Röd öppning - Red Opening 26 oktober 2023
Meanwhile in New York
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Did they really think there would be no financial consequences to keeping interest rates at or near zero for more than a decade?
The worst selloff of longer-term Treasuries in more than four decades is putting a spotlight on the market’s biggest missing buyer: the Federal Reserve.
Storbankernas insättningar i Riksbanken ligger i dag kring 1000 miljarder kronor. Bankernas räntenetto stiger därför
Nu har räntan höjts till 4. För bankernas bank, Riksbanken, har det skapat en ny årlig ränteutgift på ungefär 40 miljarder kronor.
QE
Nu kan det vara dags att börja öka exponeringen mot aktier säger Danske Banks aktiestrateg Molly Guggenheimer
Affärsvärlden 25 oktober 2023
SvD/TT 28 juni 2021
The U.S. trade deficit in goods widened 1.3% to $85.8 billion in September
Det är bra med en självständig centralbank.
ECB Deposit rate kept at 4%
They reiterated in a statement that holding borrowing costs at that level for long enough will make a “substantial contribution” to bringing consumer-price gains back to the 2% target.
Attention seen shifting to faster wind-down of bond holdings — primarily, the €1.7 trillion ($1.8 trillion) pandemic bond portfolio, known as PEPP.
Winding down PEPP more quickly than currently planned would bolster monetary tightening and accelerate a wider exit from crisis-era stimulus. But such a move may prove controversial
Italian Bonds Are at the Mercy of the ECB
As one of Europe’s weaker sovereign credits, Italy is particularly vulnerable to the ECB’s attempts to curb inflation by raising interest rates, which have seen the deposit rate increase by 450 basis points in just 15 months.
And although the central bank kept policy unchanged last month and is expected to stay on hold again Thursday, there’s a risk the Governing Council will switch to a different flavor of monetary tightening by accelerating the unwind of its bond portfolio.
That would be dangerous.
Italy has €100 billion of new debt to raise in the coming year,
on top of €210 billion of bonds to refinance including €68 billion in the two months ending in November.
Its maturing debt has an average coupon of around 2% but its seven-year average maturity yield now is 4.5%
The saving public has really stepped up to the plate in the last year, purchasing €150 billion of five- to eight-year government bonds
Unfortunately, there’s been a correspondingly large drop in bank deposits.
Marcus Ashworth Bloomberg 26 oktober 2023
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