The industry consensus on the reopening: Next month, at worst in July.
Why? Mostly because the consequences of the opposite happening — much higher energy prices and serious economic damage — are too painful to consider.
In the 1980s, American economist Herbert Stein made a famous observation: “If something cannot go on forever, it will stop.”
Today, Wall Street is leaning on a slightly tweaked version of Stein’s Law: “The Strait of Hormuz cannot be closed forever because it will cause too much economic damage. Therefore, it will reopen.”
Javier Blas Bloomberg May 23, 2026
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2026-05-23/iran-war-what-happens-to-the-oil-price-if-strait-of-hormuz-did-not-reopen
Trump Waves the White Flag of Surrender to Iran. What Can Go Wrong?
Mish 24 May 2026
https://mishtalk.com/economics/trump-waves-the-white-flag-of-surrender-to-iran-what-can-go-wrong/
Iran is beating Trump at the art of the deal
The war could end with Tehran more confident, more hardline and with new resources to rebuild its nuclear programme
Gideon Rachmann FT 25 May 2026
Trump’s Endgame Is Surrender
He seems to hope to slip away without Americans noticing the magnitude of this defeat.
Robert Kagan The Atlantic 21 May 2026
Tove Lifvendahl: Att det ens behöver meddelas att USA inte är berett att använda våld mot en annan alliansmedlem för att tillskansa sig land, är illustrativt för den tillvaro som försvarsalliansen och resten av världen behövt anpassa sig till under Trumps styre.
Bolton fick frågan om han hade närt någon förhoppning om att kunna förändra Trump.
Bolton svarade: ”Jag trodde att om vi kunde få honom att titta på fakta och överväga alternativen, så skulle han fatta begripliga beslut.
Inte nödvändigtvis sådana jag alltid skulle hålla med om, men åtminstone en process som maximerade chanserna för greppbara beslut.”
Tove Lifvendahl SvD 2026-05-24
Trump’s possible Iran deal may be almost as divisive as his decision to wage war
The best hope for ending a poorly planned war, which started with scant consultation with Congress or the American people, may be an unsatisfactory peace that leaves critical issues to be resolved later and deepens Washington strife.
Olof Ehrenkrona ställer frågan: Vem minns världen av igår som den såg ut den 27 februari 2026?
Då fartygen seglade fritt i Persiska viken och försörjde världen med olja och gas.
Trump responded by saying he did not "listen to the losers, who are critical about something they know nothing about".
"If I make a deal with Iran, it will be a good and proper one," he wrote on Truth Social.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2026-05-23/iran-war-what-happens-to-the-oil-price-if-strait-of-hormuz-did-not-reopen
Iran’s top negotiators travel to Qatar
https://www.ft.com/content/fa47c6bc-0910-4882-afa2-3e4aedb4ab6c?syn-25a6b1a6=1
US have a large trade deficit. It cannot go on for ever. When it stops the dollar will drop.
It is disturbing that the only time US had a near zero deficit was in 1992 when the dollar was low against the swedish krona.
Kan man undvika recession i USA när man måste minska importen med 600 miljarder dollar?
Jag vill fästa uppmärksamheten på årtalen 1982 och 1992 i Klas första diagram över det amerikanska handelsunderskottet.
Det visar att dessa märkesår i svensk ekonomisk politik var de enda år som USA hade balans i sin utrikeshandel.
Rolf Englund på Nationalekonomiska Föreningen 30/11 2004
With the large and unsustainable trade deficit it is also the level of demand and GNP that is too high.
When that level has to be adjusted we will all living in interesting times.
Rolf Englund, Letters to the Editor, Financial Times, November 6, 2000
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