OpenAI and chipmaking equipment ASML
Former star Fidelity manager warns on OpenAI
Flagging his post on X was “The Big Short’s” Michael Burry, a steady critic of the AI boom who shot to fame for accurately calling the housing bust. “This is not surprising and will not end with OpenAI,” he said of Noble’s post.
Deutsche Bank estimates that OpenAI would see $143 billion in cumulative negative cash flow before turning a profit.
Ex-Fidelity manager George Noble said there’s been little discussion of the vast energy needed to keep these AI companies going, saying it will cost five times the energy and money to make models two times better.
“The low-hanging fruit is gone. Every incremental improvement now requires exponentially more computer, more data centers, more power,” said Noble.
Barbara Kollmeyer MarketWatch Jan. 21, 2026
Dutch chipmaking equipment supplier ASML
ASML sells just over 40 of its most advanced chipmaking machines each year. For over a decade, investors questioned whether such limited volumes could ever add up to a viable business.
Those doubts have aged badly. After an 80 per cent rise in its share price over the past six months, ASML is now valued at more than $500bn.
It is the only company that can make the extreme ultraviolet lithography machines required to produce those advanced chips. Each one has a starting price of $220mn and there is no commercially credible alternative supplier.
At first glance, this kind of dominance looks improbable. In most industries, a monopoly this profitable — ASML’s gross profit margins were 52 per cent in the third quarter — would attract competition
June Yoon Financial Times 21 January 2026
https://www.ft.com/content/e47375fb-8c9f-4a4f-8526-8d46ededb805
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