Englund

 Seminarium om forskarens roll i samhällsutvecklingen. SvT Forum 7 september 2020 Assar Lindbeck om 90-talet:  En fråga värd att diskutera är om det var rätt att hålla investeringar inom utgiftstaket https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2017/05/assar-lindbeck-om-90-talet-en-fraga.html

 If traders simply  believe  the Fed will intervene should interest rates go above or below a certain level, rates probably won’t breach that level, or even get close to it. No one wants to make the Fed pull its trigger.  This is why central banks are so obsessed with “credibility.” They don’t want to actually use their monetary firepower, Central banks once sought to  stop  inflation, not achieve it. Now generating it is the goal.    The concept of a 2% (or more!) average inflation level, running even hotter at times, has been discussed in economic circles for many years.   Core PCE [Personal Consumption Expenditures] understates to the greatest degree of any inflation metric the cost of healthcare and housing PCE lets them pretend inflation is low and achieve their unwritten policy objective of keeping the stock market bubbling along. But unintended or not, the consequences are still there. Is the average man on the street unjustified in th...

The new framework for US monetary policy announced at the Jackson Hole symposium in August is a watershed event, for both the practice of macroeconomic policy, and the theory that lies behind it. In the Federal Reserve Reform Act of 1977, following a period of “stagflation”, the US Congress gave the Fed three main objectives: maximum employment, stable prices and moderate long-term interest rates, in that order.  In the early 1980s, Paul Volcker crucially interpreted that mandate to place the greatest emphasis on stable prices. He broke the back of double-digit inflation but at the expense of increasing unemployment to above 10 per cent. Gavyn Davies FT 6 September 2020 www.ft.com/content/facfe2cf-c78e-4085-882e-fdac59f1329d Stagflation Volcker startade sedelpressarna, inte Greenspan. Englund 2014 Why did he do that? Because the high US interest rates also started the LatinAmerica Debt Crisis. https://www.internetional.se/re82bok.htm

Bubbles are formed around individual stocks and sectors.  As the concentric circles of excess widen, more and more stocks are infected. Wildly exaggerated stock stories force a delinking between fundamental analysis and share prices.   That is how a stock such as Tesla commands a market capitalisation of about $400bn, up from $80bn in March, and $40bn one year ago.  FT 7 September 2020

As dedicated followers of fashion, European central bankers have also been following the intellectual trends set by others. When inflation targeting was in vogue in the 1990s, the European Central Bank adopted the new regime and became a paid-up subscriber to the economic theory that lay behind it.  Inflation targeting turned out to be a stunning success, for about a decade. That ended at about the time a series of crises descended on Europe.  The last time the core rate of inflation in the eurozone was above 2 per cent was in 2008. Wolfgang Münchau FT 5 September 2020 The troubling bit is that these forecasts reveal a basic lack of understanding of the underlying inflation process. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2020/07/the-troubling-bit-is-that-these.html

The dollar index has fallen more than 9 per cent since its crisis-induced peak in March. FT 31 August 2020 https://www.ft.com/content/83c16626-f617-4bb3-872e-fd6723a36c11?segmentId=d5b394cd-81a0-f450-2f27-79547317bdaa

FT 3 September 2020 https://www.ft.com/content/88c0ef38-6aea-41a0-bdf9-974cdd9976cb Jag tycker det är skriande uppenbart att räntan världen över är för låg och att en större del av stimulanserna borde ske via finanspolitiken. Rolf Englund blog 5 december 2009 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2014/08/skriande-uppenbart.html

SvT 4 september 2020 https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/regeringen-forlanger-omstallningsstod-till-coronakrisande-foretag - Most governments still deny that they can print money with impunity, as advocated by modern monetary theory, but what matters is that they are doing it. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2020/06/simon-kuper-ar-en-lysande-skribent-hos.html

while tech company shares had exhibited swings reminiscent of the end of the 1990s dotcom boom, the outlook for equities remained positive. FT 4 September 2020 https://www.ft.com/content/bd5804ef-94d0-45b4-9c2b-8fb7996ec5f6

The US’s trade deficit in goods and services grew to $63.6bn, its highest since July 2008..  The country’s goods deficit of $80.9bn, was the highest on record. FT 3  September 2020 Njce chart 1804curr80ff.png More about USD on this blog More at IntCom

A “Minsky moment,” named after economist Hyman Minsky, refers to a sudden market collapse following an unsustainable bull run, which in this case could be fueled by the “easy credit” environment created as a result of unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus measures. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/03/markets-are-facing-a-potential-minsky-moment-collapse-strategist-says.html https://www.internetional.se/minskybank.htm

Apple is worth approximately £1.65tn, while the whole FTSE 100 is worth just under £1.63tn https://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2020/09/01/apple-now-worth-entire-ftse-100/

Sandbu FT 3q August 2020 https://www.ft.com/content/380e6290-ded1-4050-aa5f-9c3d1b9ed2bd https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/federal-reserve-monetary-policy-strategy-mistakes-by-willem-h-buiter-2020-08 Fed’s Dangerous New Strategy Aug 31, 2020 WILLEM H. BUITER The  

Former Fed chairman Paul Volcker brought down price rises in the 1980s, but at the cost of two recessions.  Afterwards, expanding global trade, the decline in the crude oil price and the advent of e-commerce pitched in. Independent central banks targeting inflation did not tame inflation, but the erosion of labour power and the consequent moderation in wages did. The final act for the US dollar as the global reserve currency.  It may not be the end, but it is the beginning of the end. Anantha Nageswaran FT 31 August 2020 Volcker startade sedelpressarna, inte Greenspan. Rolf Englund  2014-04-08

  “In an international monetary system dominated by the U.S. dollar, the unprecedented, unlimited quantitative easing policy of the U.S. actually consumes the creditworthiness of the dollar and erodes the foundation of global financial stability,”   https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-16/china-s-banking-watchdog-warns-fed-easing-risks-financial-crisis

Ja, nu är spexet slut, och i full vigör gå vi att taga snapsen. Men det är god kutym, att man med en kör slut uppå spexet gör. Ja, medgen´ att vår renässans var den bästa tid som fanns: den strålar med lockande glans i vår nutida dekadans, och kanske i sista instans skall man finna någonstans, att den nog är en konnässans, som hjälper mot intolerans. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uxRtevj4PMM Under dubbelörnen Under dubbelörnen (tyska:Unter dem Doppeladler), även benämnd General-Lindler-Marsch, är en österrikisk marsch skriven av Josef Franz Wagner. https://sv.wikipedia.org/wiki/Under_dubbel%C3%B6rnen https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4AwIWi6r0p4 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lGpqghXWYX0

Your answer will largely depend on what you mean by “the west”. Words morph. The term ”liberal” used to mean 19th-century bourgeois nationalists who believed in free trade. In America it evolved to mean people who believe both in social freedom and government intervention in the economy.  Conservative originally derived from ”conserve” that things should be kept the same.  Now, in America at least, it means whatever Donald Trump wants it to mean, which can take even his closest acolytes by surprise. Edward Luce FT 27 August 2020

Pandemic exposes stress in commercial property FT Big Read 30 August 2020 https://www.ft.com/content/e4b2302b-76c5-494a-8560-e6d24de9358f Concerns mount over reckless 2008-style lending in the $52 trillion shadow banking sector Ambrose Evans-Pritchard Telegraph 27 June 2019 https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/06/27/concerns-mount-reckless2008-style-lending-52-trillion-shadow/ A bloodbath awaits commercial property investors https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2020/06/a-bloodbath-awaits-commercial-property.html

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-biggest-problem-in-the-stock-market-bullishness-is-clouding-investors-thinking-2020-08-27

Att regeringen satsar aktivt och i den här skalan för att överbrygga en ekonomisk kris har inte skett på länge, inte på 40–50 år.   Budgetsatsningarna under finanskrisen var betydligt mindre.  De stora underskotten på 1990-talet var stora, men egentligen inte medveten politik på samma sätt som nu. Carl Johan von Seth DN 26 augusti 2020 https://www.dn.se/ekonomi/carl-johan-von-seth-miljarderna-i-krisbudgeten-maste-anvandas-snabbt-och-ratt/ Kommentar "De stora underskotten på 1990-talet var stora, men egentligen inte medveten politik på samma sätt som nu." Egentligen inte? Var inte alls, en medveten politik.  Tvärtom var försökte Wibble och även Persson att få ner underskotten, Göran Persson om 90-talet: Vi gjorde mycket fel, naturligtvis. Kanske borde vi ha sparat lite mindre.  https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2017/05/goran-persson-om-90-talet-vi-gjorde_7.html