My concern is that this time could be more like 1973-1974
The risk is a series of bear-market rallies that don’t last, hurting dip buyers and further damaging investor confidence
That confidence is already weak.
In March 2020 that was enough, because central bankers and politicians were frightened, too. When they stepped in (Senate Approves Roughly $2 Trillion in Coronavirus Relief) it helped investors see that, with government support, companies could make it through.
This time central bankers are scared not by falling markets or the economic outlook, but by inflation.
My concern is that this time could be more like 1973-1974.
1974 the Fed kept raising rates even as a recession took hold because it was running to catch up with inflation. The result was a horrible bear market interspersed with soul-destroying temporary rallies, two of 10%, two of 8% and two of 7%, each snuffed out.
It took 20 months before the low was reached
If inflation comes down, the Fed won’t need to raise rates as much as it has indicated
In really simple terms, though, after stocks more than doubled in two years, a market fall of more than 20% seems entirely plausible.
James Mackintosh WSJ 22 May 2022
https://www.wsj.com/articles/conditions-are-ripe-for-a-deep-bear-market-11653166864
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