The industry consensus on the reopening: Next month, at worst in July.
Why? Mostly because the consequences of the opposite happening — much higher energy prices and serious economic damage — are too painful to consider.
In the 1980s, American economist Herbert Stein made a famous observation: “If something cannot go on forever, it will stop.”
Today, Wall Street is leaning on a slightly tweaked version of Stein’s Law: “The Strait of Hormuz cannot be closed forever because it will cause too much economic damage. Therefore, it will reopen.”
Javier Blas Bloomberg May 23, 2026
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2026-05-23/iran-war-what-happens-to-the-oil-price-if-strait-of-hormuz-did-not-reopen
Trump Waves the White Flag of Surrender to Iran. What Can Go Wrong?
Mish 24 May 2026
https://mishtalk.com/economics/trump-waves-the-white-flag-of-surrender-to-iran-what-can-go-wrong/
US have a large trade deficit. It cannot go on for ever. When it stops the dollar will drop.
It is disturbing that the only time US had a near zero deficit was in 1992 when the dollar was low against the swedish krona.
Kan man undvika recession i USA när man måste minska importen med 600 miljarder dollar?
Jag vill fästa uppmärksamheten på årtalen 1982 och 1992 i Klas första diagram över det amerikanska handelsunderskottet.
Det visar att dessa märkesår i svensk ekonomisk politik var de enda år som USA hade balans i sin utrikeshandel.
Rolf Englund på Nationalekonomiska Föreningen 30/11 2004
With the large and unsustainable trade deficit it is also the level of demand and GNP that is too high.
When that level has to be adjusted we will all living in interesting times.
Rolf Englund, Letters to the Editor, Financial Times, November 6, 2000
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