Maturing US corporate debt is set to double
The amount of maturing US corporate debt is set to double in the next two years, to about $1 trillion in 2025, and triple in the euro zone, to the equivalent of more than $400 billion
The key question is whether inflation readings in coming months will allow policymakers to pivot quickly enough to blunt the impact of their past tightening—and head off a hard landing.
Bloomberg 11 December 2023
2024 Interest Rate Cut Races Debt to Avoid Hard Landing - Bloomberg
The world economy has been kept afloat for a quarter century by serial bubbles.
What’s Behind the Market’s Wild Overreactions?
On one level the market did exactly as it should: Inflation was lower than expected, so bond yields fell and stock prices rose, with rate-sensitive stocks rising the most.
But the scale of the moves was out of whack with what happened.
Core inflation came in at 0.23% month-on-month, against Wall Street expectations of 0.3%. Year-on-year inflation was 3.2%, below the predicted 3.3%.
Good news, for sure, but clearly not enough to justify a 5.4% leap in the Russell 2000, or even 1.9% on the S&P 500.
Tuesday was the culmination of the turn in the market narrative, from higher-for-longer interest rates back to a soft landing and rate cuts.
I think long-run higher rates are likely as we move from a globalized world with too much stuff and a nearly unlimited supply of foreign workers and money to a more domestically focused world where both workers and savings are scarce—and so cost more.
https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/whats-behind-the-markets-wild-overreactions-cae05ade
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