Trump now has three options. They are all bad

 A quick deal to reopen the Strait

Advantages: Reopening the Strait would lower oil prices and bring the global economy back from the brink. Trump would doubtless claim victory.

Disadvantages: By ending its embargo of Iran’s ports and ruling out military action, America would greatly reduce its leverage. Since Iran’s leaders would not concede when facing an embargo and constant air strikes, why would they yield if both pressures were lifted? 

Allowing Iran to agree to reopen the Strait would implicitly concede the principle that its regime now controls this vital artery.  

Maintain the US embargo on Iranian ports and hold out for a comprehensive deal

Advantages: If successful, this approach would allow America not just to reopen the Strait but to settle the nuclear issue and all other outstanding questions.

Disadvantages: In the meantime, the Strait would stay closed, with the world economy heading for the brink. The regime might believe that, instead of watching the ruination of the global economy, Trump’s determination will crack first  

Go back to war

Advantages: Trump might seek to reopen the Strait by force and impose his own terms for a comprehensive settlement on Iran’s regime.

Disadvantages: This would mean going back to war. Any operation to force the Strait would be fraught with risk and would almost certainly require American ground units. The Strait would stay closed until any such venture succeeded, with disastrous consequences for energy supplies and the global economy. 

Faced with this extraordinary trilemma, the first option – a quick and partial deal – may prove irresistible.

David Blair Chief Foreign Affairs Commentator Telegraph 6 May 2026

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/05/06/trump-three-options-all-bad/


6 May

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/05/6-maj-trump-fred-ekonomi-kult.html



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