Tänkbara scenarier för fred i Ukraina - Ukraine Needs to Be Realistic About Its Goals, Czech President Says

Nationalekonomen John Maynard Keynes fick kusligt rätt i sin bok ”The Economic Consequences of the Peace” från 1919. 

I den förutspådde han att det feltänkta Versaillesfördraget skulle tvinga fram hyperinflation i Tyskland och så småningom en ny diktatur och krig.

I en kommande analys från tankesmedjan Frivärld förklarar jag varför Keynes resonemang inte håller i denna nya värld.

Om Ukraina skulle tvingas att acceptera ett fredsavtal innehållande slopade skadeståndsanspråk mot Ryssland bör EU kräva rysk kompensation för kostnaderna som kriget har åsamkat EU-länderna. 

Om Ryssland vägrar detta kan den ryska centralbankens reserver i väst förbli evigt inlåsta.

Stefan Fölster SvD 23 september 2024

https://www.svd.se/a/MnPkxE/tank-efter-fore-fred-i-ukraina

After European countries expressed reservations about the legality of outright seizing the assets, they agreed that it would be possible to back a $50 billion loan with the stream of interest that the assets earn.

A senior Biden administration official, who requested anonymity to speak about internal discussions, said that 

The United States needed assurances that codify the commitments of the Group of 7 leaders, who had agreed that Russia’s sovereign assets would remain immobilized until the war ends and until Russia repays Ukraine for the damage it had caused.

New York Times 17 September 2024

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/09/group-of-7-officials-how-to-use-300.html

Ukraine Needs to Be Realistic About Its Goals, Czech President Says

President Petr Pavel of the Czech Republic, a former senior NATO general who has been one of Ukraine’s most robust backers in its war with Russia, says he thinks it is time for Ukrainians and their supporters to face what he says is reality.

The Czech presidency is a largely ceremonial post but the views of Mr. Pavel, who was elected last year by a wide margin, are generally aligned with those of the country’s center-right government under Prime Minister Petr Fiala.

“The most probable outcome of the war,” he said, “will be that a part of Ukrainian territory will be under Russian occupation, temporarily.” 

But, he added, that “temporary thing,” could last years.

Neither Ukraine nor Russia, Mr. Pavel said, can expect to secure its maximalist goals. 

For Ukraine, that includes the recovery of all the territory, including Crimea, seized by Moscow in 2014. 

For Russia, it is a demand that Ukraine formally cede land claimed by Moscow, including four regions only partially controlled by Russian forces.

“To talk about a defeat of Ukraine or defeat of Russia, it will simply not happen,” Mr. Pavel said in his office at Prague Castle this past week,

 “So the end will be somewhere in between.”

Mr. Pavel has considerable influence on security issues as a former chief of the Czech military’s general staff and past chairman of NATO’s military committee.

New York Times 23 September 2024

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/23/world/europe/ukraine-war-goals-russia-czech-president.html

Urban Bäckström och Stefan Fölster har nog inga problem med att byta uppfattning om det behövs.

Ett exempel på det är Stefan Fölsters helomvändning om EMU.

När han fick sin lön från Svensk Handel skrev han och varnade för den EMU-anslutning han senare som anställd hos Svenskt Näringsliv propagerade för.

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2008/10/skall-urban-bckstrm-och-svenskt.html