Big falls, not only in the price but also in the valuation
One example: Microsoft has dropped from 34 times estimated 12-month forward earnings to 24 times since the start of the year—even as predicted earnings have risen.
Something similar has happened to the S&P 500 as a whole, where the forward price-to-earnings ratio is down from 22 to 18, while Wall Street has lifted its forecasts for earnings.
James Mackintosh WSJ 18 May 2022
https://www.wsj.com/articles/recession-looms-but-markets-havent-got-the-message-11652866209
Det genomsnittliga p/e-talet är 27, mätt på nästkommande års vinst.
Allt över 20 brukar anses som mycket högt.
SvD 11 juni 2021
https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2021/06/det-finns-risk-for-bakslag-sager-maria.html
The cyclically adjusted p/e (CAPE), a measure created by economist Robert Shiller, “now stands over 27
has been exceeded only in the 1929 mania, the 2000 tech mania, and the 2007 housing and stock bubble,”
MarketWatch 20 December 2016
https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2016/12/the-cyclically-adjusted-pe-cape-measure.html
Kommentarer