De normala cyklerna för investeringar, finans och ekonomi verkar nästan oanvändbara.

De överväldigas av två enorma chocker: pengarna som strömmar in på att förverkliga artificiell intelligens, och slaget mot den globala oljeförsörjningen från kriget i Iran.

Det förra överväger på något sätt fortfarande det senare och lämnar amerikanska aktier nära rekordnivåer.

Genom att avfyra förnyade missilattacker idag signalerar Iran att de fortfarande har kapacitet att orsaka smärta och inte kommer att tvingas till kapitulation. 

USA står i allt högre grad inför valet mellan ett långt krig som de inte vill utkämpa, eller en dålig, pinsam överenskommelse.

Med mellanårsvalet som väntar sätter det press på USA att ingå en överenskommelse.

Logiken pekar på en resolution som det kärnkraftsavtal som president Barack Obama gjorde (känt som JCPOA) som Trump medvetet drog sig ur 2018. Han är förståeligt nog ovillig att acceptera ett sådant resultat.

Optimismen kommer från AI…

Euforin är tillbaka till den första upphetsningen kring ChatGPT 2022 – förutom att den här gången gör vinsterna det tunga arbetet snarare än lovar.

Förra veckan indikerade att investerare verkligen är villiga att tolerera de enorma kostnaderna för utbyggnad av AI-datacenter, 

förutsatt att det finns anledning att tro att det kan leda till lönsamhet.

John Authers Bloomberg 5 maj 2026

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/newsletters/2026-05-05/iran-draws-a-line-and-puts-markets-on- 


The normal cycles of investing, finance and the economy seem almost inoperative. 

They’re overwhelmed by two huge shocks: the money pouring into making artificial intelligence a reality, and the hit to global oil supply from war in Iran. 

The former is somehow still outweighing the latter to leave US stocks near all-time highs.

By launching renewed missile attacks today, Iran is signalling that they still have the capacity to inflict pain and won’t be forced into capitulation. The US increasingly faces a choice between a long war it doesn’t want to fight, or a bad, embarrassing deal.

With midterm elections due, that puts pressure on the US to make a deal. 

The logic points to a resolution like the nuclear agreement done by President Barack Obama (known as the JCPOA) from which Trump pointedly withdrew in 2018. He’s understandably reluctant to accept such an outcome.

Optimism stems from AI…

The euphoria is right back to the first excitement over ChatGPT in 2022 — except that this time, earnings are doing the heavy lifting rather than promise. 

Last week indicated that investors are indeed willing to tolerate the immense costs of AI data-center buildouts, 

provided there’s reason to believe that it can lead to profitability.

John Authers Bloomberg May 5, 2026

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/newsletters/2026-05-05/iran-draws-a-line-and-puts-markets-on-notice



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