Röd öppning 17 oktober
Vice riksbankschef Martin Flodén - en ränta på 4 procent är ”ganska blygsam”...
... med tanke hur hög inflationen är och har varit, och påpekade att enkla penningpolitiska modeller föreskriver att räntan ska höjas med mer än vad inflationen går upp.
I en bisats sa han också att han i efterhand tycker att det var fel att reservera sig mot höjningen med 50 punkter i april, då han själv vill nöja sig med 25 punkter.
Vice riksbankschef Per Jansson påpekade att de flesta andra centralbanker har höjt räntan mer.
Att inflationen har sjunkit så pass mycket den senaste tiden beror mycket på lägre energipriser. Justerat för dem har den underliggande inflationen de senaste månaderna ökat med en fart som uppräknat till årstakt ligger kring 4 procent, utan tydlig nedåtgående trend, noterade vice riksbankschef Aino Bunge.
Riksbankens direktion frågades ut i Riksdagens finansutskott.
Viktor Munkhammar DI 17 oktober 2023
When will the shoe finally drop?
Practically nobody in March 2022, when the Federal Reserve started hiking interest rates, figured the US economy could take 5.25 percentage points of increases and still be doing fine.
So when will the shoe finally drop?
Well, maybe it won’t. That seems to be the take of at least a few observers questioning whether the higher-rate environment — which doesn’t look likely to change anytime soon — will deal a major blow as borrowers have to refinance debt more expensively.
At least some homeowners are just not going to be exposed to those higher rates for a while. They’re staying put in their current properties and not surrendering their rock-bottom mortgage rates.
That dynamic has limited the inventory of residences for sale, pushing up property values.
Bloomberg 17 October 2023
US homeowners now pay around 7 percent on their new 30-year mortgages Many have loans far less cheaper. Good for them.
On the other hand, as economists like to say, if inflation returns to 2 percent, the real rate on new loans will be 5 percent for many years.
Englund blogg 16 augusti 2023
The macro future is essentially unknowable
Howard Marks, legendary credit investor and Oaktree Capital Management co-founder, has historically taken a humble approach to investing:
the macro future is essentially unknowable. Here’s how he put it in his 2011 book The Most Important Thing:
- I’m firmly convinced that (a) it’s hard to know what the macro future holds and (b) few people possess superior knowledge of these matters that can regularly be turned into an investing advantage.
Which is why I /Jonathan Levin/ was so surprised to see him put out a pair of essays recently that seemed to traffic in the sort of sweepy macro soothsaying that he’s long criticized
Spread of Italian debt over German almost 200 basis points
— the widest since January
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