“Are we headed for stagflation?”

 It depends on their definition of the term.

If it to mean a period of rising unemployment combined with inflation that’s still too high, the answer is that there’s a very good chance that we’ll suffer from that malady for at least a few months. 

But if they’re referring to something like the extreme pain we suffered to close out the 1970s, it looks unlikely.

1979 to ’80 The Federal Reserve, under Paul Volcker, responded with drastically tighter monetary policy, leading to a recession and a sharp rise in unemployment

Now look at the period from 2007 to the fall of 2008, just before the demise of Lehman Brothers. 

 While there was a severe recession — still generally known as the Great Recession — it had nothing to do with squeezing inflation out of the economy and everything to do with the fallout from a severe financial crisis.

In short, inflation doesn’t seem to be entrenched; 2022 isn’t 1980.

We’re probably headed for a period of weakening labor markets while inflation is still elevated, and many commentators will surely proclaim that we’re experiencing stagflation.

When people hear “stagflation,” most think of the late 1970s and early ’80s — but there’s no evidence that we’re facing anything comparable now.

Paul Krugman NYT 20 May 2022

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/20/opinion/stagflation-inflation-economy.html

Stagflation Is Sexy. It May Also Be Unlikely

Stagflation fears may be overdone.

Inflation targeting is the wrong policy for central banks.

Mark Gilbert Bloomberg 20 maj 2022

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-05-20/stagflation-is-sexy-it-may-also-be-unlikely