Bonds och räntor
Bonds
https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/search/label/bonds
The Treasury expects to borrow $243 billion in the second quarter, which is $41 billion higher than previously estimated.
Looking ahead to the third quarter, Treasury said it expects to borrow $847 billion in net marketable debt
MarketWatch 29 April 2024
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/treasury-raises-its-second-quarter-borrowing-estimate-2f47feda
– Om ECB sänker fyra eller fem gånger då kan Riksbanken sänka sex gånger,
säger säger Nordeas chefekonom Annika Winsth.
Nordeas prognos för styrräntan är att den sänks med början i maj för att bottna på 2,50 procent i slutet av 2024 eller början på 2025 – jämfört med dagens 4 procent.
Sex förväntade räntesänkningar på 0,25 procentenheter ska ses i relation till de senaste två årens uppgång från 0 till 4 procent.
Det motsvarar 16 räntehöjningar.
– Alla de som är under 40 har tills nyligen bara levt i en tid då räntorna varit låga. För dem är ju låga räntor det normala och det vi har nu är det onormala.
SvD 29 maj 2024
https://www.svd.se/a/LM05dP/bankchefens-oro-hushallen-har-for-stor-optimism-om-borantorna
Swaps traders now see only one Fed rate reduction for all of 2024
Fed Rate-Cut Debate Shifts From When Toward If
Policymakers are widely expected to hold rates steady at a more than two-decade high at the conclusion of their meeting Wednesday
Officials are also expected to announce a near-term slowing in the reduction of the Fed’s $7.4 trillion balance sheet — a move that’s independent from any decision on interest-rate timing.
Policymakers have voiced the need for a cautious approach to further runoff, hoping to avoid market turmoil.
Bloomberg 28 April 2024
Now Worry About the Fed Unwinding Its Balance Sheet
https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/01/now-worry-about-fed-unwinding-its.html
SBAB räknar med fem räntesänkningar från Riksbanken i år
Here’s the bad news:
Unfavorable base effects now mean that you’d need monthly core PCE reports of under 0.2% for the rest of the year to meet the Fed’s year-end forecast for 2.6%.
And though I hate to discourage my fellow optimists, that’s not going to happen,
and as a result, our hoped-for three rate cuts this year probably aren’t going to materialize either
(one cut is the most likely outcome, and we’ll be lucky if we get two.)
The hawks would have you believe that inflation has become a story of an economy juiced by excess demand and the wealth-effect from a hot stock market, but I still doubt that’s the case.
Jonathan Levin 26 april 2024 at 19:01 CEST
Bonds
https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/search/label/bonds
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