Strait of Hormuz - Markets couldn’t seem to care less, Margin Call
In the movie Margin Call, Jeremy Irons plays an investment bank CEO on the eve of the 2008 financial crisis who insists his only job is to figure out where the market is headed next.
When he resolves to dump the firm’s mortgage-backed securities, he bangs the table and yells, “This is it! I’m telling you, THIS IS IT!”
I started my career as a geopolitical analyst in 2010 at George Friedman’s Stratfor, where my first assignment as a lowly intern was a red-team analysis of what would happen if Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz in response to a US/Israeli attack.
The closure would have been it.
Yet we never got to the point where George called us into the office at 3 am and banged on a table, precisely because geopolitical analysis demonstrated that Iran’s asymmetric leverage in blocking passage of oil through the Strait was sufficient to ward off any incursion.
If you could go back and tell that intern the Strait of Hormuz had now been closed for three months and counting, I’d have pictured a world out of Mad Max: Fury Road
Mad Max: Fury Road utspelar sig i en våldsam, postapokalyptisk ödemark där Imperator Furiosa och den tystlåtne ensamvargen Max tvingas samarbeta på en högexplosiv flykt undan en tyrannisk krigsherre.
—not one with Brent crude near $90 and US markets at record highs.
Even if Hormuz reopens on July 1, the world has lost 2 billion barrels of production.
And markets couldn’t seem to care less.
Jacob Shapiro June 4, 2026
https://www.mauldineconomics.com/the-world-isnt-ending/the-global-economys-competing-narratives
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