11 oktober. Frankrike. Grekland. Houthis. Bank run. S&P 500 doubling in just four years. Hela uppgången kan förklaras av 32 aktier.
Den 6 oktober stängde S&P 500 för första gången på över 7.800 punkter, upp drygt 14 procent sedan årsskiftet. Den som bara ser den siffran kan tro att den amerikanska ekonomin mår utmärkt.
Conference Boards mått på konsumenternas förtroende föll under september till den lägsta nivån sedan 2014. Kriget mellan USA och Iran har drivit upp energipriserna, inflationen ligger på 3,4 procent och Fed höjde i september styrräntan för första gången sedan 2023.
Den 10-åriga statsobligationsräntan har stigit till den högsta nivån sedan 2002 och bolåneräntan till över 7 procent.
De återstående omkring 470 bolagen har sammantaget inte bidragit med någonting.
Robert Andersson DI 12 oktober 2026
https://www.di.se/analys/da-rasar-allt-32-aktier-bar-upp-wall-street/
U.S. stocks have spent four years charging higher on the promise of technology and artificial intelligence. Now, they need to prove they are worth more than a 5% return on one of the world’s safest assets.
The S&P 500 has climbed 118% since its bear-market closing low on Oct. 12, 2022, doubling in just four years.
Isabel Wang MarketWatch 11 October 2026
Hundreds of thousands of young French people taking part in nationwide protests, violence flaring and bonds suffering a market rout. On Friday, the risk premium on French 10-year debt over Italy’s hit a record.
With no clear idea of the way out, speculation is swirling about where this all ends, evoking the specter of contagion — a term synonymous with the Greek debt crisis that almost ripped the euro area apart 15 years ago.
Bloomberg 11 October 2026
“We’re not talking about Greece. We’re talking about a big country that’s got a huge amount of debt. So it means that the ECB is going to have to come in pretty big. And they’re going to have to do it with the Germans kicking and screaming,” Lachman says.
Enligt Paul Krugman kan Frankrike ha korsat en gräns där det skulle bli för dyrt för Europeiska Centralbanken att rädda det.
”Frankrike kan ha korsat gränsen från att vara ’too big to fail’ till ’too big to save’.
https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/10/le-pens-newfound-appetite-for-balancing.html
France Doesn’t Have a Plan to Calm Things Down
The teenagers marching through Paris mostly don’t know what bond markets are.
They do know that their government hasn’t acted on their complaints, and they fear that talk of future cuts means that they must force their elders to act.
Bloomberg 11 October 2026
Second Houthi strike on Riyadh airport
The Houthis in Yemen said they were behind the attacks and warned airlines and passengers against using Saudi Arabian airports and airspace.
The group said they had targeted the airport with a mix of ballistic and cruise missiles, as well as drones in the past 24 hours.
BBC 12 October 2026
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cr93znyk44e1o
Houthis
https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/10/houthis.html
When big banks are in trouble, they can quickly require a massive injection of funds to cover demands by depositors to withdraw their money and creditors wanting to be repaid.
Most countries unprepared for bank failures, watchdog warns.
Financial Stability Board says only US, UK, Japan and Hong Kong have a ‘credible public sector backstop’ to keep troubled lenders afloat before a sale or wind-down.
Financial Times 9 October 2026
https://www.ft.com/content/ca31d01f-d5a0-4bd4-bcc2-4aaa68f4ca22?syn-25a6b1a6=1
The Financial Stability Board, an international body of global regulators, delved into the issues that brought about the collapse of Credit Suisse, the failure of SVB, Signature and First Republic, and the liquidation of Silvergate.
https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/10/banks-prone-to-runs-that-brought-down.html
Lord Mervyn King, former governor of the Bank of England. His book is called The End of Alchemy.
The alchemy is “the belief that money kept in banks can be taken out whenever depositors ask for it”, Wolf
'Time for Ukraine to get new president,' says Trump
Trump told reporters outside the White House on Saturday that Zelensky "wants to make problems for the world" by continuing to authorise attacks on Russian refineries.
"He'd better damn well stop," Trump said, before suggesting Ukraine should "get a new leader who can make a deal".
Since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022 the country has been under martial law, meaning elections are suspended.
BBC 11 October 2026
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cqe8r5l7n92jo
Hyrorna speglar inte alltid läge, kvalitet och efterfrågan på ett sätt som ger tillräckliga incitament att bygga och utveckla bostäder.
Anna Waxin, vd, Fastighetsägarna Stockholm DI 12 oktober 2026
https://www.di.se/debatt/lat-oss-bygga-sa-stockholm-kan-vaxa/
Personer
https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/search/label/Personer
https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/10/henrik-landerholm-henrike-herz-och.html
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