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When it comes to the big turning points, the IMF almost invariably fails to see them and therefore gets it disastrously wrong.

 This is what the WEO says about the outlook for inflation: “We project, amid high uncertainty, that headline inflation will likely return to pre-pandemic levels by mid-2022 for the group of advanced economies and emerging and developing economies.” 

That’s certainly what policymakers are hoping for. But for many countries, including our own, it’s looking increasingly at odds with the evidence.

Jeremy Warner Telegraph 13 October 2021


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