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2022-05-07

You can’t say you weren’t warned.

It’s axiomatic in markets: you never see it coming. But this selloff is an argument that sometimes you do. 

While the timing was often wrong, it’s hard to say those views aren’t playing out now

What starts as a trickle “turns into a bigger outfall as everybody starts to say ‘I need to take off risk’ and nobody wants to take the other side.”

Bloomberg 6 May 2022

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-06/brutal-stock-selloff-is-a-multitude-of-bear-cases-coming-true


When the time comes to ask the question – “What triggered the crash?” 

– remember that this is the least important question. A market crash requires nothing more than a shift in investor psychology from careless speculation to even modest risk-aversion.  

John P. Hussman July 2021

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2021/07/what-triggered-crash-hussman-funds.html


Measured from the recent market peak, I expect S&P 500 total returns to be negative, on average, for well over a decade – an outcome I also projected at the 2000 market peak. 

That said, if a steep market decline was to front-load those losses, investors could also enjoy prospects for satisfactory long-term returns even a year or two from now. 

It’s current valuation extremes, and the dismal long-term returns they imply, that long-term investors may want to think twice about locking in.

John P. Hussman April 2022

https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc220429/


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