Ambrose även på svenska. Trump’s blockade of Iranian shipping has zero chance, $180 by the summer

Trumps blockad av iransk sjöfart har noll chans, 180 dollar till sommaren

1 maj 2026

Donald Trumps blockad av iransk sjöfart har noll chans att tvinga den militär-klerikala regimen att kapitulera innan smärtan blir outhärdlig för världsekonomin och i slutändan även för Amerika.

Vi är på väg mot 180 dollar till sommaren, men de globala priserna kan stiga mycket kraftigt om Trump inför exportrestriktioner på amerikansk råolja, diesel och flygbränsle, som just nu in på världsmarknaderna och driver upp priserna i Amerika.

Till min förvåning har inte ens den keynesianska turbo-boosten av tyska militärutgifter hindrat en krasch i det tyska Ifo-affärsklimatindexet till 84,4

lägre än det var vid den globala finanskrisens bottennivå.

Frankrike befann sig redan i en långsam svacka före kriget och har inga ammunition kvar för cykliska åtgärder, en åkomma som delas med Storbritannien.

"Lågkonjunkturen är här. Risken för en social explosion i Frankrike är mycket hög men risken ökar även för eurozonen," sade Marc Touati, en fransk ekonom, som tillade att dagens arga stämning hade en pre-revolutionär karaktär.

Italiens Giorgia Meloni har krävt ett omedelbart upphävande av EU:s stabilitetspakt, att tillåta större budgetunderskott och en bailout, med ett ökande krav från hennes koalition att trotsa Bryssel och gå ensam.

De vanliga interna striderna inom EU har börjat.

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard Telegraph 1 maj 2026

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2026/05/01/trump-video-game-war-europe-very-real-recession/


Donald Trump’s blockade of Iranian shipping has zero chance of forcing the military-clerical regime to capitulate before the pain becomes intolerable for the world economy and ultimately for America too.

We are heading for $180 by the summer but global prices could spiral much higher if Trump imposes export restrictions on US crude, diesel and jet fuel, the trio currently being sucked into world markets and driving up prices in America.

To my surprise, not even the Keynesian turbo-boost of German military spending has prevented a crash in the German Ifo business climate index to 84.4, lower than it was at the nadir of the global financial crisis.

France was already in a slow-motion slump before the war and has no ammunition left for counter-cyclical measures, an affliction shared with Britain.

“Recession is here. The risk of a social explosion in France is very high but the risk is rising for the eurozone too,” said Marc Touati, a French economist, who added that today’s angry mood had a pre-revolutionary character.

Italy’s Giorgia Meloni has called for an immediate suspension of the EU stability pact 

to allow bigger fiscal deficits and an emergency bailout, with a rising clamour from her coalition to defy Brussels and go it alone. 

The usual intra-EU fighting has begun.

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard Telegraph 1 May 2026

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2026/05/01/trump-video-game-war-europe-very-real-recession/


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