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2022-05-05

“I believe we are in the biggest bear market in my life,”

David Wright, 78, knows a thing or two about bear markets. His Sierra Tactical All Asset Fund barely lost anything in 2008 

There are no shortage of bears making similar claims these days. 

The fund has lost 2.3% in 2022, beating 91% of its peers tracked by Bloomberg. 

What’s underpinning Wright’s bearishness isn’t the Fed, inflation or the war. It’s the zealous behavior of investors during the past few years that sent everything from meme stocks to cryptocurrencies soaring. 

below 10. Currently, while the S&P 500’s 12-month trailing P/E ratio has dropped to 21, from 32 in March 2021, it is still above the average of 19 over the past two decades.

“Young people have no clue what the downside might be, what causes drawdowns and how far it can go,”

Ye Xie Bloomberg 4 maj 2022

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-04/78-year-old-investor-preps-for-biggest-bear-market-of-my-life


The important question to ask is “What drove the bubble?” 

That’s where the lessons are. 

What Triggered the Crash? - Hussman Funds

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2021/07/what-triggered-crash-hussman-funds.html


Long-suffering market bears, like John Hussman

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2019/05/long-suffering-market-bears-like-john.html


Jeremy Grantham

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2022/01/us-market-approaches-end-of-superbubble.html



Just nu stoppar nog de flesta huvudet i sanden och fingrarna i öronen 

och hoppas att både högre räntor och inflation försvinner. 

Men gör de inte det kommer något att smälla, och det kanske redan till hösten när mörkret kommer med tillhörande svårmod.

https://cornucopia.se/2022/05/vantad-rantehojning-i-usa-med-en-halv-procentenhet-blandade-borser-i-asien-under-morgonen-paradigmskifte-med-inflation-och-hogre-rantor/





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