Röd öppning Red Opening 27 November 2023

 



 China’s Energy Revolution

Nations will be urged at COP28 to triple renewable energy capacity this decade. The world’s top polluter is already on track, propelled by President Xi Jinping’s strategy to use remote regions to host vast green projects.

It’s a campaign that promises an upheaval across the energy sector: curbing China’s demand for fossil fuels, trimming its reliance on energy imports and steering the world’s biggest polluter toward a feasible path to zero out its greenhouse gas emissions.

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2023-china-solar-wind-power-cop28/


China’s carbon emissions have either peaked already or will do this winter,

 seven years ahead of schedule. They may plateau for a year or two but will then go into exponential decline for mechanical and unstoppable reasons.

The country’s target of net zero by 2060 is likely to be achieved a decade earlier than previously assumed, and perhaps earlier than in Europe. 

This is a remarkable turn of events.

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

China’s CO2 emissions may be falling already, in a watershed moment for the world (telegraph.co.uk)


Global carbon emissions from energy use may peak next year. But...

Based on current trajectories those emissions will rise by more than 30% by 2050—putting the world’s climate goals out of reach.

First, clean-energy investment must rise from $1.8trn this year to around $4.5trn a year by the early 2030s. And crucially, heavy-emitting industries must begin to make their contributions. 

These sectors—materials, chemicals, heavy transportation—already generate almost one-third of global emissions. Based on current trajectories those emissions will rise by more than 30% by 2050—putting the world’s climate goals out of reach.

The challenges to decarbonising heavy-emitting industries are legion. These parts of the economy are both carbon-intensive and hard to electrify. 

Getting them to net zero requires building new low-carbon manufacturing facilities, developing sustainable fuels and green-hydrogen supply, and deploying small modular nuclear reactors and carbon-capture and storage capacity. Many of these technologies are nascent and all are uneconomic at small scale. 

Mark Carney





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China Scrambles to Contain a Looming Zhongzhi Shadow-Bank Meltdown

Over the summer, Zhongrong International Trust, which is part of the group, defaulted on many of its high-yielding investment products and fueled fears of financial contagion from China’s worsening property downturn. 

In September, two large state-owned financial institutions stepped in to provide assistance to Zhongrong, which had around $108 billion of assets under management at the end of 2022.

https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/china-scrambles-to-contain-a-looming-shadow-bank-meltdown-e7af1450


Turmoil at Zhongzhi sparks alarm over China’s $3tn shadow financing industry

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2023/08/can-rest-of-globe-expand-if-china-is.html



Investors See Interest-Rate Cuts Coming Soon, Recession or Not

Recent data has fueled bets that cuts could come under a variety of circumstances

many worried that yields were being driven higher by a surge in new Treasurys needed to fund a growing federal budget deficit, not just by a strong economy and bets on higher-for-longer rates.

Sam Goldfarb WSJ 

https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/investors-see-interest-rate-cuts-coming-soon-recession-or-not-d30646c9


The Long-lasting Effects of 2021’s Zero Interest Rates

As we all know, the Fed hiked aggressively in 2022, and continued to do so for longer than most had expected this year. Higher interest rates should mean higher costs of servicing debt for companies. The problem, illustrated by Saravelos, is that big companies had enough time in 2020 and 2021 to negotiate very low fixed rates.

The debate revolves over how long rates stay at current levels. 

If they truly remain higher for longer, they’ll bite eventually. 

Monetary tightening hasn’t bitten at all yet. That doesn’t mean it never will.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-11-27/wall-street-outlooks-for-2024-try-something-new-humility


European Commission Vice President Vera Jourova sees an effective anti-graft system emerging in Ukraine 

as the war-torn nation looks toward opening membership talks with the bloc.

“Ukraine is doing everything to strengthen the fight against corruption,” Jourova said during a press briefing in Kyiv after her meetings with the country’s prime minister, justice minister and chiefs of anti-graft institutions.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-27/eu-commission-s-jourova-praises-ukraine-s-anti-graft-effort





ECB officials may soon revisit their €1.7 trillion pandemic bond portfolio 

and reconsider how long they will replace maturing securities, President Christine Lagarde said.


“We have indicated that we would continue reinvesting until at least 2024,” 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-27/ecb-s-lagarde-sees-signs-of-softening-in-euro-area-labor-market


TILTRO and Target

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2023/10/jacques-de-larosiere-unless-new.html


APP och PEPP

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2022/09/raise-three-key-ecb-interest-rates-by.html



The Ridiculous Sideline Cash Myth

It is impossible for money to flow from cash into stocks or bonds because for every buyer of an asset there is a seller of that asset 

so the amount of cash on the sidelines never changes due to such transactions.

Individuals can differentiate where they hold cash moving it from a checking account to a money market fund that yields more interest, but that is the full extent of it.

Buying stocks, bonds, or even houses with cash does not impact the amount of sideline cash. It simply transfers the cash from one holder to another holder.

Mish

https://mishtalk.com/economics/the-wall-street-journal-perpetuates-the-ridiculous-sideline-cash-myth/


Svenska elpriser har normaliserats

Spotpris per månad i elområde 3 (Stockholm). Öre per kilowattimme.


https://www.dn.se/ekonomi/carl-johan-von-seth-sa-klarade-vi-energikrisen-trots-domedagsprofetiorna/


Audiobooks Just Got Cheaper 

Spotify’s new offering for eligible Premium users is changing the medium’s economics

https://www.wsj.com/tech/personal-tech/the-new-economics-of-buying-or-renting-audiobooks-cd5bfaae



Retorik - Rhetoric 

Invented by educators and philosophers in ancient Greece, the discipline of rhetoric — originally defined as the study of persuasion and now more commonly known as the art of public speaking — remained the cornerstone of education until the 1700s.

Across Western Europe, students from about the age of 12 onward learned logic, social skills, critical thinking and speech techniques as a single, integrated discipline by means of a 14-step verbal and cognitive curriculum known as the progymnasmata.

you’ve ever noticed that it’s not necessarily the most knowledgeable or pedigreed people who lead but the best communicator

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/27/opinion/disconnection-polarization-speech.html


Retorik är läran om talekonsten, såväl i teorin som i praktiken, och den utvecklades under antiken på 400-talet f.Kr.

Den mest välkända definitionen kommer från Aristoteles som beskrev retoriken som "konsten att vad det än gäller finna det som är bäst ägnat att övertyga"

https://sv.wikipedia.org/wiki/Retorik


Retorik i tiden av Göran Hägg

Retorik i tiden är tänkt både som en underhållande historiebok och en användbar handbok. Exemplen börjar i antiken, med bland annat Ciceros försvar för en misstänkt giftmördare och Jesu Bergspredikan, och sträcker sig fram till kung Carl XVI Gustafs tsunamital och Barack Obamas accepterande av nomineringen till presidentkandidat

https://www.bokus.com/bok/9789113098722/retorik-i-tiden-23-historiska-recept-for-framgang/



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