Marknadsjublet och spekulationer

 Marknadsjublet och spekulationer i snabba räntesänkningar är att ta ut segern över inflationen lite väl långt i förskott, varnar Federal Reserves tidigare vice ordförande Richard Clarida.

Nils Åkesson DI 18 december 2023

https://www.di.se/nyheter/fed-veteranen-darfor-hoppas-marknaden-pa-for-mycket/

The US Federal Reserve and its chair, Jerome Powell, are betting that they can have the best of both worlds 

— that they’ll be able to defeat excessive inflation without forcing the economy into recession.

I hope it goes well. Unfortunately, there’s still a significant chance it won’t.

Powell surprised markets last week with his extraordinarily dovish comments on the outlook for interest rates. 

The pivot significantly lowers the risk of a recession and hard landing — in large part through its effect on markets. 

Problem is, the central bank’s dovishness also increases the possibility of no landing at all — that is, overheating and persistent inflation that could undermine the Fed’s credibility, while requiring renewed tightening and a deeper recession to get things back under control.

Bill Dudley Bloomberg 18 december 2023

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-12-18/fed-chair-jerome-powell-s-pivot-is-a-pretty-big-gamble

The Fed Pencils in 2-3 Rate Cuts in 2024, the Market Expects 4-5

https://mishtalk.com/economics/the-fed-pencils-in-2-3-rate-cuts-in-2024-the-market-expects-4-5/

Sedan botten 27 oktober har Stockholmsbörsens OMXSPI-index stigit med 18 procent.

”Höga räntor länge” verkar bortglömt.

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2023/12/sedan-botten-27-oktober-har.html