Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: The oil shock has mushroomed into a larger bond crisis, Frankrike, Italien, Japan

Borrowing costs have reached critical levels across the G7. They are resetting the price of credit for vast swaths of the global financial system. 

The effects are cascading through the mortgage industry and pushing a universe of over-indebted companies towards a refinancing crisis.

Stock markets cannot defy this force for long. 

Societe Generale says that even if the war ends today, the lagged effects will push oil Brent prices to $125. 

“The sequence of tanker transit, discharge, refining, and distribution implies a delay of at least 52 days, meaning end-users do not see relief until late July at best,” 

The Iran war has pushed 10-year bond yields in France and Italy to almost 4pc, crossing the danger line where interest costs rise faster than the trend growth rate of nominal GDP. 

This is how a vicious budgetary circle begins.

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard Telegraph 19 May 2026

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2026/05/19/the-oil-shock-has-mushroomed-into-a-larger-bond-crisis/


Martin Wolf: The Gulf crisis may just be starting. First came the war. Then came the blockade. Now come the shortages.


From Dropping Bombs to Dropping Bonds
The economic costs of the Iran debacle keep rising
Paul Krugman May 20, 2026


High Bond Yields Are What America Needs 
US is the center of a transformative artificial intelligence boom, which is driving a capex supercycle that’s minting a fortune for chipmakers and spawning town-sized data centers. 

Elevated borrowing costs are the countervailing force the economy needs to maintain market discipline and prevent the equity rally from becoming an all-out speculative bubble.

Stocks can keep humming on the strength of the investment boom for now — and maybe much longer if AI companies ever manage to meaningfully monetize the new technology.
Jonathan Levin Bloomberg May 20, 2026




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