Yellen, Bernanke, Anna Wong and the approaching recession
“The most likely outcome is that the economy will move forward toward a soft landing.” So said then-San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen in October 2007, just two months before the Great Recession began.
Why do economists find it so difficult to anticipate recessions?
Forecasting typically assumes that what happens next in the economy will be some kind of extension of what’s already happened — a linear process.
But recessions are non-linear events. The human mind isn’t good at thinking about them.
There’s a better-than-even chance that sometime next year, the NBER will declare that a US recession began in the closing months of 2023.
Bloomberg calculations show that the poorest 80% of the population now have less cash on hand than they did before Covid.
Anna Wong and Tom Orlik Bloomberg 1 oktober 2023
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