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2021-11-05

Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit all-time highs after stronger-than-expected October jobs report

 MarketWatch Nov. 5, 2021 

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-futures-rise-pointing-to-more-wall-street-records-as-investors-await-october-payrolls-11636110707


Stock market bullishness has reached an extreme

Mark Hulbert MarketWatch Nov. 5 2021

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/good-news-could-be-bad-news-stock-market-bullishness-has-reached-an-extreme-11636120064


S&P 500 has a broad valuation of around 22 times 12-month forward earnings, 30% above the average of the past two decades 

WSJ 5 November 2021

https://www.wsj.com/articles/reasons-why-stock-market-weaker-2022-11636057425


At their most recent policy-making meeting, Fed officials decided to keep short-term interest rates near zero, and gave no indication that they’re planning to raise rates significantly (or at all) over the next six to 12 months. 

This commitment to easy money must be seen as somewhat surprising, given that inflation is running well above the central bank’s long-term target of 2%.

These data suggest at least a nontrivial risk of a return to the persistent inflationary psychology that the U.S. experienced during the 1970s, and that required a brutal period of extremely tight monetary policy to tame.

Is the Fed Playing Politics With Interest Rates?

If so, look out for a 1970s-style inflationary spiral.

Narayana Kocherlakota Bloomberg 5 November 2021

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-11-05/is-the-fed-playing-politics-with-interest-rates




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