It is time to stop talking about the Middle East being on the brink of a much more serious war
West left powerless as Israel claims its biggest victory yet against Hezbollah
The Americans have very few levers to use against any side. They cannot, by law, talk to Hezbollah and Hamas as they are classified as foreign terrorist organisations.
With the US elections only weeks away, they are even less likely to put pressure on Israel than they have been in the last year.
But in the course of the last year Netanyahu has made a habit of defying President Joe Biden’s wishes about the way Israel is fighting.
Despite providing Israel with the aircraft and bombs used in the raid on Beirut, President Biden and team were spectators.
Jeremy Bowen International Editor, BBC News
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ckgn5xkp3rko
Israel had been looking for a chance to kill the leader of Hezbollah.
Its intelligence had long tracked Hassan Nasrallah and it recently learned he planned to move, which would have closed the window of opportunity, according to a senior official who asked not to be identified discussing confidential matters.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu gave the order Friday from his hotel room in New York, just before giving a fiery speech to the United Nations General Assembly that rejected a US-backed push for a cease-fire in Lebanon.
Washington, Israel’s closest ally, got only a last-minute heads up as its latest bid to stop the violence failed.
Bloomberg 28 September 2024
Why the World’s Biggest Powers Can’t Stop a Middle East War
The United States’ ability to influence events in the Mideast has waned, and other major nations have essentially been onlookers.
Over almost a year of war in the Middle East, major powers have proved incapable of stopping or even significantly influencing the fighting, a failure that reflects a turbulent world of decentralized authority that seems likely to endure.
Stop-and-start negotiations between Israel and Hamas to end the fighting in Gaza, pushed by the United States, have repeatedly been described by the Biden administration as on the verge of a breakthrough, only to fail.
The current Western-led attempt to avert a full-scale Israeli-Hezbollah war in Lebanon amounts to a scramble to avert disaster. Its chances of success seem deeply uncertain after the Israeli killing of Hassan Nasrallah, the longtime leader of Hezbollah on Friday.
New York Times 29 September 2024
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/29/world/middleeast/middle-east-war-peace-nasrallah.html
When Israel Iran’s aging supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, could always rely on the close alliance, unwavering loyalty and deep friendship of Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of the Lebanese militia Hezbollah.
Mr. Nasrallah in a massive airstrike on Friday, it abruptly wiped out a singular force in Mr. Khamenei’s hierarchy of close associates.
Iran had for 40 years nurtured Hezbollah as the main arm of its proxy network of militias, as a forward defense against Israel. But in the past two weeks, Hezbollah’s capacity began to crumble under wave after wave of Israeli attacks on its leadership, arsenal and communications.
Now, fissures have opened within the Iranian government over how to respond to Mr. Nasrallah’s killing, with conservatives arguing for a forceful response and the moderates, led by Iran’s new president, Masoud Pezeshkian, calling for restraint.
New York Times 29 September 2024
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/29/world/middleeast/iran-hezbollah-israel-nasrallah.html
Tillbaka till Wall Street och Stockholm 28-29 september 2024
https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/09/wall-street-och-stockholm-28-29.html
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