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2022-05-10

The real fed funds rate

 (ie the difference between the target rate for the central bank and inflation) has historically been a reliable gauge of the monetary policy. 

When the real fed funds rate is positive, interest rates are high enough to slow nominal growth. 

But when the real fed funds rate is negative, it suggests the Fed is trying to stoke the economy.

Despite the fact that inflation is at a 40-year high by virtually any measure, the real fed funds rate is now negative to a degree that is far beyond historic averages.

The real fed funds rate is negative 7.5 per cent versus the 50-year average of 1 per cent. 

Richard Bernstein FT 10 May 2022

https://www.ft.com/content/dc8c38f9-d1f2-4340-bee4-81141244a283


Göran Persson:  ”Skulle vi få upp räntan till 1 eller 2 procent så har vi ändå en ränta - och en penningpolitik som kan bedrivas på ett begripligt sätt. Då skulle man faktiskt i ett krisläge kunna sänka räntan”

DI 5 maj 2022

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2022/05/goran-persson-vi-kan-inte-leva-hur.html


Money markets see ECB rate climbing to zero by October from minus 0.5% currently. 

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2022/03/money-markets-see-ecb-rate-climbing-to.html

RE: Det är låga nivåer.


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