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Johan Javeus, chefsstrateg på SEB, är självkritisk

”Ekonomer och prognosmakare är notoriskt dåliga på att lägga in recessioner i prognoserna. Det händer i princip aldrig.”

Viktor Munkhammar DI 5 maj 2022


They don’t want to be what investor Mark Kritzman calls “wrong and alone.” 

A manager with one-third of assets in Chinese stocks won’t get fired if that market falls, since almost every other firm has similar exposure. 

Being wrong together gives every manager plausible deniability.

Englund: NOBODY KNOWS ANYTHING (englundmacro.blogspot.com)

The consensus view is for S&P to rise by 10.1% this year and 9.5% in 2023. 

Those figures have given comfort to people betting equities can hold firm. The issue for investors is that there’s little precedent of such estimates changing in the runup to periods of market stress. 

The most famous example is the eve of the 2008 financial crisis, when Wall Street prognosticators pegged the increase in earnings at 15% over the next 12 months.
Bloomberg 6 May 2022

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