Röd öppning 16 oktober 2023
John Authers Bloomberg 16 oktober 2023
Nice While It Lasted
Consensus Builds That the Low-Rate Era Is Dead
Bloomberg 16 oktober 2023
Banks Have a Big Commercial Real Estate Problem
Fed has a liquidity program (BTFP explained below) to help banks paper over losses.
Small regional banks overleveraged in long term treasuries and were clobbered by paper losses and then bank runs.
In response, the Fed agreed to shield the banks from losses by offering swaps at par value, ignoring the losses.
Mish 15 October 2023
Beware Market Complacency
Global bond losses are approaching $4 trillion since July. The biggest risk? Banks stuck with deteriorating bonds.
At the end of June, there were $500 billion of unrealized bond losses at 289 U.S. banks. More than $100 billion of that may be at Bank of America. Yikes.
In March, Silicon Valley Bank lost a measly $1.8 billion selling $21 billion in bonds, which caused a run and SVB’s implosion.
Then add commercial real-estate loans. About $500 billion a year needs to be refinanced at much higher interest rates.
New 30-year home mortgages are dancing around 8%.
Andy Kessler WSJ 15 October 2023
Commercial Real Estate
Banks
A changing of the guard among the biggest buyers of US Treasuries
has Wall Street veterans bracing for further pain in the world’s largest bond market.
Bloomberg 13 oktober 2023
Time Is Running Out for the ‘Year of the Bond’ as Losses Mount
Bloomberg 15 oktober 2023
The rise in yields in recent weeks had seemed unstoppable,
The fragility of the Treasury market’s advance was in full view Thursday when gains were swept away by data showing that US inflation remains elevated, and from anemic demand for an auction of 30-year bonds, despite offering the highest yield since 2007.
Haven demand bolstered the market Friday, with escalating Middle-East warfare stoking global recession fears.
Bloomberg 14 October 2023
US government debt is a safe haven the way Pearl Harbor was a safe haven in 1941.
Niall Ferguson, FT February 10 2010
https://www.internetional.se/bondsnext.htm
Back - Next - Book Home - Climate Change
Kommentarer