Wall Street’s Top Stars Got Blindsided by 2022 Market Collapse
Kolanovic, JPMorgan Chase's co-head of global research, predicted a broad rally. He and his team pinned the S&P 500 Index at 5,050 by the end of 2022.
Stoltzfus, the chief investment strategist at Oppenheimer, was even bolder: 5,330.
They were off by more than 1,000 points.
With few exceptions, the best and brightest in stock and bond markets failed to appreciate how the inflation outbreak would upend the investing world in 2022.
They failed to anticipate how the Fed would react — the rate increases came at a torrid, not measured, pace — and failed to foresee how that, in turn, would trigger the worst simultaneous rout in stocks and bonds since at least the 1970s.
There are 865 actively managed stock mutual funds domiciled in the US with at least $1 billion in assets. On average, they lost 19% in 2022.
Bloomberg 29 December 2022
Much better off going with the herd
Some value managers lost their jobs — perhaps most famously Tony Dye, who refused to hold US equities in 1999 because they were so overvalued.
He was fired from his job heading Phillips & Drew Fund Management in early March 2000, just as he was about to be proved right.
Asset managers are generally paid a percentage of their assets under management, rather than for their performance, so they’d have been much better off going with the herd.
John Authers Bloomberg 27 oktober 2022
NOBODY KNOWS ANYTHING
They don’t want to be what investor Mark Kritzman calls “wrong and alone.”
https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2022/10/much-better-off-going-with-herd.html
Den svenska fondbranschen lever gott på att förvalta drygt 6.000 miljarder kronor åt svenska hushåll och företag.
Hans Bolander DI 17 september 2022
https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2022/09/sparekonomer-fondsaljare-hall-ut-borsen.html
During the wildest year for global markets since 2008, individual investors have been doubling down on stocks.
U.S. equity mutual and exchange-traded funds, which are popular among individual investors, have attracted more than $100 billion in net inflows this year, one of the highest amounts on record in EPFR data going back to 2000.
WSJ 18 December 2022
Kommentarer