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2021-11-01

‘big shift’ in global monetary policy

For much of this year, investors had swallowed central bankers’ mantra that there was no need to raise interest rates to combat a “transitory” burst of inflation. 

But an autumn surge in energy prices, and the surprising persistence of supply bottlenecks in the global economy, have sparked an increase in bets on earlier increases in borrowing costs.

https://www.ft.com/content/e8fd411b-6adc-4404-9d72-88fc7f9f475e


Markets are losing trust that central banks will stay dovish.  

John Authers Bloomberg 1 november 2021 

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-11-01/markets-lose-trust-in-central-bank-doves-testing-the-fed

 


Unusual Moves Happening in Bond Markets
Bloomberg 29 October 2021



Near Zero until 2023. Really?

The market will force the Fed to act earlier, I think.

Englund blogg 17 June 2021

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2021/06/near-zero-until-2023-really.html


Goldman Sachs räknar nu med att amerikanska centralbanken Fed höjer styrräntan redan nästa sommar. 

Goldman Sachs som tidigare hade en räntehöjning inprisad först tredje kvartalet 2023 

TT-Reuters 1 november 2021

https://www.svd.se/storbank-flaggar-for-rantehojning/i/senaste/om/naringsliv


There has still been a significant rise in inflation expectations, and a significant flattening of the curve, which implies a belief that the Fed will have to hike rates in the near future, and choke off growth thereafter

 John Authers Bloomberg 9 november 2021

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-11-09/gold-s-bad-vaccine-year-may-contain-a-troubling-message


Why the Yield Curve Is Flattening (And What That Means)

Bloomberg 8 oktober 2020 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-08/why-yield-curves-can-be-bull-or-bear-flat-or-steep-quicktake



Asked in an interview with Bloomberg News Sunday if she was worried by sharp movements in Treasury yields, Yellen responded, “No, not me. I think what we’re going to see is a good, solid recovery. The unemployment rate has gone down considerably, and this is nothing like the recovery from the 2008 financial crisis.”

The U.S. yield curve -- as measured by the gap between two-year and 10-year Treasury yields -- flattened the most last week since the summer of 2020. 

The move has been triggered in part by expectations the Federal Reserve will start raising interest rates sooner than previously anticipated, to quell inflation.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-01/yellen-dismisses-treasury-market-jitters-sees-solid-recovery


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