying. Gemma López is one of these strapped owners. In 2022, the 44-year-old started renting out her parents’ apar...

Sänkt spansk prognos för turismintäkter efter trög sommar Antalet internationella turister kan komma att understiga de 100 miljoner som World Travel and Tourism Council prognostiserade tidigare i år. Förra året registrerade Spanien ett rekordantal på 94 miljoner turister. DI 7 oktober 2025 https://www.di.se/nyheter/sankt-spansk-prognos-for-turismintakter-efter-trog-sommar/ Must We Really Travel Like This? https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/search/label/IATA

  say they are pressing to swiftly resolve disputes over the FCAS fighter jet program and move into the next development phase this fall. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz on Wednesday announced a delay in deciding whether to continue the project, pointing to French company Dassault Aviation, which has sought to expand its role alongside partners Airbus and Indra Sistemas. The sixth-generation fighter is slated to become operational around 2040; the rival Global Combat Air Programme led by the UK, Italy and Japan, which involves BAE Systems, Leonardo and Mitsubishi, is aiming for a flying prototype in 2030. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-28/germany-spain-urge-breakthrough-in-stalled-fighter-jet-program Global Combat Air Programme https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/12/ett-nytt-stridsflyg-som-ska-ersatta.html

Tysklands ekonomi avstannat, tillväxt i Portugal, Italien, Grekland och Spanien Greece had the worst economic slump in a developed country since the Depression.  Now, some 15 years later, for Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain — labelled the ‘PIIGS’ by some analysts in the past — the tables have turned. Germany had no increase in economic activity at all over the past four years, and the Bundesbank has warned that this stagnation may drag on well into 2025 Tourism was boosted by pent-up demand for travel and higher savings during the pandemic. In Spain and in Greece, tourist arrivals are up at double-digit rates  “A 30 per cent disadvantage in unit labour costs that existed over the first decade of the currency union has been offset,” The newfound economic fortunes of Europe’s debt crisis countries can in part be traced a €800bn debt-funded investment programme launched during the pandemic. The so-called NextGenerationEU Portugal, Italy, Spain and Greece are the main r...

 — the countries at the centre of the 2010 to 2015 Eurozone crisis. This story of success in Greece defies all the doomsayers and hotheads of 2015, when the country briefly flirted with leaving the euro under its populist-left Syriza government.  The lesson to learn from the crisis over a decade ago is the value of solidarity across Europe, enabling sovereign debts to be put on a sustainable basis with support from more financially secure countries.  Conditionality attached to this support was vital, despite its political difficulty. Kicking the can down the road, as happened often from 2010 to 2015, was also necessary to foster difficult compromises. Chris Giles Financial Times 11 December 2024 https://www.ft.com/content/9ae38922-bb81-459f-83f9-2eaa4cb38fcf

  Stellantis showcased its electric Opel Rocks-e car at the Essen Motor Show  in Germany this month © AFP via Getty Images Deal for Spanish plant comes despite EU efforts to reduce reliance on Chinese technology The factory in Zaragoza, northeastern Spain, is scheduled to start production by late 2026 under a 50-50 joint venture between the world’s biggest battery maker and the fourth-largest carmaker, owner of the Peugeot, Jeep and Fiat brands. CATL, headquartered in Ningde, eastern China, had a global market share of about 38 per cent in the first half It is already operating plants in Germany and Hungary. Financial Times 10 December 2024 https://www.ft.com/content/b2c41a7d-02fa-4846-ab50-dd27e534dcf5 Tillbaka till Rolfs länktips 11 december 2024 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/12/rolfs-lanktips-11-december-2024.html

  A resurgent tourism industry is just one of a number of engines driving Spain’s impressive growth Once a laggard, the Southern European country, which was hammered during the eurozone crisis, has now become a leader. The figures underline a remarkable reversal in economic fortunes for Spain, as well as other Southern European nations such as Greece and Portugal. Spain welcomed 21.8m visitors over the summer, with so many people arriving that in parts it sparked anger from disgruntled locals. Unemployment has fallen to its lowest level since the financial crisis and Spain’s borrowing costs are now lower than that of France. Debt relative to GDP has fallen from 120.3pc in 2020 to 107.7pc last year One reason for the strong headline figures is that Spain has successfully bounced back after its economy was rocked more than most by Covid Telegraph 6 November 2024 https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/11/06/how-spain-beat-g7-become-fastest-growing-advanced-economy/ Tillbaka till Ro...

Inflationen i euroområdet steg mer än väntat i maj Den av ECB fruktade tjänsteinflationen var en av orsakerna.   Den svenska kronan fortsatte att stärkas. DI 31 maj 2024, 11:51 https://www.di.se/nyheter/fruktad-siffra-bakom-okningen/ Consumer prices rose annual 2.6% in May A measure stripping out volatile components like food and energy also surpassed expectations by quickening to 2.9%. Borrowing costs are still set to be lowered next week Bloomberg 31 maj 2024 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-31/euro-zone-inflation-picks-up-more-than-expected-before-ecb-cut French Inflation  2.7% from year ago in May  Price growth also picked up in Germany and Spain this month Bloomberg 31 maj 2024 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-31/french-inflation-accelerates-for-first-time-this-year-on-energy SEB:s seniorekonom Robert Bergqvist är inte orolig   ”Det skulle nästan vara ansvarslöst av ECB att gå vidare med ytterligare en sänkning i juli”, sä...

Remember the “PIGS,” short for Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain?  Four of the top-10 performers in the Stoxx Europe 600 index over the past year are Italian and Spanish banks: Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena, Banco de Sabadell, Banca Popolare di Sondrio and UniCredit.  In Greece and Italy, yields on 10-year government bonds have gone from trading roughly 2 percentage points above Germany’s to around 1 percentage point. This is an impressive turnaround for nations that many investors saw as irredeemable basketcases following the eurozone crisis of 2011 and 2012. in Europe, though, fiscal austerity is back. The European Parliament last month approved a new set of fiscal rules designed by the 27 EU states.  They will allow for more bespoke adjustment plans, but nevertheless force national governments to return to an arbitrary “structural” deficit below 1.5% and a debt-to-GDP ratio below 60%.  This is a self-inflicted wound as the bloc tries to catch up with American an...

 The Economist 6 Ferbruary 2024  https://www.economist.com/europe/2024/02/06/madrid-is-booming-growing-while-keeping-its-cool-will-be-the-tricky-part

  Den senaste tidens  nyheter om extrem torka  i det spanska medelhavsområdet, framför allt i Katalonien, avskräcker onekligen. ”Det här området kommer att överges, om tio år kommer ingen vilja jobba här”, säger en jordbrukare.  Jag kommer att tänka på författaren Maja Lundes obehagliga, dystopiska roman ”Blå”, där sydeuropéer flyr norrut, mot ”vattenländerna”. Lisa Irenius SvD 28 maj 2023 Förlorarna finns på Solkusten och Rivieran | Lisa Irenius | SvD

 How Spain is coping with the heat https://www.dw.com/en/spain-coping-with-the-heat/a-62826918 På sina resor han förnam, hur väl försynens nåd reglerat,  som floder överallt placerat där stora städer stryka fram. - Falstaff, fakir skrifter av Axel Wallengren. From the Rhine to the Tigris Global warming disturbs the jet and gulf streams that used to reliably circulate our atmosphere and oceans. Lake Mead — where the Hoover Dam blocks whatever remains of the Colorado River — is drying into a puddle and displaying everything from sunken boats to dead bodies. As these rivers, from the Yangtze to the Colorado, slowly evaporate — their water molecules destined to inundate islets or coastlines elsewhere in the world — the emphasis among scientists and policymakers is shifting to “adaptation.”  We’ll certainly need a lot of that.  Andreas Kluth Bloomberg 17 augusti 2022 https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-08-17/rhine-tigris-river-water-levels-are-grave-climate-ch...

 From South Asia to the US, from Africa to Europe, intense heat is pushing the human body beyond the bounds of physiological tolerance. Scenarios where wet-bulb heatwaves could cause mass deaths were a subject for careful, peer-reviewed long-range climate forecasts, or for science fiction (the 2020 novel The Ministry for the Future, by Kim Stanley Robinson, begins with such a disaster killing about 20 million in India in a week). https://www.bokus.com/bok/9780356508856/ministry-for-the-future/ Far from being a possible outcome of a future climate-wracked world, humid heat above 35C was already happening — from the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea to Pakistan, India, Australia, Venezuela, and each coast of Mexico.  Temperatures above Haldane’s 31C threshold were turning up in dozens of places across tropical South and Southeast Asia, China, West Africa, southern Europe and the Americas, extending to the suburbs of New York and Naples, Italy. Air conditioners reduce indoor temperatu...

Euro-zone inflation the gap between the highest and lowest rates among the currency bloc’s 19 members jumped to its widest ever The scale ranges from Malta -- where consumer prices advanced 5.6% last month, to Estonia -- where inflation hit 20.1%. That’s a difference of more than 14 percentage points, more than at any time since the dawn of the euro in 1999. Bloomberg 2 June 2022 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-02/euro-zone-inflation-is-diverging-by-an-unprecedented-amount Som vanligt bekymmer med Portugal, Spanien och Grekland Stefan de Vylder den förste i världen som kommit på ett avgörande, inbyggt och ofrånkomligt fel med valutaunioner typ EMU Om det skrev han i en lysande artikel i Göteborgs-Posten 2002-10-22. Han hade nämligen kommit på följande enkla (i efterhand) sak: "Det faktum att den nominella räntan är gemensam i en valutaunion innebär automatiskt att realräntan blir lägst i de länder som har den högsta inflationen, det vill säga de som skulle behöva e...