Bubblespotting is a lot harder than it seems

If identifying a bubble were easy, then we all could do it. And, if we all could do it, then a bubble wouldn’t form in the first place.

It’s easy to misinterpret overpricing for part of the market as an indication that everything is a bubble. 


Owen Lamont, a portfolio manager at Acadian Asset Management in Boston, has written extensively about market extremes.

One definition of a bubble, he jokes, is “when I think the stock market is overpriced and then it doubles,” as in 1999. (That year, the Nasdaq 100 index gained 102%, after returning 85% in 1998.)

The last of what Lamont calls “the four horsemen” of a bubble is a tidal wave of stock issuance.

https://www.acadian-asset.com/investment-insights/owenomics/no-we-are-not-in-a-bubble-yet

The real danger of bubblespotting is believing you can do it.

Jason Zweig Wall Street Journal May 8, 2026

https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/why-its-so-hard-to-spot-a-stock-market-bubble-63f40a1c



Wall Street is gearing up for a sales push that could enrich the middlemen and impoverish you.

I’m talking about private or alternative assets—investments outside the public stock and bond markets.  

Jason Zweig Wall Street Journal 20 December 2024

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/12/youre-invited-to-wall-streets-private.html



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