Den amerikanska PCE-inflationen, som brukar beskrivas som Federal Reserves favoritinflationsmått, steg med 0,4 procent i september i linje med augusti-siffran.
The optimistic view points to a small decline in the annual rate of core inflation to a more than two-year low of 3.7% from 3.8% in the prior month.
Good news, to be sure, but the rate of inflation is still far away from the Fed's 2% target.
Not only that, but the 0.4% increase in headline PCE and 0.3% in the core rate (which omits food and energy) won't let the Fed achieve its goal.
Monthly headline and core inflation increases need to slow to 0.1% or 0.2% a month to get there.
Förväntningarna var att den skulle bromsat in till en månadstakt på 0,3 procent.
U.S. fighter jets launched airstrikes early Friday on two locations in eastern Syria linked to Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps, the Pentagon said, in retaliation for a slew of drone and missile attacks against U.S. bases and personnel in the region
Fossila bränslen kan nå sin topp innan år 2030. Då kommer solceller stå för mer el än hela USA:s energisystem gör i dag.
Men det räcker inte. Dagens politik leder till en uppvärmning på 2,4 grader. Ska Parisavtalets mål nås måste det till krafttag, enligt Internationella energiorganet IEA:s energirapport.
A separate study that came out last week suggests the world may have reached “a global irreversible solar tipping point,” with ever-cheaper solar dominating electricity markets purely because of market forces, without any additional climate policies.
‘That’s exactly what we did back in the housing boom in 2006’
Mortgage rates are at the highest level since 2000, with the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaging 7.9% as of October 20.
... growing popularity of affordability boosters like adjustable-rate mortgages, assumable mortgages, and down payments as small as 1%.
The 2/28 and 3/27 refer to adjustable-rate mortgages. With the 2/28 loan, a buyer has a fixed rate for the first two years, after which the mortgage rate is pegged to the prevailing rate and adjusts every year or even more often.
The 3/27 ARM is similar, but the initial fixed term is three years instead of two.
Today, home-lending standards have become much stricter, the industry says, with more attention paid to whether a borrower has the ability to pay their debts.
Yet with 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rates at 8% and home-buying demand drying up, lenders are still trying to introduce more creative ways to help buyers.
In the fiscal year that just ended, the US government borrowed $1.7 trillion, more than 6% of gross domestic product. Bear in mind, that was with an economy running hot, with high inflation and more than full employment.
Unless something is done, the ratio of net federal debt to GDP will soon surpass 106% — a level last reached at the end of World War II — then keep on rising.
This outlook, largely ignored by Washington’s policymakers, points to a looming budget catastrophe.
Higher nominal rates raise the cost of servicing debt, but don’t worsen the long-term debt position if they merely offset inflation, which causes both debt and nominal GDP to grow faster.
Meaningful fiscal discipline demands responsible entitlement reform combined with higher taxes applied to a sufficiently broad base — meaning not confined to corporate profits or the highest incomes.
Neither party is willing, as yet, to even contemplate such changes. At some point they’ll have to
Trump has already singled out pharma companies and countries like Ireland that reap the benefits of tax-avoidance moves. Despite its small size, Ireland ran an $87 billion trade surplus with the U.S. last year—larger than any country except China, Mexico and Vietnam. https://www.wsj.com/health/pharma/how-trumps-tariffs-could-upend-pharmas-overseas-tax-strategy-5b8ca758 Is Ireland vulnerable again as the world’s vast shadow banking system starts to crack? Shadow banking is the dog that has not barked during the latest global spasm of financial stress. This is very fortunate, especially for small countries such as Ireland that have bet the farm on this industry. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2023/04/is-ireland-vulnerable-again-as-worlds.html Cayman Islands https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cayman_Islands What the heck is happening in the Cayman Islands? A Sunny Place for a Shady Online Business https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2021/12/a-sunny-place-for-shady-online-business.html Ti...
1968 Vojne, vojne, vänsterdårarna kommer AI Artificial intelligence https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/06/ai-artificial-intelligence.html Akvedukten vid Zaghouan, Sven Otto Littorin och Niall Ferguson. Denna vackra betraktelse från 1994 har sedan dess legat i mitt bakhuvud. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/04/akvedukten-vid-zaghouan-sven-otto.html Alistair Darling, Northern Rock och Royal Bank of Scotland https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/07/alistair-darling.html Bank stress tests https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/06/bank-stress-tests.html Bessent https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/06/bessent.html Gordon Brown https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/07/gordon-brown_5.html Buy the dip https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/07/buy-dip.html Fastighetsbolagen https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/07/fastighetsbolagen.html Tomas Fischer https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/07/tomas-fischer.html James Grant https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/07/james-grant.h...
The breakdown of monetarism During the past decade, the links between economic activity, inflation, and monetary policy that were taken for granted in the 1980s and 1990s have completely broken down. The pre-crisis dogma that inflation “is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon” has turned out to be nonsense, at least for advanced economies, where central banks have printed money like wallpaper without any inflationary response. Anatole Kaletsky Project Syndicate 23 April 2019 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2019/05/equity-prices-bond-prices-qand.html Detta är den grundläggande tanken för det som följer: Det fördes länge en debatt om vilket M som skulle vara bäst för att förutse framtiden. Själv har jag tänkt mig att hushåll och företag har en skattkista där överst finns kassa och bank, längre ner värdepapper, belåningsmöjligheter och fastigheter och längst ner "The Family Silver". https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/01/vad-ar-pengar-m1-m2-m3-osv-monetary.html So, ...
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