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Best tepid growth from 2023 onwards, and at worse stagflation...

central banks and governments are right to be terrified

if not quite a la 1970s, something that will feel pretty miserable nonetheless. 

This week's expected rise in interest rates may be just the start of it.

An increase of just 0.15 percentage points in the Bank of England's official policy rate - widely expected on Thursday - taking it to 0.25pc, may not seem much to write home about. If it marks an enduring change in the interest rate cycle, then it has plenty of symbolic significance.

Those of us who remember rates of 15pc in the late 1980s and early 90s, 1pc still looks as close to zero as to make no difference.

Jeremy Warner Telegraph 2 November 2021


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