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The main question is when bond investors will recognize the risks and respond accordingly

James Carville, a political strategist for Bill Clinton, famously said that he’d like to be reincarnated as the bond market, because “you can intimidate everybody.”

When that moment comes, it will likely happen fast and be self-reinforcing. Flagging demand for Treasury bonds will push up the government’s borrowing costs, further worsening its finances and unnerving investors. 

The upward spiral in yields will persist until politicians are forced to compromise and act in a more fiscally responsible manner.

Bill Dudley Bloomberg 13 mars 2023


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