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Alan Greenspan: the 2008 crisis. I knew something was brewing, but I missed the actual date as frankly did everybody else.

Telegraph 10 August 2015


Who Predicted The Global Financial Crisis?
Michael J. Panzner, Financial Armageddon

The first major effort to identify those that publicly predicted the crisis was a paper titled "No One Saw This Coming": Understanding Financial Crisis Through Accounting Models by Dirk Bezemer. 

Bezemer identified 12 individuals (academics, government advisers, consultants, investors, stock market commentators and one graduate student) that between 2000 and 2006 warned specifically about a housing led recession within years. 

"Together they belie the notion that ’no one saw this coming’, or that those who did were either professional doomsayers or lucky guessers." 

The Bezemer 12 are

Dean Baker
Wynne Godley
Fred Harrison (UK)
Michael Hudson
Eric Janszen
Steve Keen (Australia)
Jakob Madsen & Jens Kjaer Sørensen (Denmark)
Kurt Richebächer
Nouriel Roubini
Peter Schiff
Robert Shiller

Bezemer applied four selection criteria.

Some account on how they arrived at their conclusions. Including an analytical account linking a real estate crisis to real-sector recessionary implications (eliminating John Talbott).

Prediction in the public domain, and

The prediction had to have some timing attached to it (eliminating Raghuram Rajan and Claudio Borio)


Financial Crisis


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