Bulgaria’s adoption of the euro may be the spark that ignites a new Greek-style debt disaster

On Jan 1, Bulgaria became the 21st member of the euro. 

Its government has just fallen, there are public protests over corruption, and ordinary Bulgarians, who inevitably were not asked for their views in a referendum, appear very lukewarm about the whole project. 

Bulgaria ranks among the poorest countries in the EU, with a GDP per capita of $17,600  compared to $56,000 in Germany and $46,000 in France in 2024. 
Still, never mind. The country will be hustled into a monetary union with Germany and France all the same. After all, what could possibly go wrong? Well, quite a lot, as it happens.

On almost any criterion you might care to choose, it would be hard to come up with a much worse candidate for a monetary union with Germany or the Netherlands.

Matthew Lynn Telegraph 1 January 2026

Kommentarer

Skicka en kommentar

Populära inlägg i den här bloggen

Pfizer in 2019 sold $20 billion of drugs in the U.S. Its federal tax bill? Zero; Ireland

Trump has already singled out pharma companies and countries like Ireland that reap the benefits of tax-avoidance moves.  Despite its small size, Ireland ran an $87 billion trade surplus with the U.S. last year—larger than any country except China, Mexico and Vietnam. https://www.wsj.com/health/pharma/how-trumps-tariffs-could-upend-pharmas-overseas-tax-strategy-5b8ca758 Is Ireland vulnerable again as the world’s vast shadow banking system starts to crack? Shadow banking is the dog that has not barked during the latest global spasm of financial stress. This is very fortunate, especially for small countries such as Ireland that have bet the farm on this industry. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2023/04/is-ireland-vulnerable-again-as-worlds.html Cayman Islands https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cayman_Islands What the heck is happening in the Cayman Islands? A Sunny Place for a Shady Online Business https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2021/12/a-sunny-place-for-shady-online-business.html Ti...
Läs mer

My blogg short index

Bild
1968 Vojne, vojne, vänsterdårarna kommer AI Artificial intelligence https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/06/ai-artificial-intelligence.html Akvedukten vid Zaghouan, Sven Otto Littorin och Niall Ferguson. Denna vackra betraktelse från 1994 har sedan dess legat i mitt bakhuvud. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/04/akvedukten-vid-zaghouan-sven-otto.html Alistair Darling, Northern Rock och Royal Bank of Scotland https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/07/alistair-darling.html Bank stress tests https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/06/bank-stress-tests.html Bessent https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/06/bessent.html Gordon Brown https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/07/gordon-brown_5.html Buy the dip https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/07/buy-dip.html Fastighetsbolagen https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/07/fastighetsbolagen.html Tomas Fischer https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/07/tomas-fischer.html James Grant https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/07/james-grant.h...
Läs mer

Niall Ferguson: The AI Boom Is a House of Cards, Tyler Cowen: Not so fast

AI is driving markets and GDP growth—but the underlying financing resembles the 19th-century railroad industry, which had its own share of crashes. Financial history can help us here. If you’re unsure if there’s an AI bubble, refer to the historian Charles Kindleberger’s five-stage model: Displacement: Some change in economic circumstances creates new and profitable opportunities for certain companies. Euphoria or overtrading: A feedback process sets in whereby rising expected profits lead to rapid growth in share prices. Mania or bubble: The prospect of easy capital gains attracts first-time investors and swindlers eager to defraud them. Distress: The insiders discern that expected profits cannot possibly justify the now-exorbitant price of the shares and begin to take profits by selling. Revulsion or discredit: As share prices fall, the outsiders stampede for the exits, causing the bubble to burst altogether. We are currently at stage 3. Niall Ferguson The Free Press 17 November 2025...
Läs mer