“I believe we are in the biggest bear market in my life,”
David Wright, 78, knows a thing or two about bear markets. His Sierra Tactical All Asset Fund barely lost anything in 2008
There are no shortage of bears making similar claims these days.
The fund has lost 2.3% in 2022, beating 91% of its peers tracked by Bloomberg.
What’s underpinning Wright’s bearishness isn’t the Fed, inflation or the war. It’s the zealous behavior of investors during the past few years that sent everything from meme stocks to cryptocurrencies soaring.
below 10. Currently, while the S&P 500’s 12-month trailing P/E ratio has dropped to 21, from 32 in March 2021, it is still above the average of 19 over the past two decades.
“Young people have no clue what the downside might be, what causes drawdowns and how far it can go,”
Ye Xie Bloomberg 4 maj 2022
The important question to ask is “What drove the bubble?”
That’s where the lessons are.
What Triggered the Crash? - Hussman Funds
https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2021/07/what-triggered-crash-hussman-funds.html
Long-suffering market bears, like John Hussman
https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2019/05/long-suffering-market-bears-like-john.html
Jeremy Grantham
https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2022/01/us-market-approaches-end-of-superbubble.html
Just nu stoppar nog de flesta huvudet i sanden och fingrarna i öronen
och hoppas att både högre räntor och inflation försvinner.
Men gör de inte det kommer något att smälla, och det kanske redan till hösten när mörkret kommer med tillhörande svårmod.
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