How do we not have a recession?

Fed now faces a trilemma: how to reduce inflation, protect growth and jobs, and ensure financial stability. There is no easy way to do all three, especially with inflation so high.

No one should be confident the Fed can juggle those three balls without dropping at least one.

it is almost impossible to avoid a recession when the cost of credit goes higher. Just as we need food to live, the US economy for the past 20+ years has needed cheap capital to grow and without a large pool of savings, that was ever more so. 

Now that savings is depleting and interest rates go higher, how do we not have a recession?

John Mauldin 2 December 2022

https://www.mauldineconomics.com/frontlinethoughts/the-economy-is-a-changin