Varför ligger oljepriset på 100 dollar om Trump vinner striden vid Hormuzsundet?

Jag vet inte vem som kommer att vinna kriget mellan USA och Iran. Men om man frågar mig vem som har övertaget i striden om Hormuzsundet, är det tydligt att USA:s president Donald Trump ligger bäst till.


Trots att Teheran hävdar motsatsen är sundet i praktiken helt öppet. Exporten av råolja från USA:s allierade i regionen – via såväl sundet som alternativa rutter – har stigit till omkring 80 procent av nivåerna före konflikten.

Samtidigt har Irans egen oljeexport rasat till noll.

Iran står nu inför två val: antingen mjukar landet upp sin förhandlingsposition, eller så trappar man upp konflikten på ett sätt som gör Hormuzsundet irrelevant.

Oljemarknaden är övertygad om att Iran kommer att välja det senare alternativet. Tiden håller på att rinna ut för Teheran, eftersom landets ekonomi försvagas ytterligare för varje dag under den amerikanska ekonomiska blockaden.


Why Is Oil at $100 If Trump Is Winning the Battle in Hormuz?

I don’t know who will win the US-Iran war. But if you ask me who’s prevailing in the battle over the Strait of Hormuz, it’s clear US President Donald Trump has the advantage. 

As much as Tehran says the opposite, the strait is effectively wide open. Crude oil exports from regional US allies via the waterway, plus bypass routes, have risen to about 80% of prewar levels. 

Iran, meanwhile, has seen its own oil exports plunge to zero.

Iran now faces two choices: Either it softens its negotiating position, or it escalates in a way that renders Hormuz irrelevant. 

The oil market is convinced Iran will choose the latter. The clock is ticking for Tehran to decide because every day its economy deteriorates further under the American economic blockade. 

Bloomberg 30 September 2026

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2026-09-30/why-is-oil-at-100-if-trump-is-winning-the-battle-in-hormuz


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